HORSE RACING

Kentucky Derby 2024

First Edition

WHEN: Saturday, May 4

WHERE: Louisville, Kentucky

TV: NBC/USA Network starting at noon; race off at 6:57

This is the 150^th running of the Kentucky Derby. Despite its age, Churchill Downs is always seeking to grow the fan base, particularly among younger potential patrons. That must be why several years ago they introduced the concept of “seat license fees” where for a mere $2,000 one could purchase the “right” for five years to pay several hundred dollars for a seat on a metal bench in the open air exposed to the sun or the elements.

This year they constructed banks of seats around the renovated paddock. It is actually an attractive venue although I can only imagine the cost (to patrons, that is).

Then there is the new themed restaurant. The theme is Sports Illustrated covers. For those of my generation, SI borders on a sacred institution. I have read countless narratives of how we used to eagerly await that week’s delivery of our subscription. Then they stopped publishing on a weekly basis, Then they started publishing AI-generated articles. Now they are awash in some kind of financial scandal. But nostalgia has its value, especially when you are celebrating 150 years of existence.

But if all of the above is a little too pricy to attract younger people, the call to the post this year will be made by Martha Stewart – really.

THE FIELD

The factual information following is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

I rely heavily on Beyer speed figures (published in the DRF, where the higher the figure the better. When there is more than one number within the parenthesis, the most recent comes first.

1) Dornoch (Danny Gargan/Luis Saez) – The last time a horse won from the first hole was 1986 with Ferdinand. The theory is that in a large field, horses will be rushing to get to the rai, compromising the horse on the inside unless he can get out away from the field early. While that is this guy’s style, his Beyer top is a 91, albeit on a muddy track at Aqueduct.

2) Sierra Leone (Chad Brown/Tyler Gaffalione) – He projects to be the second betting choice based on two wins in graded stakes including the Grade 1 Blue Grass where he ran his top Beyer of 98. His closing style of running would turn out to be an issue if he cannot work out a trip through the 20-horse field.

3) Mystik Dan (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez, Jr) – Only one entrant has a higher Beyer than the 101 he got in Oaklawn’s Grade 3 Southwest – on a muddy track. (According to Randy Moss on the TDN Writers’ Room, he benefitted from a strong rail bias in play that day.) His next race resulted in an 89 Beyer finishing third in the Arkansas Derby 4 ¼ lengths behind Just steel.

4) Catching Freedom (Brad Cox/Flavien Prat) – He won the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles, earning a 97 Beyer. He has some sharp morning works at Churchill and is going to post under the combo of one of the best trainers and jocks in the game.

5) Catalytic (Saffie Joseph, Jr./Jose Ortiz) – He has three career starts with one win. After racing near the front in the Florida Derby he was inhaled by Fierceness, finishing 13 lengths back but earning his career best Beyer of 90.

6) Just Steel (Wayne Lukas/Keith Asmussen) – He is the most experienced entrant with11 career starts and running for the most experienced trainer, the 88-year old “Coach.” He startled the Arkansas Derby running a solid second, earning a Beyer top of 95, but there is little else to recommend him.

7) Honor Marie (Whitworth D. Beckham/Ben Curtis) – Talk about unknown connections. The trainer worked for Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown so he knows about winning. Jockey Curtis is a respected rider in Europe. The colt won Churchill’s Kentucky Jockey Club at two (92) and ran a good second in the Louisiana Derby (96).

8) Just a Touch (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) – Unraced at two but running increasing Beyers this year, culminating in a 96 with a second place in the Blue Grass.

9) Encino – SCRATCHED

!0) T O Password (Daisuke Takayanagi/K. Kimura) – One of two entrants from Japan, this guy is undefeated to two starts but has never faced accomplished foreign runners.

11) Forever Young Yoshito Yahagi/R. Sakai) – The other Japanese entrant is also undefeated, nut among his five wins are solid wins in the Saudi Derby and the UAE Derby. My pattern with Timeform speed ratings is to subtract 12 from Timeform’s 107 and 101, still giving him respectable Beyer comps. But Randy Moss who knows even more than I do about Beyer numbers has computed 101 for each of the Gulf races.

12) Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario) – He shows an increasing pattern of Beyers in seven career starts, culminating in 94’s in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star. In the former he finished fourth by 21/2 lengths behind Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.

13) West Saratoga (Larry Demerrite/Jesus Castanon) – This year’s “feel good” story features the trainer who has twice survived “you only haze x to live” diagnoses. Unfortunately the horse has nothing 16)

14) Endlessly (Michael McCarthy/Umberto Rispoli) – This will be his first ever dirt race following four starts on the grass and two on a synthetic. His top Beyer of 91 came in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (sic).

15) Domestic Product (Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – A top Beyer of 87 is usually sufficient for me to not even consider for the win spot. Then I look at the Brown-Irad combo; then I see a string of fast works; then I look at odds in excess of 30-1; then I see that he is the only entrant to have ever finished in front of Fierceness. My resolve is crumbled.

16) Grand Mo the First (V. Barboza, Jr./E. Jaramillo) – He is looking for his first win on the dirt, but did finish only a neck back of Domestic Product in the Tampa Bay Derby (82).

17) Fierceness (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – The one thing we know for sure is that he will not be making history by becoming the first horse to win the Derby from post 17. That’s because the scratch inside of him moved him up to post 16. Nut he is still the best horse on paper with three dominating wins including the Grade 1 Florida Derby (110) and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (105).

18) Stronghold (Phil D’Amato/A. Fresu) – It’s a sign of the declining state of California racing that the Santa Anita Derby winner has a morning-line of 20-1. But you do not have many winners of one of the most productive Derby preps running a mere 89 Beyer.

19) Resilience (Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado) – Speaking of the decline of major Kentucky Derby preps, it has been a long time since Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial has been a significant factor. It has even been downgraded to a Grade 2 and could be in line for a further cut. This guy ran a 90 Beyer, matching the fig he got when fourth in the Risen Star.

20) Society Man (Danny Gargan/Frankie Dettori) – The son of Good Magic ran in his first stakes race after breaking his maiden (82) in March at the Big A. The stakes was the Wood (see above) and his odds were 107-1. He finished second with a Beyer of 87.

21) Epic Ride (John Ennis/A. Beschizza) – His first dirt start resulted in a third, 5 1/4 lengths in arrears to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass (90).

Weather

Last I saw, there is hope for a sunny day with possibly only passing showers. Unlike yesterday when the tracks were “sloppy/yielding”, today they are “good/good.”

Picks

As I noted, I think Fierceness is the best horse and I will use him in any multi-race bets and 12^th race exotics. But I cannot make win wagers on short-priced horses, although I think 5-2 is a fair price. I am underwhelmed by the likely second favorite horse, Sierra Leone. The horses I think provide the best value are Catching Freedom. Honor Marie, Just a Touch and Forever Young. But the one I have become increasingly interested in is Domestic Product. I will definitely place a win wager on him.

©Tom Noonan 2024

2023 BELMONT STAKES

first edition

When: Saturday, June 10

Where: Elmont, New York

TV: FS1 begins its coverage at 11:00 with Fox kicking in at 4:00.

The race is scheduled to go off at 7:02.

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

So locusts and pestilence must be next — strike that, we had and still have the pestilence. But racing in this Triple Crown season did not need another threat to the health and safety of its participants. Yet it is here in the form of smoke-filled skies coming from our neighbor to the north. As I write this, air quality has improved to the point where Belmont can conduct its Friday card, and hopefully air quality will remain at a level sufficient to allow racing (and normal activity) to happen on Saturday.

Racing has been battered over the last five weeks. There are the still-unexplained fatalities at Churchill Downs followed by a fatal breakdown on the Preakness undercard. While much has been done to improve health and safety, we have not eliminated the tragic occurrences. I will write more about that in the upcoming weeks.

In addition to the feature, the New York Racing Association loaded up the card with eight other graded stakes – five of which are Grade I’s, — beginning at 12:29. Their explicit purpose was to make for a good day of racing even when a Triple Crown is not on the line. It has ruined many other weekend cards that lost their own graded stakes, but Saturday’s card is a beauty.

In addition to the feature, the must-see race is the 10^th, the Metropolitan Handicap featuring Breeders’ Cup champion Cody’s Wish. If the powers-that-be in racing had a soul, he would have been last year’s Horse of the Year. I would wager that many of the readers of this cannot name the actual winner of that award. But he was an embodiment of the power of money in racing who, after an admittedly spectacular (but short) career, was retired to stud. But for a sport that could use all the favorable attention it can get, Cody’s Wish would have been a no-brainer choice. I defy anyone to watch the story of the horse with his namesake Cody and keep a dry eye.

THE FIELD

Here is the field in post-position order with trainers and jockeys. The numbers in parentheses are Beyer speed figures where the higher the figure the better. When there is more than one number in the parenthesis, the most recent comes first.

1) Tapit Shoes (Brad Cox/Jose Ortiz) – In a race that may not have a lot of early pace, my suspicion is that trainer Cox entered this one to create a more favorable scenario for his two closers in the field. He has one career win from five starts, with his Beyer top of 91 coming in his last start, a second to Red Route One in Oaklawn’s ungraded Bath House Row (sic) Stake.

2) Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez) – After his win in the Blue Grass Stakes (99) the conventional wisdom by the racing commentariat agreed that even if he did not win the Derby, he was a certainty to take this race. He had a difficult trip at Churchill, but finished seventh, 9 ¼ lengths back (94). That was his only off-the-board finish in six starts where he won four races.

3) Arcangelo (Jena Antonucci/Javier Castellano) – He won the Peter Pan (97), the traditional prep for this race. It was only his fourth career win and his second straight W, in a pattern of increasing Beyer numbers.

4) National Treasure (Bob Baffert/Jon Velazquez) – As a sign of the competitiveness of this race, the Preakness winner with a last-race Beyer (98) exceeded by only one entrant is the fourth morning-line pick at 5-1. While that was only his second career win, I think he has been under-estimated despite on-the-board finishes in four Grade 1 stakes.

5) Il Miracolo (Antonio Sano/M. Meneses) – NYRA will be changing the name of this race to the Tapit Stakes for next year. This colt is one of six in this year’s field of nine who was either sired by Tapit or whose dam was. I just stated the only positive about his chances in this Grade 1 race. He has two wins, earning a total of $103K. His Beyer top is a 77, and in five career stakes he lost by a total of 79½ lengths.

6) Forte (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – While National Treasure may be under-estimated, I think this guy may be over-estimated. He is the morning-line favorite (at 5-2) just as he was in the Derby prior to being a vet scratch. He does have four Grade 1 wins (one a disqualificationfor a drug positive), but has not hit his two-year old Beyer top of 100 from the Juvenile.

7) Hit Show (Brad Cox/Manny Franco) – He has won at three different tracks, has increasing Beyers in every start and was near the front in the Derby until he “flattened” out. He finished fifth, 6 ¼ lengths in arrears with his Beyer top of 98.

8) Angel of Empire (Brad Cox/Flavien Prat) – The Kentucky Derby favorite (at 4-1) came from way back to finish third (104) only 1 ½ lengths back. He won the Arkansas Derby (94) for his fourth career win.

9) Red Route One (Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario) – While he has run creditably in graded stakes, his only dirt win came in Oaklawn’s ungraded Bath House Row Stakes (sic) where he matched his top Beyer of 92. He ran fourth in the Preakness (91), 4 ¾ lengths back.

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting “mostly sunny” with a high of 78. An Air Quality Alert is in effect until at least midnight Friday.

ANALYSIS

The only entrants I cannot see winning are Tapit Shoes, Il Miracolo and Red Route One. National Treasure had everything his own way in the Preakness, and it is possible he will be the lone speed, but I think either Tapit Shoes and/or Il Miracolo may go with him. I did not like Forte in the Derby and still do not like him, particularly if he goes off as the favorite. Arcangelo’s “statement” win came in The Peter Pan at Belmont, but he only won by a head over a nondescript group.

Of the remaining three, Hit Show’s morning-line odds of 10-1 makes him an appealing prospect for a win wager. I think Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire are “must use” in the multi-race wagers.

ROYAL ASCOT

An event I have become addicted to is the five-day meeting at Royal Ascot. I witnessed the Queen, whose perhaps only public responsibility is convening Parliament, being advised that the first post was coming up so she could leave on time. She is no longer with us, and I doubt her son has the same love of the sport. After all, he scheduled his coronation on Kentucky Derby Day. It is top quality and entertaining racing with tons of long-shots. Be sure to stay for the end-of-the-card sing-along. Make your prawn and cucumbers sandwiches and chill your champagne. I think it is NBC that broadcasts it, and it runs June 20 through June 24 in the morning on EST.

2023 PREAKNESS

first edition

When: Saturday, May 20

Where: Baltimore, Maryland

TV: NBC at 7:01. Earlier races are on TVG/FDTV.

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

*****

There are discussions — as there always are — of changing the Triple Crown schedule because of the view that today’s trainers are not willing to submit their horses to the compressed five-week schedule. I am all in favor of doing what is right by the horse. Indeed, that should be the sine qua non. But I think current routines, including the use of medications and supplements could be more of a factor than the fragility of the animal. Having said that, we are looking at a field with only the Derby winner coming back from the first leg — last year the connections skipped the race.

With the scratch of the horse likely to be the second choice with a real possibility of winning, we are looking at a field of only seven. I cannot say I am overwhelmed by excitement.

THE FIELD

1) National Treasure (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) – Baffert is free of the ban by Churchill Downs and is bringing this colt and the overwhelming favorite for the Black Eyed Susan on Friday who was touted as the best three-year old in the country. She did not win, and despite my high hopes for this one last year, he continues to disappoint. He only has one career win, but has run Beyers in the mid-90’s in four consecutive graded stakes.

2) Chase the Chaos (Ed Moger, Jr./Sheldon Russell) – This is an example of the racing office’s badgering trainers to enter horses in high profile races. His only two dirt races have been less than spectacular with a 73 fig finishing seventh by 17 lengths in Santa Anita’s Grade 2 San Felipe and a 40 on a muddy Canterbury track last August.

3) Mage (Gustavo Delgado/Javier Castellano) – The Derby winner could not have picked a better spot to go for the Triple Crown in three weeks. His Derby Beyer of 105 far exceeds that of any other three-year old. It defies all historical trends that he was able to accomplish this with a prep schedule of three races in two months and a week. I am not going against him again.

4) Coffeewithchris (J.E. Salzman, Jr./Jaime Rodriguez) – Another favor to the racing office. While he is the only entrant with a win at Pimlico, his Beyer top is an 88 for 12 career starts.

5) Red Route One (Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario) – There were high hopes for him early on, but he was winless in six straight graded stakes. He got off the stakes schneid with a win in the ungraded “BthHseRowL,” matching his Beyer top of 92.

6) Perform (Shug McGaughey/Feargal Lynch) – The trainer must always be respected in stakes races, and this colt is coming off two straight wines. One, however, came in his sixth start as a maiden (79) and then in a Preakness prep, the Federico Tesio (82) where he won by a head at odds of 10-1.

7) Blazing Sevens (Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – One of his two wins came in October’s Champagne during the Belmont at Aqueduct meet (91). He was fourth in the Juvenile (93) and third by six lengths in the Blue Grass (90).

8) First Mission (Brad Cox/Luis Saez) – SCRATCHED

THE WEATHER

Chance of showers, but temps in the 70’s.

ANALYSIS

Mage is clearly the class of the field in which the balance of the seven horse field probably belongs in a Grade 2 stake (except for the two who are not graded stakes quality). The scratch of potential upsetter First Mission makes this an especially unappealing wagering proposition. I will use the favorite in multiple race bets. I also find a trifecta of the three sired by Good Magic (Mage, Perform and Blazing Sevens) worth a small investment.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2023

Only Edition

WHEN: Saturday, May 6

WHERE: Louisville, Kentucky

TV: NBC/Peacock starting at noon; race off at 6:57

This is already one of the most unusual Derbies in recent history — and that is before the horses approach the starting gate. While there are often late scratches after the entries are drawn, the original field of 23 (including the “also eligibles”) is down to 18, with the latest being the scratch of the presumed favorite, Forte, Saturday morning. The three winners of the five major American prep races are all scratched.

The main development at Churchill this week, however, is a rash of fatalities in the week leading up to the event. Starting two Thursdays ago, four horses have died, including one entered in the field. Two others died “suddenly,” causing the Horse Racing Commission to rule out of the Derby the trainer of those two. I suspect the number of scratches (particularly of presumed favorite Forte) may be related.

THE FIELD

The factual information following is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

1) Hit Show (Brad Cox/Manny Franco) – It’s become an article of faith that a horse breaking from the one-hole cannot win since the last to do it was Ferdinand in 1986. My understanding is that is because the starting gate almost forces horses to head to the rail when the gate opens. Now that the Derby has gone from a two-gate set-up to accommodate 20 horses to a much narrower single gate, I am not sure how valid the theory is. Nonetheless, this guy exits a remarkably unproductive prep, the Wood at Aqueduct. He has been the favorite in all five career starts, winning three, but losing to the 59-1 shot Rocket Can in his last. He has shown a pattern of increasing Beyers, topping out at a 93 in March.

2) Verifying (Brad Cox/Tyler Gaffalione) – If you eliminate a sub-par effort in the Oaklawn slop (85), he is the only horse with back-to-back Beyers in the upper 90’s. He just missed in the Blue Grass (99) by a neck to Tapit Trice.

3) Two Phil’s (Larry Rivelli/Jareth Loveberry) – He may be the most difficult horse to figure out in the field. While he was showing a pattern of increasing Beyers on dirt surfaces, his top fig was an 88 at the Fairgrounds. He then blew away the field on a synthetic surface in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes, winning by 5 ¼, earning the field’s top last-race Beyer of 101. He has four career wins, and just worked a bullet 5 furlongs on the dirt track at Hawthorne.

4) Confidence Game (Keith Desormeaux/James Graham) – As difficult as the preceding guy may be to figure out, he is next on that list. His top Beyer is a 94 on Oaklawn’s sloppy Rebel track where he earned a 94 in his win at 19-1. His prior top was an 83 on a fast Churchill strip. He was a $25,000 purchase at the Keeneland September sale even though his sire’s stud fee is $75.000. Trainer Desormeaux has an unorthodox approach to buying horses, ignoring standard things like pedigree and conformation. He liked this one and so far has been proven right, banking almost $800K. In addition, no one has looked better training in the morning at Churchill.

5) Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez) – He figures to be one of the top two betting choices coming off four straight victories, including in the Blue Grass (99). His running style is a come-from-behind, which necessitates a good trip, something that can happen in a 19-horse field as we saw last year.

6) Kingsbarns (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) – Only one horse has won the Derby after not running at two in the 140 years since Apollo did it in 1882. That lone horse was Justify, who completed an undefeated career by winning the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. This colt is also undefeated, winning his third race in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby where be Beyered a 95.

7) Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen/John Velazquez) – This is the remaining Derby contender in the stable of Bob Baffert who has been barred from Churchill for two years because of his multiple drug overages. He bought this colt for $775,000 and had him on the Derby trail until he was required to “outplace” him after his win in the Sham on January 8. He had a pattern of increasing Beyers until earning a 95 in the Sham. In two starts for Tim Yakteen, however, his Beyers have declined with a 90 in the Rebel, and then an 86 in the Arkansas Derby. Neither of those fields appeared to be all that strong. He returned from the Oaklawn races and has turned in solid works at Santa Anita, including a bullet on April 28.

8) Mage (Gustavo Delgado/Javier Castellano) – He is the second horse in the field who will be attempting to win without racing at two. His three-year old schedule, however, is even more compressed than that of Kingsbarns, having first started on January 28. He ran a good second in the Florida Derby (94), finishing only a length behind the heavily-favored Forte.

9) Skinner (John Shirreffs/Juan Hernandez) – SCRATCHED

10) Practical Move (Tim Yakteen/Ramon Vazquez) – SCRATCHED

11) Disarm (Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario) – It seemed like every horse sired by Gun Runner won last year, including this guy in his Saratoga maiden win (86). This year, both the sire and this colt do not appear to be so dominating. He has yet to win this year, including defeats to less than stellar opponents in the Louisiana Derby (90) and the Lexington (90). He ran in the Lexington three weeks ago because he did not yet have sufficient qualifying points to crack the field.

12) Jace’s Road (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) – He has the look of a horse that was entered so his owners could say they had a Derby horse. He ran his best figure of 90 at the end of last year in an ungraded stake at the Fairgrounds. This year has been nothing to get excited about, with an 85 in the Louisiana Derby and a 76 in the Southwest.

13) Sun Thunder (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez) – Trainer McPeek is always someone to be concerned about when he has horses in stakes that are longshots. This guy has only one career win, with his Beyers topping out at 89 (twice).

14) Angel of Empire (Brad Cox/Flavien Prat) – His Arkansas Derby win (94) was the most visually impressive of any major prep races in this country. While his final Beyer was comparatively low, it follows a string of steadily increasing figures and he definitely looks like a horse with room for further improvement.

15) Forte – (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – SCRATCHED

16) Raise Cain (Ben Colebrook/Gerrardo Corrales) – He won Aqueduct’s Grade 3 Gotham at odds of 24-1 where he earned his top Beyer of 90. From there he went to the Blue Grass, finishing fifth (89), almost seven lengths in arrears.

17) Derma Sotogake (Hidetaka Otonashi/Christophe Lemaire) – “No horse from Japan has ever won the Derby, but until the 2021 Breeders’ Cup no horse from there ever won a Cup race. That year they won two, and continued their success when a grandson of Sunday Silence took the UAE Derby. The winner of that race has never been successful in Louisville on the First Saturday in May (or, September for that matter).” That is an edited version of what I wrote last year about that entrant from Japan. (Do you remember Crown Pride?) I discounted his chances because my calculation of his Beyer winning in Dubai worked out to a 92. This year’s comparison, however, earned a 97 which puts him in contention with the other top contestants. (I subtract 12 from the Timeform Rating to arrive at a Beyer equivalent.) He has now won four of his last five, including two at 1 1/8 and the UAE race at 1 3/16, which should allay concerns about his sire’s breeding (Mind Your Biscuits by Posse).

18) Rocket Can (Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado) – This colt by Into Mischief has been sizzling in the morning breezes at Churchill and is adding blinkers for the race. He lost by 4 ½ to Forte in the Fountain of Youth (91), but regressed in the Arkansas Derby as the favorite, running fourth (86) behind Angel of Empire, King Russell and Reincarnate.

19) Lord Miles (Saffie Joseph/Paco Lopez) – SCRATCHED

20) Continuar (Yoshito Yahagi/Ryusei Sakai) – SCRATCHED

21) Cyclone Mischief (Dale Romans/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – He has two career wins, with his Beyer top of 91 from finishing third in the Florida Derby.

22) Mandarin Hero – (Terunobu Fujita/K. Kimura) – He has the best Beyer on dirt (100) of anyone in the field, finishing a close second in the Santa Anita Derby in what is traditionally the top Kentucky Derby prep race. He won his first four races in Japan, and is a neck away from being undefeated in six career starts.

23) King Russell – (Ronald Moquett/Rafael Bejarano) – He broke his maiden in his fifth career start and then went to the Arkansas Derby, finishing second (87) at odds of 59-1.

THE WEATHER

The forecast is for a sunny warm day with little or no rain. The track was listed as fast in the early morning.

ANALYSIS

I start this process by eliminating horses I do not think can win. By post-position order, that eliminates Hit Show, Confidence Game, Kingsbarns, Reincarnate, Mage, Disarm, Jace’s Road, Sun Thunder, Raise Cain, Rocket Can, Cyclone Mischief and King Russell. Great! We only have six left.

While I think any of those six could win, I am truly excited about two. My top pick back in the day when there were 23 possibilities and an “also-eligible” list of three, was Mandarin Hero. If you follow racing, you know that horses from Japan are winning everywhere — and I do not mean on the East Coast and West Coast of this country. They have indeed won top races here, including in the Breeders’ Cup. But they also win in Europe, the Middle East and Australia. In Dubai’s World Cup this year they took the top four spots. Mandarin Hero has the only triple-digit Beyer on dirt. He earned his in the Santa Anita Derby, losing by a nose to Practical Move. It proved his form in Japan could translate here.

But I changed my top selection after listening to Andy Beyer in the “Writers’ Room” of The Thoroughbred Daily News. He explained that he has not had any success in computing Beyers for foreign races. He does not simply subtract 12 from the Timeform Rating as I do. But he was clear that the performance of Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby far exceeded any of his competitors in this field, and even compared favorably to that of the older horses who ran in the World Cup the same day. That is good enough for me to pick the horses from Japan as the top two.

2022 BELMONT STAKES

first edition

When: Saturday, June 11

Where: Elmont, New York

TV: NBC at about 5:30 with early coverage beginning on FS2 at 12;30, then moving to CNBC. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:44

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

There is a potential superstar on the Saturday card at Belmont Park, but it is in the Metropolitan Mile, third jewel of the Triple Crown notwithstanding. The ninth race features two standout four-year-olds in Flightline and Speaker’s Corner, scheduled to go off at 4:43 on CNBC [sic].

The Belmont Stakes itself shapes up as an interest race with both the Kentucky Derby winner and two others who ran credible races in Louisville.

In addition to the features, the New York Racing Association loaded up the card with seven other graded stakes – only one of which is not a Grade I, beginning at 12:33. Their explicit purpose was to make for a good day of racing even when a Triple Crown is not on the line. It has ruined many other weekend cards that lost their own graded stakes, but Saturday’s card is a beauty, although the dirt races have small fields.

THE FIELD

1) We the People (Rodolphe Brisset/Flavien Prat) – The morning line favorite (2-1) projects as the lone speed in a small field. He had a very impressive score in the Peter Pan (103), leading wire-to-wire to win by 10 ¼ lengths. He had a very disappointing finish against a mediocre field in the Arkansas Derby (73) at odds of 5-2, finishing seventh by 13 lengths.

2) Skippylongstocking (Joseph Saffie, Jr./Manny Franco) – The colt did not embarrass himself in the Wood Memorial (91) with a third-place finish, 3 ¾ lengths behind Mo Donegal (today’s second choice on the morning line) and Preakness winner Early Voting. He did not show improvement in the Preakness, however, finishing fifth, 7 ½ back (94). He only has two wins in ten career starts.

3) Nest (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) – Trainer Pletcher knows a thing or two about training and thinks that a mile-and-half is what this filly wants. She ran second by two lengths as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks (91) in her last start. Her penultimate effort in Keeneland’s Ashland was an impressive tour-de-force, winning by 8 ¼, earning her her career-best Beyer at 92. She has won four of six lifetime starts.

4) Rich Strike (Eric Reed/Sonny Leon) – He is getting more respect here than he did at 81-1 in the Kentucky Derby, but is still just the third choice in the morning line at 7-2. I am glad he won at Churchill since I now realize the “S. Leon” in his PP’s is not Sandy Leon, the name of the Red Sox’ former catcher. His two wins both came at Churchill Downs, with the first one being a 17-length score in which he was claimed for $30,000. That’s looking like a nice investment since he just has to finish today’s race to push his career earnings past the $2 million mark.

5) Creative Minister (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez, Jr.) – The gray colt by Creative Cause is making his fifth career start (all this year) and demonstrating a pattern of improving Beyers, culminating in a 100 for his third-place finish in the Preakness. His two career W’s came on the slop at Keeneland (83) and then at Churchill on the First Saturday in May (96), albeit in an optional $80K claimer.

6) Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – Breaking from the one-hole in the Kentucky Derby’s 20-stall starting gate is considered a major disadvantage because it forces your horse to head for the rail and to get squeezed back. Somehow, this guy ended up going 10-wide while the winner, Rich Strike, broke from the 20-hole and came up the rail weaving in and out of those in front of him. While that is one reason the Derby is often a chaotic event, but it is interesting how often horses that turn out to be good survive the event. This Uncle Mo colt is the only one with a win at Belmont, breaing his maiden there in October (82). He and Nest are the only entrants with wins in two graded stakes, with this guy winning the Remsen (90) and Wood Memorial (96).

7) Golden Glider (Mark Casse/Dylan Davis) – You always have to respect trainer Casse, but the same need not be said about his entrant. In four graded stakes his only top three finish was a second in the Peter Pan, 10 lengths back where he matched his Beyer top of 87.

8) Barber Road (John Ortiz/Joel Rosario) – The $15,000 yearling purchase has only won two of nine starts, but has banked $650,000 thanks to decent finishes in five stakes, including three graded. His Derby finish was not that bad either (94), ending up sixth, only 4 ¾ lengths back.

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a “slight chance of showers” after 2:00.

ANALYSIS

The only entrants I cannot see winning are Skippylongstocking and Golden Glider. I am not inclined to wager on either We the People or Nest because the odds will be too short. In the case of Nest she has not demonstrated she can run a Beyer needed to win this.

I will wait for the final odds before wagering, but if I have to pick a winner, I will go with Mo Donegal, and play around with combinations of him, Rich Strike, Creative Minister and Barber Road.

ROYAL ASCOT

An event I have become addicted to is the five-day meeting at Royal Ascot. I witnessed the Queen, whose perhaps only public responsibility is convening Parliament, being advised that the first post was coming up so she could leave on time. She enters the track in a horse-drawn carriage accompanied by members of the royal family and assorted hangers-on, although her attendance this year is uncertain (at least to me). It is top quality and entertaining racing. Be sure to stay for the end-of-the-card sing-along. Make your prawn and cucumbers sandwiches and chill your champagne. I think it is NBC that broadcasts it, and it runs June 14 through June 18.

2022 PREAKNESS

final edition

When: Saturday, May 21

Where: Baltimore, Maryland

TV: NBC at 4:00. Earlier races are on TVG. The race is scheduled to go off at 7:01.

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

*****

It’s wonderful to come out of a Kentucky Derby with no whiff of controversy, nor Bob Baffert – there may be a connection there – but one of racing’s truly great “feel good” stories. A horse that was claimed out of his first race and was trained by a low-key guy who went through a devastating barn fire, and was ridden by someone whose first name I did not know until after he won, took the biggest prize in American racing at odds of 80-1.

The connections of Rich Strike have decided to skip the Preakness, saying it was not in the best interests of their colt. Despite the blathering coming out of the racing commentariat about the need to change the spacing of the Triple Crown races, it is refreshing to hear the owners and trainer actually saying they are thinking of the horse. That’s in contrast to a certain high-profile figure who does not even know what medications are being given to his horses.

THE FIELD

1) Simplifcation (Antonio Sano/John Velazquez) – The hot Derby pace played to his closing style, allowing him to get up for fourth, 3 ½ back of the winner. At 35-1, he was one of the best values in the Derby field, excepting a certain entrant who went off at 80-1. He is one of the field’s more accomplished runners, hitting the board in all four of his graded stakes, including the Derby (96), Florida Derby (92), the Fountain of youth (96) and Holy Bull (91).

2) Creative Minister (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez, Jr.) – He is the only winner from the First Saturday in May at Churchill Downs to be entered in the Preakness. He did not get a garland of roses for his effort since his event was an $80,000 optional claimer for non-winners of a race other than his maiden. He does show some ability, with an increasing Beyer pattern (92, 83, 76).

3) Fenwick (Kevin McKathan/Florent Geroux) – If you think a colt who took five starts to break his maiden (88), and then came back to finish last in the Blue Grass Stakes, 36 lengths back (44) is worth a wager, you will get a square price.

4) Secret Oath (Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez) – She figures to be the most overbet entrant in the field. First, she is a filly taking on the boys. Second, there is her trainer, 86-year old Lukas, who has become something of horseracing’s elderly sage. There is no question that she is very talented. She won the Kentucky Oaks (94), topping what was widely considered the toughest field in that race’s history. She faced colts once before, finishing third, 3 ½ lengths back in the Arkansas Derby (87) as the 3-2 favorite. The winner of the race, Cyberknife, finished 18^th in the Derby, 42 lengths back. The filly was entered in the field because it projected as the weakest of the major Derby preps. In fairness, the second horse ran decently at Louisville, finishing 6^th, less than 5 lengths back. And the 7^th place finisher at Oaklawn came back to win the Peter Pan Stakes impressively.

5) Early Voting (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) – Trainer Brown kept him out of the Derby, fearing that the wealth of early speed would compromise his chances. So we know where he will be going coming out of the gate. He won the first two with that style (87, 76) and just got caught in the Wood Memorial (96) by Mo Donegal.

6) Happy Jack (Doug O’Neill/Tyler Gaffalione) – In the Blue Ribbon Derby Analysis, we observed that in his three starts in graded stakes he had finished 50 lengths in arrears to the winners. Following his 14^th place finish in the Derby (75), we can now make that 69 lengths in four graded stakes.

7) Armagnac (Tim Yakteen/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – If you think Happy Jack is overmatched, this guy finished behind him in the Santa Anita Derby at odds of 72-1 (83). He came out of that event and wired a $100,000 optional claimer where he went to the post at 5-2 (93) — which may be all you need to know about the quality of that field. He is another temporary refugee from the Bob Baffert barn trained by Yakteen.

8) Epicenter (Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario) – He looked like a certain winner down the stretch in Louisville until a horse named Rich Strike, ridden by a jockey named Sonny Leon, nailed him. When your sire is Not This Time, it may have been an eerie foreboding of what transpired. He is the most accomplished entrant with four wins and two close seconds in his last six starts (100, 102, 98, 88, 87, 80). Four of those were in graded stakes, including wins in the two Derby preps at the Fair Grounds.

9) Skippylongstocking (Saffie Joseph/Junior Alvarado) – He was finally able to crack 90 on the Beyer scale in his ninth career start, earning a 91 with a third-place finish in the Wood Memorial.

THE WEATHER

HOT!!!

ANALYSIS

When an 80-1 shot who was not even in the field early in the morning the day before wins America’s most prestigious race, one should be reluctant to categorize horses as having no shot. We’ll save that for the less intrepid.

That said, I cannot imagine Fenwick, Happy Jack or Skippylongstocking winning.

Two that would be major longshots, but not in the realm of, say, a Rich Strike, are Creative Minister and Armagnac.

Of the remaining four, I think the most likely winner is Epicenter. But we are looking for value, and I do not think he represents that at a morning line of 6-5. Nor do Secret Oath ((9-2) or Early Voting (7-2). I think Simplification will go off at higher odds than the morning line of 6-1 and is worth taking a shot on.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2022

First Edition

WHEN: Saturday, May 7

WHERE: Louisville, Kentucky

TV: NBC starting at 2:30; race off at 6:57

As much as many of us would like to be rid of Bob Baffert and his psychodrama, he remains a big factor in this year’s Kentucky Derby. As a result of his suspension, he transferred two horses who could be major factors in this year’s race to Tim Yakteen, the trainer (for now) of Taiba and Messier.

This looks like one of the most competitive fields in some years with a number of lightly-raced and improving horses all capable of springing an upset.

THE FIELD

The factual information following is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

1) Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – The Wood Memorial winner (96) has a pattern of increasing Beyers over his career (96, 90, 90, 82, 72). His closing style may not be what the Derby winner has displayed in recent years, and he will have to work through a crowded field as he breaks from the one hole. He finished 4 ½ lengths behind White Abarrio in the Holy Bull.

2) Happy Jack (Doug O’Neill/Rafael Bejarano) – After breaking his maiden in his first start (75), he proceeded to lose his next three starts by a combined 50 lengths (83, 82, 61).

3) Epicenter (Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario) – The well-regarded son of Not This Time was installed as the second choice on Churchill’s morning line. He has won four of his last five starts, including wins in the Louisiana Derby (102) and the Risen Star (98) after breaking his maiden at Churchill (80). He has a pattern of increasing Beyers and figures to be near the front early.

4) Summer Is Tomorrow (Bhupat Seemar/M. Barzalona) – He finished second in Crown Pride’s UAE Derby. He has no Beyer numbers, but I subtract “12” from the Timeform Ratings to yield Beyer equivalents of 87 in each of his last two starts.

5) Smile Happy (Ken McPeek/Corey Lanerie) – He won both starts at two, winning at Keeneland (82) and then Churchill’s Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club (90). This year he has run second in two graded stakes losing to Epicenter (94) and Zandon (94).

6) Messier (Tim Yakteen/John Velazquez) – He was a star in the barn of former trainer Bob Baffert, winning Santa Anita’s Robert B. Lewis by 15 lengths in February, earning a 103 Beyer that no entrant has surpassed. He was upset in the Santa Anita Derby by the rising star in former trainer Baffert’s stable, Taiba, where he ran a 99. He projects as part of the early pace.

7) Crown Pride (Koichi Shintani/C. Lemaire) – No horse from Japan has ever won the Derby, but until the last Breeders’ Cup no horse from there ever won a Cup race. Last year they won two, and continued their success when this grandson of Sunday Silence took the UAE Derby. The winner of that race has never been successful in Louisville on the First Saturday in May (or, September for that matter). By all accounts, no one has looked sharper training at Churchill than this colt who worked a blistering 46 2/5 on April 22. The downside is that the Beyer equivalent of his Dubai win is only a 92 by my calculation.

8) Charge It (Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez) – Ever since Justify broke the long-standing history of horses needing a race at two to win the Derby, lightly-raced animals have become a trend. This guy is one of four who made their first start at three, and one of seven (!) with four or fewer career starts. He only has one win (93), but ran a credible second in the Florida Derby (93) in just his third career start.

9) Tiz the Bomb (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez, Jr.) – He is looking for his first win in a race originally carded for a dirt track. (His lone dirt win came in a race taken off the turf at Ellis Park in July (68)). Against dirt horses he ran two sevenths (65, 41).

10) Zandon (Chad Brown/Flavien Prat) – His impressive win in the Blue Grass (98) vaulted him to prominence as the morning line favorite. He has that impressive pattern of increasing Beyers (98, 93, 90, 80), has strong works, and figures to be running late.

11) Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher/Joe Bravo) – He has that increasing Beyer pattern that is always a positive sign. Yet he only has two wins from six starts, the most recent of which was in a $50K optional claimer (80). He has finished on the board in his two graded stakes starts, a fourth in the Risen Star (93) and third in the Louisiana Derby (96).

12) Taiba (Tim Yakteen/Mike Smith) – This is one extremely talented colt. There are not many who begin their racing career with two triple digit Beyers, ,meaning he now has one more than anyone else in the field, and as many as the rest of the field combined. But – and this is a really big but – those have been his only races. He first ran on March 5, winning by 7 ½ lengths (103) and then beating what was believed to be a very tough, albeit short, field in the Santa Anita Derby (102). No horse won the Derby during the 20^th century who did not race at two. That historical reality was shattered when Justify won not only the Derby but the Triple Crown in 2018. In an article appearing in the Thoroughbred Daily News, Chelsea Hackbarth disclosed that the colt was placed on the vet list after the first race with the reason “unsound.” When trainer Yakteen was asked whether he was aware of the reason for this, he relied,”No.” This would mean that he is either grossly negligent and not concerned about the horse’s welfare, or he is lying. As a former employee of Bob Baffert, either possibility could be the case.

13) Simplification (Antonio Sano/Jose Ortiz) – He is one of the more experienced entrants with seven career starts, including a 3 ½ length win in the Fountain of Youth (96). He then finished third, 2 ¼ back, as the favorite in the Florida Derby (92).

14) Barber Road (John Ortiz/Rey Gutierrez) – His two wins came in low-level races facing claiming horses (75, 71). He then embarked on what – on paper – looks like an impressive resume, running second or third in five consecutive stakes, including a second in the grade I Arkansas Derby, earning $650,000(!) His Beyers, however – 88, 83, 86, 78, 84 – say more about the caliber of his opponents than on his chances of winning the Kentucky Derby.

15) White Abarrio – (Saffie Joseph/Tyler Gaffalione) – He has four career wins, the same as Epicenter and one less than Tiz the Bomb. He was a comfortable winner by 4 ½ lengths in the Holy Bull (97) and then came from off-the-pace to score in the Florida Derby (96). His jockey may well be the most underrated top rider. In a jocks room with the likes of the Ortiz brothers, Luis Saez, Joel Rosario and Flavien Prat, he was nonetheless the top rider with 19 wins at the Keeneland spring meeting.

16) Cyberknife (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) – The Arkansas Derby winner exits what is generally regarded as the weakest of the preps even though Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath ran third in the event. His ran his Beyer top at 92. He closed the race by running the last thre furlogs in a glacial 39 seconds. He has two other career wins (87, 80).

17) Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch/Julian Leparoux) – He was a late entrant to the field following his disappointing last-place finish, 21 lengths back, in the Florida Derby (64) after taking the early lead. His trainer’s less-than-compelling rationale for entering was that there was no reason not to. It looks like the owners wanted to. Nonetheless, he did win two graded stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, although neither of those Beyers (86, 88) matched his career best of 90 from his first career start in early September.

18) Tawny Port (Brad Cox/Ricardo Santana, Jr.) – He needed qualifying points by winning Keeneland’s Lexington three weeks ago (89). In his lone start facing quality dirt horses, he finished fifth in the Risen Star (86), 7 ¾ lengths behind the likes of Epicenter and Zandon.

19) Zozos (Brad Cox/Manny Franco) – Yet another member of the lightly-raced crew that did not race at two. Nonetheless, he has had an impressive start to his career, breaking his maiden (70), winning an optional $100K claimer by 10 lengths (92) and then running second to Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby (98). His running style indicates he will be gunned early to get near the front from the 19-hole.

21) Rich Strike (Eric Reed/S. Leon) – Only made the field on Friday morning with the scratch of Wayne Lukas’ Ethereal Road. He has won at Churchill, but in a $30,000 maiden claimer (65). That is also his only win, and has been running on Turfway’s synthetic surface. His last dirt start was in a $99K stake at the Fair Grounds in which he finished fifth, 14 lengths in arrears (64).

THE WEATHER

The forecast is for a cloudy day with little or no rain. While the track was listed as sloppy in the early morning, my guess is that it will be fast for the Derby itself.

ANALYSIS

I start this process by eliminating horses I do not think can win. By post-position order, that eliminates Happy Jack, Summer Is Tomorrow, Pioneer of Medina, Simplification, Barber Road, Cyberknife, Classic Causeway, Tawny Port, Zozos and Rich Strike. Great! We only have 10 left.

I think Mo Donegal is compromised by his running style breaking from the 1 hole. Messier and Charge It are speed horses that I cannot see sticking around, particularly because of the other front runners in the field. It is hard to toss Tiz the Bomb because of the way he has been working on the Churchill strip in the morning, but he has a dismal record racing on dirt.

I think there are too many questions surrounding Crown Pride and Taiba to warrant a bet.

That leaves Epicenter, Smile Happy, Zandon and White Abarrio. Smile Happy needs to pick up a couple of lengths on Epicenter and Zandon, and his price should warrant taking a risk.

2021 BELMONT STAKES

first edition

When: Saturday, June 5

Where: Elmont, New York

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 2:30. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:49

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

I hate to be a downer on this, but drugs in horse racing has become an issue. You may have heard that the winner of the Kentucky Derby tested positive and is likely to be disqualified for illegal drugs for only the second time in the race’s history. Two of the trainers in this field have had recent positives. One is actually referred to on the backstretch as “Drug” instead of his given name of “Doug.” They trained the second and third Derby betting choices, which set up the prospect of a horrifying trifecta that could have been racing’s death knell. (Neither of their horses tested positive in the Derby; I am speaking only of the inevitable public outcry.)

If you want more on drugging, I have written about the Medina Spirit positive at tenoonan.com, but this is an interesting race. It may actually be one of the more fascinating Belmont’s in recent history, particularly since a Triple Crown is not on the line.

In addition to the feature, the New York Racing Association loaded up the card with eight other graded stakes, including seven Grade I’s, beginning at 12:47. Their explicit purpose was to make for a good day of racing even when a Triple Crown is not on the line. It has ruined many other weekend cards that lost their own graded stakes, but Saturday’s card is a beauty, although the dirt races have small fields.

THE FIELD

1) Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher/Kendrick Carmouche) – This guy’s claim to fame is closing from way back to take the Grade II Wood Memorial at 72-1 (89). He also closed in the Derby but finished 13^th, 16 lengths back (80). While a deep close may seem appealing in a 12-furlong race, tactical speed tends to be a more favorable approach in the Belmont.

2) Essential Quality (Brad Cox/Luis Saez) – I did not care for this colt at 3-1 odds in the Derby, and the morning line of 2-1 here is no less unappealing. He finished fourth at Churchill, only one length back, breaking his unbeaten record. He has a pattern of increasing Beyers, culminating with a 100 in Louisville. He has also had two excellent works since then, and appears primed for a big effort.

3) Rombauer (Mike McCarthy/John Velazquez) – His impressive win in the Preakness produced the field’s highest Beyer at 102, an improvement of 14 points over his prior top. In an interesting twist, his winning jockey at Pimlico is moving to another entrant, Hot Rod Charlie.

4) Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill/Flavien Prat) – The Derby’s third-place finisher (100) won what appears to be the strongest Derby prep, the Louisiana Derby (99). He also, along with Essential Quality, has a pattern of increasing Beyers in each of his races.

5) France Go de Ina (Hideyuki Mori/Ricardo Santana, Jr.) – He parlayed a sixth-place finish, by 10 ½ lengths in the UAE Derby into a seventh-place finish, by 17 ½ lengths, in the Preakness (77). It is difficult to come up with a rationale for backing this guy.

6) Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – He showed sufficient ability in the Florida Derby (94) to warrant serious attention in Kentucky, but went off at 10-1 and split the field, finishing ninth, 10 3/4 back (87). If his morning-line odds of 6-1 hold, there is no way I would bet him.

7) Rock Your World (John Sadler/Joel Rosario) – He was my Derby pick but got in a world of trouble at the start, taking him out of his front-running game (69). That should not be an issue in a much smaller field.

8) Overtook (Todd Pletcher/Manny Franco) – He is a million-dollar yearling purchase who has won just one race with career earnings of $131K. He has two placings in graded stakes, but his Beyer top is only 84.

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a “sunny” day with a high of 83°.

ANALYSIS

I think this shapes up as a great horse race with, in my opinion, five potential winners. I am tossing Bourbonic, France Go de Ina and Overtook. If the 6-1 morning line on Known Agenda holds, I will definitely pass.

I will wait for the final odds before wagering, but if I have to pick a winner, I will go with Hot Rod Charlie.

ROYAL ASCOT

An event I have become addicted to is the five-day meeting at Royal Ascot. I witnessed the Queen, whose perhaps only public responsibility is convening Parliament, being advised that the first post was coming up so she could leave on time. She enters the track in a horse-drawn carriage accompanied by members of the royal family and assorted hangers-on. It is a top quality and entertaining racing. Be sure to stay for the end-of-the-card sing-along. Make your prawn and cucumbers sandwiches and chill your champagne. I think it is NBC that broadcasts it, and it begins in the morning from June 15.

2021 PREAKNESS

final edition

When: Saturday, May 15

Where: Baltimore, Maryland

TV: NBCSN at about 4:30 and then NBC. Earlier races are on TVG. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:47

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

*****

It seems that controversy and the First Saturday in May go together like – let’s say – bourbon over shaved ice with a sprig of mint. The 2018 Kentucky Derby did not seem controversial at first. It was then revealed that Justify, trained by Bob Baffert, tested positive for a drug following the Santa Anita Derby win that he needed just to get into the field for the Louisville event. In 2019, Maximum Security, the first horse to cross the finish line was DQ’d for interference, the only such occurrence in the race’s history. Oh, lest I forget, the disqualified horse was trained by Jason Servis who has since been indicted for multiple counts of drug violations under federal laws.

There were two more noteworthy drug positives on the First Saturday in May in 2020, but they occurred not at Churchill Downs which had its signature event postponed until September, but at Oaklawn Park. Charlatan, trained by Bob Baffert, tested positive following his win in the Arkansas Derby. Gamine, who went on to become the Eclipse-winning three-year-old filly and is also trained by Bob Baffert, tested positive after her winning race.

You may have heard that this year, Medina Spirit, trained by Bob Baffert, was first across the line but then tested positive for betamethasone. I wrote about Baffert’s duplicitous response in this post. And despite Baffert’s increasingly prolific record of drug positives, there are many who dismiss this one as inconsequential. A common thread is that it is a therapeutic medication that is not performance-enhancing.

This defense, however, ignores two important factors. The first is that a drug with therapeutic benefits is not permissible if it exceeds established threshold standards that are in a state’s regulatory framework. The other is that a medication that doesn’t “enhance performance” can still be a serious concern if it masks pain and causes a horse to exert itself when it should not be racing.

I went back and looked at the 2019 Blue Ribbon and that year’s controversy, and found this:

“It should be obvious at this point that there is nothing that occurs in America that cannot be the source of bitter controversy, no matter how ill-informed the disputants are. If you can have a public health crisis such as a measles outbreak and still have anti-vaxers, I guess that says it all.”

How quaint. There must have been a measles flare-up that year that brought out the same foolishness we are now witnessing for a life-threatening epidemic.

THE FIELD

1) Ram (D. Wayne Lukas/Ricardo Santana, Jr.) – When one pays $375,000 for a yearling, one is anticipating running at Churchill Downs on the First Saturday in May, and this guy did, winning impressively. It wasn’t in the Derby, however, but in an allowance for “non-winners of 1-other-than” (81). He broke his maiden in his preceding start for a $50K tag (74), meaning the owners were prepared to take a substantial bath on their investment. Those are his two wins from nine starts.

2) Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen) – This Laoban colt showed a lot of promise as a two-year-old. He ran third, two lengths behind Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (92). He then went to Churchill, breaking his maiden in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club (80). He hasn’t lived up to that promise this year. After finishing in front of only two horses in the Rebel (81), he was dusted in the Blue Grass, finishing 16 lengths behind the Juvenile champ (73). He ran seventh in the Derby (90) at 49-1.

3) Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) – You may have heard he won the Kentucky Derby (102) going wire-to-wire. The odds-on favorite in the Santa Anita Derby was upset by Rock Your World, the 5-1 third choice, finishing second by 4 ¼ lengths (94). He was less than a length away from being undefeated in his first three starts (94, 99, 76), including the W in the Grade III Robert B. Lewis before running into a potential freak in stablemate Life is Good. He was second to that now-injured horse by eight lengths (95), but still was rated as the top entrant in what has been the leading Derby prep in recent years.

4) Crowded Trade (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) – This colt’s 95 Beyer in the Gotham has been surpassed only by Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon. Nonetheless, he disappointed in the Wood at 3-1 (87) where he was defeated by the 72-1 Bourbonic.

5) Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – He won the Grade III Lecomte (93) at the Fair Grounds, ran third, 1 ¾ back of Mandaloun in the Risen Star (96), before battling Hot Rod Charlie down the stretch and finishing second (96), two lengths back in the Louisiana Derby. Those two ran second and third in Louisville.

6) Rombauer (Michael McCarthy/Flavien Prat) – He has yet to win on the dirt, but did notch his Beyer top of 88 running third, 5 ¾ lengths back in the Blue Grass behind Essential Quality. He has a win on the turf and one on a synthetic in three combined starts. He does, however, have three exceptionally good works on Santa Anita’s dirt track.

7) France Go de Ina (Hideyuki Mori/Joel Rosario) – It’s hard to get a read on this guy. He won a maiden and an allowance in Japan last year before running sixth, 10 ½ lengths back in the UAE Derby. His Timeform numbers do not suggest a horse who will be competitive here.

8) Unbridled Honor (Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez) – He hit his Beyer top running on a sloppy Keeneland track, although he still finished second, 2 ¾ back of the winner King Fury. In three prior starts on a fast dirt track, his top was a 78.

9) Risk Taking (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) – He looked like he was moving in the right direction, breaking his maiden (82) and then winning the Withers (89). But he was an immense disappointment in the Wood, finishing seventh (78), 6 ¾ lengths in arrears to the longshot Bourbonic as the favorite.

10) Concert Tour (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) – Baffert’s two entrants each have three wins, which is more than anyone else in the field. This colt has a profile similar to Medina Spirit’s. He went to the Arkansas Derby undefeated, two of his three wins coming in graded stakes (94, 94). But he disappointed as the odds-on favorite, finishing third (87), 2 ½ back of Super Stock.

THE WEATHER

As of Friday, the National Weather Service is predicting a sunny day with a high of 78°.

ANALYSIS

The Preakness is often won by a horse exiting the Derby even if it is not the Derby winner. Nonetheless, some hot prospects, including two fillies, have won the Second Jewel. I am not seeing such a hot prospect here, but I am not enamored of Medina Spirit.

I do not think the following have much of a shot: Ram, Keepmeinmind, France Go de Ina, and Unbridled Honor.

Risk Trading has yet to run a Beyer exceeding 89, but has been working in company with Crowded Trade, who I think has a shot.

Baffert’s other entrant, Concert Tour, has a profile very similar to Medina Spirit’s pre-Derby record and is the only horse besides that one with three career wins.

But I am going to stick with the Louisiana Derby as the key prep and pick Midnight Bourbon on top. For a high-value and potential bomber, I will go with Rombauer.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2021

First Edition

WHEN: Saturday, May 1

WHERE: Louisville, Kentucky

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage on NBCSN at 1:00; race off at 6:57

Horse racing is a sport that lends itself to controversy, whether it is the vocal fans on different sides of an issue, or disagreements between those fans and people on the outside opposed in principle to the very notion of racing. This year, however, presents the possibility that the winning owners of two of America’s most prestigious races will be ones accused of wrong-doing beyond a scale I have ever seen.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum is one of the most influential figures in racing on the international scene. He is the leader of Dubai and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates. He also owns the likely heavy favorite in the Kentucky Derby, Essential Quality.

According to a report in the Lexington Herald-Leader: “the family division of the British High Court found that Sheikh Mohammed had arranged the kidnapping of two of his adult daughters and forcibly returned them to Dubai after they attempted to flee on different occasions. It also found the sheikh ‘conducted a sustained campaign of fear, intimidation and harassment’ of his now ex-wife, Princess Haya….”

One of the daughters, Sheikha Latifia, has released a video in which she claimed being held as a prisoner and feared for her life, according to a report in The New York Times. Human rights experts with the United Nations have made repeated requests to the Dubai government for proof that the Princess is “alive and well,” but have been stonewalled.

The UK High Court decision has led human rights lawyers in the United States to ask Kentucky’s Horse Racing Commission to ban Sheikh Mohamed and Essential Quality from the Derby. The attorneys had sought similar relief in 2019, but were denied because reports of the Sheikh’s human rights abuses were based only on media reports unlike the current situation where there is a judicial determination. According to NBC’s Oaks coverage, the KHRC denied relief this time because the Sheik’s behavior did not violate any of the state’s regulations. So I guess kidnapping – and perhaps murder – do not run afoul of the licensing requirement of “good character.”

The Kentucky Oaks has its own problem with a potential winning owner facing significant legal issues. According to Ray Paulick in The Paulick Report, Amer Abdulaziz of Phoenix Thorughbred III, owner of Oaks’ entrant Crazy Beautiful, has been “identified under sworn testimony in federal court as a conspirator to launder some of the estimated $4 billion scammed from people around the globe in a cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme known as OneCoin.” Regulators around the world, including France, the UK, UAE and Australia have taken action to either prevent him from racing or to freeze his assets.

As Paulick said in his opinion piece, the Abdulaziz and Phoenix allegations are “not a good look for an industry that routinely seems to value money over ethics.” And let’s not forget that the first horse to cross the finish line in the 2019 Derby was Maximum Security, trained by Jason Servis who subsequently was indicted by the United States government for his involvement over several years in illegal drugging. (The indictment does not allege that the Derby was affected by the illicit doping.) Servis’ behavior, as well as that of fellow trainer Jorge Navarro, was widely suspected on the backstretch and by bettors, but it took the federal government to bring those charges.

That is the same Maximum Security whose owners shipped their horse to run in the Saudi Cup just after evidence that the ruler of Saudi Arabia had ordered the murder, dismemberment and disappearance of an American journalist.

There are many in racing, including a disturbing number in prominent positions, who prefer to ignore reality and go about life in their own isolated bubble. But racing continues to face crisis after crisis, many of our own making, but the failure to address significant issues of human rights abuses, as well as potentially massive fraud, will do little to restore the public confidence that is essential for our sport’s survival.

THE FIELD

The factual information following is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

1) Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – Over the years, the rail was the least desirable of the 20 stalls in the starting gate, often being referred to as “The Dreaded One Hole.” It’s the result of a large field of horses suddenly racing to get closer to the rail, thereby squeezing the horse in TDOH who had to use early speed to avoid literally being forced into the rail. Churchill implemented a new starting gate last year that no longer requires an auxiliary gate that was several feet from the main gate. That enables the new gate to be placed further away from the rail, so TDOH may no longer be TDOH. Going into the final round of the prep races, Todd Pletcher was not viewed as having any Derby contenders. When those races were over, he had four. This colt looks like the best of the bunch, and he will be ridden by perhaps the best jockey in America. He broke his maiden in his second start (79). He had a disappointing effort in the Remsen (80), took some time off before having another disappointing race in the Sam F. Davis (77). But blinkers were added and he returned with an 11-length win in an allowance (82). In the Florida Derby he pulled away to win by 2 ¾ lengths (94). He clearly has the look of a horse getting better at the right time.

2) Like the King (Wesley Ward/Drayden Van Dyke) – Many people do not consider the Grade III Jeff Ruby Stakes (sic) a major Derby prep even though Churchill considers it a 100-point race and Barbaro won the big one coming from here. He looks more like a Grade III horse than a classic winner. The Jeff Ruby is his only stakes score (86). That was on a synthetic surface. His lone dirt start resulted in a 38 Beyer.

3) Brooklyn Strong (Daniel Velazquez/U Rispoli) – Churchill Downs uses a point system to determine entries in the 20-stall starting gate. Points are awarded based on the quality of the race, with the major preps being worth 100 points for the winner, 40 for second and so on. In most years, it typically requires 50 points to get in. This year, 42 horses earned points, with this guy ranking 42nd. He only is in because of all the defections in front of him, including two more on the Sunday of Derby week. Having said that, he came to the Wood Memorial with three wins in four starts, breaking his maiden in a $40K maiden claiming (53), and two starts later winning a stake for NY-breds (77). He won the Grade II Remsen on a sloppy Aqueduct track (94), his last start before the Wood. He ran mid-pack all the way, finishing fifth, 4 ¾ lengths back (82) of the 72-1 Bourbonic.

4) Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen) – This Laoban colt showed a lot of promise as a two-year-old. He ran third, two lengths behind Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (92). He then went to Churchill, breaking his maiden in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club (80). He hasn’t live up to that promise this year. After finishing in front of only two horses in the Rebel (81), he was dusted in the Blue Grass, finishing 16 lengths behind the Juvenile champ (73).

5) Sainthood (Todd Pletcher/Corey Lanerie) – Has raced three times this year, breaking his maiden on February 13 (76) and then running second in the Jeff Ruby Stakes by a length (84).

6) O Besos (Greg Foley/Marcelino Pedroza) – He is a horse exiting the Louisiana Derby who has demonstrated a pattern of increasing Beyers in every start. After his first start on a sloppy Churchill Downs strip (60), he broke his maiden (77), had an allowance score (83) before running fourth (88), 7 ½ back of Mandaloun in the Risen Star. He turned the tables on the Louisiana Derby fav, finishing third (96) at 29-1, almost 10 lengths in front of him.

7) Mandaloun (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) – His Louisiana Derby may be the biggest disappointment of any of the horses entered in the major preps. He had that pattern of increasing Beyers, has already won at Churchill, and after adding blinkers won the Grade II Risen Star (98). He sported three impressive works and went into the Louisiana Derby as the 3-2 favorite. He proceeded to run a dismal sixth, finishing 11 ¾ lengths in arrears (82). Since that race he has been burning up the Churchill strip in morning breezes.

8) Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) – The odds-on favorite in the Santa Anita Derby was upset by Rock Your World, the 5-1 third choice, finishing second by 4 ¼ lengths (94). Trainer Baffert had three of the most highly rated Derby prospects in early March, but this is the only one going to Louisville. He was less than a length away from being undefeated in his first three starts (94, 99, 76), including the W in the Grade III Robert B. Lewis before running into a potential freak in stablemate Life is Good. He was second to that now-injured horse by eight lengths (95), but still was rated as the top entrant in what has been the leading Derby prep in recent years.

9) Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill/Flavien Prat) – I like a pattern of increasing Beyers, no matter the caliber of the race, and this guy has shown that, with only a blip in his penultimate effort. In his last, he won the Louisiana Derby with a 99, a fig exceeded only once by another entrant. After breaking his maiden, he had the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (at odds of 94-1) before being edged by Essential Quality, losing by ¾ length (94). He was 5-2 in his next start, finishing third in the Robert B. Lewis by a neck (91) to one of Baffert’s stars, Medina Spirit. Taking the lead at the Fair Grounds as the second choice, he drew off to win by two.

10) Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith) – Money Mike Smith takes the mount from Joe Talamo who had steered the colt to three consecutive good performances in graded stakes. He won the Grade III Lecomte (93) at the Fair Grounds, ran third, 1 ¾ back of Mandaloun in the Risen Star (96), before battling Hot Rod Charlie down the stretch and finishing second (96), two lengths back in the Louisiana Derby.

11) Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) – He is a $725,000 Keeneland September purchase who took four starts to break his maiden (79) at 1 1/8 miles, a month before the Wood Memorial. Sent off at 16-1, he raced wide throughout the race before taking the lead only to get nailed at the wire by Bourbonic, earning a new Beyer top of 89.

12) Helium (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) – If not for the inestimable trainer, I would suspect this is a case of the owners simply wanting to have a horse in the Derby as a marketing opportunity. While Bob Baffert proved with Justify that a lightly-raced horse can win the Derby, this entrant takes that notion a considerable step forward – or perhaps backwards would be a more apt description. He raced twice as a two-year-old, comfortably winning two seven furlong races (75, 76) on Woodbine’s synthetic surface. He was not seen in a starting gate for more than four months, returning in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 6. He won that event by ¾ length (84) over Hidden Stash, a horse projected to be one of the longest shots on the board. That means he will go to the Derby post off a single 1 1/16 mile race in over six months. It doesn’t strike me as a recipe for success.

13) Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver/Rafael Bejarano) – When a horse goes through the September Keeneland yearling sale and does not even bring the sire’s stud fee, it is not a good sign, indicating his physical conformation was not that good or there were suspect X-rays. This colt has nonetheless placed in two graded stakes, the Tampa Bay Derby (83) and Sam F. Davis (83) before running a distant fourth in Essential Quality’s Blue Grass, 10 lengths back (82). It is nearly impossible to come up with a single reason suggesting this guy could win.

14) Essential Quality (Brad Cox/Luis Saez) – Godolphin is one the major players in international racing, if not the major player. They have long wanted to win this race, at one pointing predicting a victory within five years. That was many years ago and they have yet to have any notable success. But here they have the likely favorite, a winner of all five career starts including four graded stakes. Most recently he won the blue Grass Stakes as the odds-on favorite, but needing to dig in down the stretch to prevail by a neck over Highly Motivated. He has a consistent Beyer pattern, running 97, 96 and a 95 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

15) Rock Your World (John Sadler/Joel Rosario) – Only one horse has won the Derby without running at age two in the past 137 years. That horse was Justify who won in 2018 on his way to the Triple Crown. This guy almost ran at two, making his first start on January 1, winning at six furlongs (82) on Santa Anita’s turf. His next start was also on the weeds, taking an ungraded stake at a mile (82). A horse sired by Candy Ride (Arg) by an Empire Maker mare was probably going to handle dirt, and he won easily, besting Bob Baffert’s Medina Spirit by 4 ¼ lengths, earning the field’s top career Beyer with a 100.

16) King Fury (Kenny McPeek/Brian Hernandez, Jr.) – SCRATCHED It’s unfortunate the Derby will not be run at 1 1/16 miles because this guy would have a significant experience edge. All six of his starts have been at that distance and he has won three of them, including two at Churchill Downs. He qualified for the Derby field with his win on April 10 in Keeneland’s sloppy Grade III Lexington Stakes (96) at odds of 18-1. I understand when you pay $950,000 for a Curlin yearling, you are expecting a Derby start, not a career at Parx. But his last race will be his only one in five months, and it is not as though his connections picked out a longer prep against some of the top three-year-olds.

17) Highly Motivated (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) – His owners, Klaravich Stables , wanted to sell him at the Keeneland September sale, but when the last bid did not even cover the money they had invested, they decided to race him. At two, he broke his maiden in his second career start (79) before winning an ungraded stake at Keeneland (96). He returned in Aquduct’s Grade III Gotham, finishing third (92) as the odds-on favorite, 1 ¾ lengths behind the winner. Moving on to the Blue Grass Stakes, he gave likely Derby fav Essential Quality all he could handle, leading throughout until being nicked at the wire by a neck (97).

18) Super Stock (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana, Jr.) – Each year the Arkansas Derby is one of the major preps for that race on the First Saturday in May. This year the $1 million Grade I event attracted a less-than-robust field of six. That may have been because it was a week closer to that other race, or it may have been because it was viewed as a mere training work for the 3-10 favorite Concert Tour from Bob Baffert’s barn. This colt’s only win came in August in a five and one-half furlong restricted stake at Lone Star (71). While it is not surprising that he was sent as the fourth choice in that small field at 12-1, it was surprising how easily he won. He hit a new Beyer top of 92. (Concert Tour, finishing three lengths back, has been declared from the Derby, as have three of the other finishers.)

19) Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) – Having raced at two used to be the sine qua non for a Derby winner until Justify came along. This colt is one of three in the field who first started at three, but he is really pushing the envelope, waiting until January 28 to begin his career. He broke his maiden in a Florida state-bred race (89) before beating two others in an allowance (84). He led early in the Florida Derby at 12-1 before being passed by Known Agenda (90). This is a talented horse, but I have serious reservations about his lack of seasoning.

20) Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher/Kendrick Carmouche) – This colt paid a whopping $146.50 for winning the Wood Memorial, which is not too shabby for a horse trained by someone on his way to the Hall of Fame and ridden by the jock who was a leading rider in the winter meet. He had been two-for-two at the Big A, breaking his maiden in a $50K claimer in December (69) and coming back to score by a neck in an optional claimer (71). After finishing four lengths back in another optional claimer at Parx (76), owner and breeder Calumet Farm figured the next logical step was a Grade II with a purse of three-quarters of a million dollars. As DRF’s commentary said, he was in last, “loping along at his own pace” before making up ground while running “three to four wide,” and nailing stable mate Dynamic One at the wire, earning a new Beyer top of 89.

THE WEATHER

The track is fast and the turf firm on Friday. There is no rain in the forecast and the prediction is for sunny and mid-70’s.

ANALYSIS

The first time I wagered on a horse race was the 1986 Kentucky Derby. I purchased The Daily Racing Form as a souvenir, but had no idea what all those numbers and lines for each horse meant. I did some reading and latched onto two factors. No horse had ever won the Derby with a Dosage Index higher than a certain number. Remarkably that really narrowed down the list of “contenders.” And one of my contenders was not racing on drugs. So I picked Ferdinand, the last time a horse won from The Dreaded One Hole. As I continued to read and follow the sport, I came up with several other factors that a winner needed. Those disappeared one by one (starting with the Dosage Index), and most recently eliminated the need for a race at two.

When the last two weekends of major preps were complete, I thought this was the most nondescript Derby in recent memory. The likely favorite is Essential Quality, an undefeated colt who won both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Blue Grass Stakes, although in the latter he won as the odds-on favorite by a neck in a fiercely contested stretch run. Here’s a summary of the achievements of the winners of the four other major Derby preps prior to that victory: five wins in sixteen dirt starts; the only stakes win on the dirt was a restricted event at Lone Star in August; top Beyer an 83. Yikes! But then I went back further and concluded that the most important preps were the Florida and Louisiana derbies.

So I started this process by eliminating horses I did not think could win based on Beyer numbers that were not competitive: Like the King, Brooklyn Strong, Keepmeinmind, Sainthood, Dynamic One, Helium, Hidden Stash, and Bourbonic. Great! We only have 11 left.

I then eliminated Essential Quality from consideration as a win bet — but not necessarily from the top of trifectas or superfectas . I do not think he is worth a wager at odds that could be as low as 2-1. He simply does not stand out from the rest of the field to warrant that gamble.

Eliminating half the field is the easy part. Deciding among the remaining nine entrants is not so simple. This is, for the most part, a lightly-raced group, any of which could rise up and run a breakout race. The ones I think most likely to do that are Known Agenda, O Besos, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, and Rock Your World.

I think Rock Your World’s Santa Anita Derby was the most impressive of any of the preps, so I am going to go with him. I will also wait to see the final odds and spread win bets among the longest shots of the final grouping.

2019 BELMONT STAKES

first edition

When: Saturday, June 8

Where: Elmont, New York

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 2:30. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:37

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

Even casual observers are aware that this year’s Belmont Stakes lacks any real pizazz. The Derby winner is not here, nor is the horse who crossed the finish line first. The second-place finisher is also taking a pass. Only three entrants have won graded stakes, and in the case of one, that came back on February 2.

The New York Racing Association loaded up the card with eight other graded stakes, including seven Grade I’s. Their explicit purpose was to make for a good day of racing even when a Triple Crown is not on the line. It has ruined many other weekend cards that lost their own graded stakes, but Saturday’s card is a beauty.

THE FIELD

1) Joevia (Gregory Sacco/Jose Lezcano) – After running 7^th in the Wood Memorial (78), 13 lengths behind Tacitus at odds of 52-1, he was the heavy favorite in wiring the four-horse field at Monmouth’s ungraded Long Branch Stake (89). Can’t see him stepping up big time to win this.

2) Everfast (Dale Romans/Luis Saez) – After breaking his maiden in his first start at Ellis Park, he brings a 10-race losing streak into this race. He is presumably here because of his surprise second in the Preakness (96). That Beyer surpassed his prior top of 83 in February. His Preakness performance earned him a morning line of 12-1 which I think is way too low.

3) Master Fencer (Koichi Tsunoda) – There are 111 horses entered at Belmont for Saturday. This guy is one of only two that will not be using Lasix. He finished seventh in the Derby (96), only four lengths behind Maximum Security and half-length in front of War of Will, who of course experienced significant interference but when on to win the Preakness. His two career wins came in Japan in a maiden and an allowance.

4) Tax (Danny Gargan/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – After being claimed for $50K at Keeneland, he had Lasix added to his repertoire and ran well at Aqueduct. He ran third in the Remsen (93), won the Withers (96), and was second in the Wood (95). The betting public did not give him any love (or wagers), sending him off at 36-1 in the Derby where he finished 15 lengths back in 15^th place. Switching to one of the nation’s top jockeys is not going to hurt him.

5) Bourbon War (Mark Hennig/Mike Smith) – His claim to fame is a fast-closing second in the Fountain of Youth where he finished a half-length back in second (93). That made him 3-1 in the Florida Derby where he finished 7 ½ back (90), and 6-1 in the Preakness where he was 9 ½ in arrears (85). He loses jockey Irad Ortiz to Tax, but picks up a guy known to win an occasional big race.

6) Spinoff (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – His pattern of increasing Beyers culminating in a second-place in the Louisiana Derby (95) came to a crashing halt with a 76 in the Derby where he finished 18^th, 18 lengths back.

7) Sir Winston (Mark Casse/Joel Rosario) – Seven contestants ran in the Derby and Preakness, but this colt is the only entrant with a three-digit Beyer in his career, running a 100 in Belmont Park’s Belmont prep, the Peter Pan – and he was only second. His prior tops were an 88 in the Withers, five lengths behind Tax, and 86 in the Tampa Bay Derby, finishing four back of Tacitus.

8) Intrepid Heart (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – He appears to be taking Justify’s route to the Belmont Stakes – not racing at two, limited racing at three. (Although. to be fair, Justify’s pre-Belmont route could better be described as strenuous.) This guy won his first two races as the fav (92, 85), started as the Peter Pan chalk, but finished third in a five-horse field, six back (95).

9) War of Will (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) – Only Everfast has more career starts, but the Preakness winner has won four of his ten career starts. Three of those four wins have come on a fast dirt track. He is the only entrant to race in each of the Triple Crown races, and his Derby (95) is much better than his ultimate finishing place because of the interference by DQ’d first finisher Maximum Security. And he won the Preakness with a 99.

10) Tacitus (Bill Mott/Jose Ortiz) – He is the somewhat surprising morning-line favorite. I assume it is because he finished ahead of War of Will in the Derby, although that competitor had his much-documented trouble with Maximum Security. This colt won the Tampa Bay Derby (93) and Wood Memorial (97) before being placed third at Churchill because of the disqualification.

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a “sunny” day with a high of 79°.

ANALYSIS

The two most accomplished entrants are likely to be the betting favorites. I will take War of Will over Tacitus. For a price play, I will take Master Fencer, the horse from Japan who was right in the mix at the Derby.

2019 PREAKNESS

first edition

When: Saturday, May 18

Where: Baltimore, Maryland

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 3:00. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:48

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

*****

“The Preakness is always somewhat of an anticlimax. After months of build-up for the Derby, the Preakness is all about whether we will have a horse going for the Triple Crown – at the Belmont Stakes. Instead of the countless charts listing all the Derby possibilities, we are down to humdrum coverage focused only on whether [fill in the name] can get the second leg.”

That’s how I always begin the Preakness Blue Ribbon. Well here’s some news for you: neither the Derby winner nor the horse who finished first will be making an appearance at Old Hilltop this Saturday. Country House came down with an infection and Maximum Security was declared from the race early and may have his own medical issues. We will, however, have a 13-horse field, larger than most runnings of the race – last year only seven showed up to challenge Justify.

Three of the entrants have a combined record of two wins from 24 starts, and the non-maiden in that group has now lost nine in a row. But there is also a gelding with six straights wins and a total of seven racing in Maryland (albeit all at Laurel Park). The race has certainly lost some of its lustre, but it shapes up to be a competitive group making for a great handicapping challenge. And if you think this race lacks appeal, wait until you see who shows up for the Belmont in three weeks.

So about that Derby…. It should be obvious at this point that there is nothing that occurs in America that cannot be the source of bitter controversy, no matter how ill-informed the disputants are. If you can have a public health crisis such as a measles outbreak and still have anti-vaxers, I guess that says it all.

The Derby was not the first time I lost money as a result of a disqualification, and if I continue to bet, it will not be the last. While I was initially skeptical, I think all the evidence is that Maximum Security interfered in a significant way. Those who agree rely on the Kentucky racing rule that compels this result. Those who disagree think that a different rule should have been in place. Of course there is litigation by the aggrieved owners in federal court. As much as I love to do a deep dive into detailed documents, my years of practicing law have taught me one thing – do not read a 126-page complaint that instinct tells me is frivolous.

I do not think controversy is a bad thing for sport. The good news is that the interference by Maximum Security did not result in horses and jockeys going down with possibly catastrophic consequences. I wrote about the Santa Anita fatalities in the Derby Blue Ribbon. The last thing racing needs if it hopes to survive is an accident in the only race most Americans will watch this year (especially with no possibility of a Triple Crown) that results in additional fatalities.

THE FIELD

1) War of Will (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) – Even though he crossed the line in 8^th place (95), he became the best known entrant in the Derby because he was the colt with whom first-place finisher Maximum Security so egregiously interfered. Despite being forced out and having to check, he finished less than three lengths behind Country House and only 1 ¼ behind likely Preakness fav Improbable. And that was after having to break from the Derby’s most infelicitous starting post on the rail. He owns two of the entire field’s three graded stakes wins this year (90, 94). While he flopped badly as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby (78), he stands an excellent chance here.

2) Bourbon War (Mark Hennig/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – He was a fast-closing second, by one-half length, in Code of Honor’s Fountain of Youth (93). His closing style fell victim to Maximum Security’s slow-walking of the Florida Derby (90). He has been off since then, but is adding blinkers and has had several solid works.

3) Warrior’s Charge (Brad Cox/Javier Castellano) – He is coming off two impressive wins at Oaklawn Park, breaking his maiden by six (89) and equaling that margin in a first-level allowance (97). He has America’s latest top-notch young trainer in Cox and has attracted the services of Castellano. While he has yet to face the best of his generation, he cannot be disregarded for a place in the exotic wagers.

4) Improbable (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) – He is the most accomplished member of the field, being undefeated at two, including a Grade I (96), and solid finishes in the Kentucky Derby (96), Arkansas Derby (99) and Rebel Stakes (95). But he crossed the line fifth in Kentucky as the favorite, and had none of the excuses of War of Will whom he barely beat by a length.

5) Owendale (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) – The best way of making money in this race is to bet fans they cannot name the horse with the top last-race Beyer. That would, of course, be this guy whose 98 in Keeneland’s Lexington tops the field, and he is the other graded stakes winner this year besides War of Will. In his only other graded stake start, he finished eighth, 10 lengths in arrears to the aforementioned War of Will.

6) Market King (Wayne Lukas/Jon Court) – The Coach says “you can’t win it, if you’re not in it,” and he often pairs up with Calumet Farm to race horses that seem to be over-matched in a particular race. This colt certainly fits that profile. He has won once, and most recently ran eight lengths back in the Rebel, where he earned his career-best Beyer of 83, before a dismal finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, finishing 37 back (39).

7) Alwaysmining (Kelly Rubley/Daniel Centeno) – Maryland’s hope for a win rests on the shoulders of this home-bred who has won all but one of his eight starts on the dirt track at Laurel Park, including his last six in a row. His last three were in ungraded stakes (92, 96, 87), including an 11-length win (at 1-20) in the five-horse field in the Tesio Stakes.

8) Signalman (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez, Jr.) – He exited his two-year old campaign as a promising colt, with a second-place finish in Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity (71), a third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (88) and a W in Churchill’s Jockey Club Gold Cup (84). But his sophomore campaign has been less promising, with a seventh-place finish in the Fountain of Youth (83), and a third in the Blue Grass (88). His failure thus far to exceed his two-year old Beyer does not suggest a colt about to move forward.

9) Bodexpress (Gustavo Delgado/John Velazquez) – He is still a maiden, but did not embarrass himself in the Florida Derby where he beat nine others in running second by 3 ½ half (96) to Maximum Security, and 3 ¼ in front of the Kentucky Derby’s third-place finisher Code of Honor.

10) Everfast (Dale Romans/Joel Rosario) – Here are some numbers for you: 66.00, 90.60, 63.60, 128.70, 39.30, 146.50. Those would have been the win payoffs on a $1 bet had this colt won any of his last six races. (He did finish second in one of them, where his 83 Beyer is the only one in 10 starts over 79.) I mentioned Calumet Farm’s association with Wayne Lukas earlier. Romans may be lining up in case The Coach ever retires.

11) Laughing Fox (Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana, Jr.) – He may be a “Horse for the Course” at Oaklawn Park unless the “course” is in a graded stake. He three wins came in Hot Springs, but his 7^th-place finish in the Rebel (77), and 4^th in the Arkansas Derby (89) are nothing to write home about. But in that latter race he was only a length behind Country House, albeit it 6 ¼ after Improbable.

12) Anothertwistafate (Blaine Wright/Jose Ortiz) – His three career wins came on Golden Gate’s synthetic, but he has adapted to dirt courses as well. He was a neck behind in a second in the Sunland Derby (94), and second again in Owendale’s Lexington (95).

13) Win Win Win (Michael Trombetta/Julian Pimentel) – No competitor has run a higher Beyer than this colt’s 99. That fig was earned, however, in a 7 furlong race in January in a $75K stake. Since then he has run 89, 88 and 89 in graded stakes, including his 10^th in the Kentucky Derby.

THE WEATHER

As of Friday, the National Weather Service is predicting a sunny day with a high of 78°.

ANALYSIS

Let’s start with those that I think have little chance of winning or, for that matter, even hitting the board: Market King, Signalman, Everfast, Laughing Fox, and Win Win Win.

Warrior’s Charge and Alwaysmining are each making a big jump from their prior level of competition – it will be the first graded stake for each. While Owendale and Anothertwistafate have performed well in Grade III events, the former’s effort against more difficult competition in the Grade II Risen Star resulted in a 10-length defeat to War of Will. Bourbon War will need a complete pace meltdown for his closing kick to be effective. The maiden Bodexpress figures to be part of that early pace and I do not think it will be to his advantage. This last pair ran in the Florida Derby which produced both Maximum Security and Churchill’s third-place finisher Code of Honor.

I think the most likely winner is either Improbable or War of Will. I prefer War of Will because I think his Derby performance was much better despite the final placing, and I think Improbable’s lack of winning is starting to become suspect. Also, War of Will figures to be a slightly better price.

The real fun in this race will be constructing trifectas and superfectas that could well be juicy.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2019

First Edition

When: Saturday, May 4

TV: NBC at about 6:50 p.m.

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

I started writing this several years ago. Initially, I just wanted to write about the race and did not intend for anyone else to see it. But a number of people did, and I kept at it in the hope of drawing new fans to the sport.

My introduction to racing was Derby weekend at Churchill Downs, and then Travers weekend at Saratoga. Those experiences got me so hooked that I had to go to the Penn Station OTB the next weekend so I could watch the Hopeful. There may not have been a greater disparity in the ambiance of racing than those last two experiences.

But this sport that I loved is now experiencing a major crisis as a result of a rash of still unexplained deaths at Santa Anita in the early months of this year. You will hear the phrase “existential crisis” so many times you may think you are in Philosophy 101. I have written about this several times on my web site, and will not go into it any further here.

On to the race.

THE FIELD

1) War of Will (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) – After four unsuccessful starts on grass, he moved to Churchill’s sloppy surface where he easily won (82). He then took the Fairgrounds’ LeComte (94) and the Risen Star as the favorite (90). But as the odds-on choice in the Louisiana Derby, he bombed, running 9^th by 12 lengths (78). He also drew the DREADED ONE HOLE.

2) Tax (Danny Gargan/Junior Alvarado) – Claiborne Farm must be ecstatic that a horse bred by them will be in the starting gate – and that they lost as a $50,000 claim. Since then, the gelding ran impressively in Aqueduct’s three Derby preps: third in the Remsen (93), first in the Withers (96), and second by 1 ¼ lengths in the Wood (95).

3) By My Standards (Bret Calhoun/Gabriel Saez) – Every year has its “wise guy” horse – the one supposedly knowledgeable insiders pick as this year’s surprise, and this is the one this time. His works and appearance at Churchill in the a.m. has many observers gushing. He has hit the board in each of five career starts, although four of them have been in Maiden Special Weight. In his fifth race, he upset the Louisiana Derby at 23-1, earning his Beyer top of 97.

4) Gray Magician (Peter Miller/Drayden Van Dyke) – When a race with a $2.5 million purse becomes a safe place for a horse who cannot hit the board in a graded stakes stateside, it may be time to evaluate whether the UAE Derby should be rated as highly on the Derby’s point system as it now is. This colt has a sole win, and a Beyer range in the 70s, with a top of 80 (twice). He was second to Plus Que Parfait by ¾ length in Dubai. His Timeform rating is a 103, which I think is about 12 points over a comparable Beyer.

5) Improbable – (Bob Baffert/Irad Ortiz Jr.) – With the scratch of Omaha Beach, this colt will vie for favoritism with Game Winner and Roadster. He was the odds-on favorite in each of his first four starts, winning the first three (96, 93, 85), before being upset by Long Range Toddy in the Rebel (95). He chased Omaha Beach to the wire in the Arkansas Derby, falling short by a length (99).

6) Vekoma (George Weaver/Javier Castellano) – He was the convincing winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, beating Win Win Win by 3 ½ (94). He has hit the board in three earlier starts, including two graded stakes, the Fountain of Youth (3^rd, 90), and winning the Nashua at two (97)

7) Maximum Security (Jason Servis/Luis Saez) – This colt was so highly regarded by his owners (and breeders) they started him for a $16,000 tag at Gulfstream in December. After winning that one by 9 ¾ he left the claiming ranks and won his next two by 6 ½ (83) and then 18 ¼ (102). He slow-walked the Florida Derby field, winning by 3 ½ (101). His two triple-digit Beyers are the only ones in the field.

8) Tacitus (Bill Mott/Jose Ortiz) – One of two Mott-trainees, this colt is coming off three straight wins, including the Wood Memorial (97) and Tampa Derby (93).

9) Plus Que Parfait (Brendan Walsh/Ricardo Santana Jr.) – The ridgling earned his career top Beyer of 84 in a second-place finish on a sloppy Churchill track in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He was not close to either War of Will or Country House in the Risen Star (58), or to the former in the LeComte (83). So he shipped to Dubai, winning the $2.5 million UAE Derby. His Timeform of 104 computes to a 90 Beyer in my calculation.

10) Cutting Humor (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith) – He won the Sunland Derby (95) in his last out, winning by a neck. It is the race that produced Derby bomber Mine That Bird. How did he attract “Money” Mike Smith? Smith’s original mount, the morning line favorite Omaha Beach, scratched.

11) Haikal (Kiaran McLaughlin/Rajiv Maragh) – SCRATCHED

12) Omaha Beach (Richard Mandela/Mike Smith) – SCRATCHED

13) Code of Honor (Shug McGaughey/John Velazquez) – He closed off a 45.6 pace in the Fountain of Youth, winning by ¾ length and getting his Beyer top of 95. His closing run understandably became much more difficult when Maximum Security lulled the field to sleep with a half in 48.4. That may explain why he had too much to do to win, but not losing ground down the stretch.

14) Win Win Win (Mike Trombetta/Julian Pimentel) – His biggest win is at 7 furlongs in Tampa’s $75K Pasco Bay where he earned a 99. While he hit the board in two-turn stakes in the Blue Grass (88) and Tampa Derby (89), he has not cracked a 90 in a route race.

15) Master Fencer (Koichi Tsunoda/Julien Leparoux) – The lone foreign-born entrant arrives here following a six-race career in Japan where he won two and was second twice. Neither win came in a stakes, and while there are no Beyers, his race two back received a 94 Timeform rating, which I equate to a Beyer in the low 80s. I do not see anything to recommend him for a win.

16) Game Winner (Bob Baffert/Joel Rosario) – The undefeated Juvenile champ has yet to win this year. He lost by a nose (at odds-on) to Omaha Beach in the Rebel (96), and by a half-length (at odds-on) to Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby (97).

17) Roadster (Bob Baffert/Florent Geroux) – His lone loss in four starts came at the hands (hooves?) of Game Winner. His Beyers have increased in each start, culminating in the SA Derby at 98.

18) Long Range Toddy (Steve Asmussen/Jon Court) – He upset Improbable in the Rebel, earning his Beyer top of 95. He faded in the stretch in the sloppy Arkansas Derby next out, finishing sixth, almost 15 lengths back (78).

19) Spinoff (Todd Pletcher/Manny Franco) – He had a difficult trip in the Louisiana Derby (95) before being edged by the current wise guy horse, By My Standards. His four-race career has featured increasing Beyers in each race.

20) Country House (Bill Mott/Flavien Prat) – He was 6 ¼ lengths behind Omaha Beach in a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby where he earned his Beyer top of 91. He ran respectably in the Louisiana Derby (87, 4^th, 6 ½ back) and the Risen Star (86, 2^nd by 2 ¼). He has a single win from six starts.

21) Bodexpress (Gustavo Delgado/C Landeros) – The maiden gets into the field because of the scratch of the morning-line favorite. At 72-1, he beat nine horses in the Florida Derby, finishing second by 3 ½, which is about his margin in front of Code of Honor.

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a 100% chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, for Saturday with a temperature near 70.

ANALYSIS

When I first started writing this over 20 years ago, I had several absolute principles in picking the winner. I’m down to two. three. One – the need for a race at two. Another is the need for a good race in the final Derby prep. It doesn’t have to be a win, but it does have to be a finish not more than four or five lengths behind the winner. The final one is competitive Beyer figures – if not triple digits, then the high 90’s.

The need for a two-year old race is paramount. I think it is based upon the necessity of building a solid base at two that becomes the springboard for running the Triple Crown distances in the spring. That knocks out Justify and Magnum Moon.

Last year’s Triple Crown was not among my handicapping highlights. In addition to picking a horse who could not finish the Derby as the winner, I proceeded to make my longshot selections in the next two legs as the horse – different ones – who finished last. And I went against Justify in all three legs. When you’re hot, you’re hot, so I immediately predicted that Donald Trump would be reëlected.

I am sticking with the necessity of having a good last race. That knocks out War of Will, Code of Humor, Long Range Toddy and Country House.

Of the remaining 15 entrants, only three have never recorded a Beyer of 95 or higher. Those three include the two exiting Dubai where a Beyer is not assessed – Gray Magician and Plus Que Parfait — and Master Fencer, who has only raced in a Beyer-free zone.

Narrowing the field to 12 does not make it measurably more simple, so I am only going to consider horses who competed in one of the Derby preps that has recently produced the winner. That eliminates participants in the Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial, Louisiana Derby and the Sunland Derby: Tax, By My Standards, Vekoma, Tacitus, Cutting Humor, Win Win Win, and Spinoff.

That means I have only five contenders. I am not going with a maiden, Bodexpress. Yes, that means three of my top four contenders are trained by Bob Baffert.

I do not like Improbable, who could well go to the post as the favorite. He had a very difficult race in the Arkansas Derby with jockey Irad Ortiz pounding on him the length of the stretch. I failed to understand this tactic. It was a prep race and he did not need a win to get to the Derby. By contrast, Mike Smith was easy on Omaha Beach, who won with what I assume was a reserve of energy.

I prefer Game Winner over Roadster. When Mike Smith got off Roadster to ride Omaha Beach, it indicated he did not think the Baffert trainee was going to be the Derby winner. I think Maximum Security could pop for a slightly better price (morning-line is 10-1). When the Churchill strip was sloppy early in the day on Friday, speed carried well.

2018 BELMONT STAKES

first edition

When: Saturday, June 9

Where: Elmont, New York

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 2:30. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:46

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

There is no doubt who is the best horse in this year’s running of the Belmont Stakes. Justify has won three of the year’s most important races – the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Those three Grade I victories are two more than the balance of the field combined. His four triple digit Beyers are the only ones run in this field.

But as all horse players know, the best horse often does not win, and wagering odds-on favorites to win is a recipe for financial ruin. When I did this last year, I wrote “for the 11^th time in 12 years the Belmont winner will have won neither of the first two legs of the Triple Crown.” I had to go back and check that since it is a remarkable fact. I found something even more interesting. Since Affirmed’s victory 40 years ago, only three Derby winners have won the Belmont: Swale in 1984, Thunder Gulch in ’95, and of course American Pharoah three years ago. In the last 22 years, only one Derby winner has also taken the Belmont.

What makes this even more interesting is that the Belmont in recent years has not attracted top quality fields. The connections for many of the best three-year old horses opt to skip the event if their horse does not win the Derby. With the exception of Justify and Vino Rosso, no winner of a major Derby prep is going to be running. The colt who may have had the best chance at upsetting the favorite – Audible, with the same owners as Justify – won’t be here. We thus have a $1.5 million Grade I that has much more the feel of a Grade II or even a Grade III.

THE FIELD

1) Justify (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) – By all accounts, the Derby and Preakness winner has been looking and training superbly since his taxing efforts on two of the wettest tracks you are ever going to see. But his Beyer numbers have declined since his 107 in the Santa Anita Derby, earning a 103 in Louisville and a 97 in Baltimore.

2) Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado) – He was 16^th in the Derby, a mere 41 lengths behind the winner (43). But he is also the only Grade I winner in the field besides Justify, and just missed a second one by a neck. Those were at two, and his three-year old form has not matched up. While he did not embarrass himself in the three Derby preps – a second in the Holy Bull (90), third in the Gotham (83) and fourth in the Blue Grass (89), he has yet to exceed 90 on the Beyer scale.

3) Bravazo (Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez) – Ignore The Coach at your peril. There was a time recently when I considered him an automatic toss. No more. After running decently in the Derby (91) at 67-1, he (the colt, that is) came up a half-length short in the Preakness (96).

4) Hofburg (Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – He will be the “wise guy” horse, but as I have said before, the selection of the cognoscenti usually goes off a lower price than he should because everyone starts to jump on board. A morning line of 9-2 already seems too low for a colt with one win in four career starts. But he was a good second in Audible’s Florida Derby (94), and then had a horrendous trip in Kentucky where he finished seventh, 8 ¾ lengths back. He has considerable upside. Oh, and his dam’s sire, Touch Gold, ended the Triple Crown bid of Silver Charm, Bob Baffert’s first attempt at the trophy.

5) Restoring Hope (Bob Baffert/Florent Geroux) – I don’t think I’m going out on a limb when I say this colt’s entry was the owners’ idea, not Baffert’s, particularly since his most success has come when going for the lead as does Justify. His one win came in a restricted maiden race (90). While he ran third in the Wood, 5 ¼ back (90), he was 12^th, 24 back in the Pat Day Mile (50) at Churchill.

6) Gronkowski (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) – The combo of Brown and Ortiz is likely to drive down the price, but New York fans are unlikely to wager on a horse named after the New England Patriots star. But I do not think this colt is that good. While only Justify has more career wins than this guy’s four, he has the lowest earnings (all in the UK) of any entrant. He is the only one to never run in a graded (or group) event. His Timeform ratings have been slowly rising, but his best of 101 is about the equivalent of a 90 on the Beyer scale.

7) Tenfold (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana, Jr.) – In the Preakness Blue Ribbon Analysis, I semi-facetiously observed that if Justify could win the Derby with his career beginning on February 18, this guy had a chance with his first start being nine days earlier. He ran third (95), missing the Woodlawn Vase by less than a length. In four career starts, his Beyers have increased each time out, a factor that is usually a good sign of a horse with room to move forward.

8) Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – He has won half of his six career starts, including the Wood Memorial (98) by three lengths. He finished in mid-pack in the Derby, 10 ½ lengths back in ninth place (88).

9) Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – He entered the Derby with three wins in four career starts with each Beyer higher than the preceding one. He won the Louisiana Derby by a neck (95), but then finished 17^th by 42 lengths (42). His Derby odds were, I thought, astonishingly high at 59-1 although he ran to those odds.

10) Blended Citizen (Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey) – He has yet to hit the board in four starts on a fast dirt track. He is the only entrant to have raced on Belmont’s unique surface, and won Belmont Park’s prep, the Peter Pan, with a career top of 90. His Beyer pattern is that of a horse who is slowly improving, but his record of runs in the high eighties is not what one would expect for the winner here.

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a “partly sunny” day with a high of 79°.

ANALYSIS

Having picked against the odds-on favorite to win the Triple Crown in my Derby and Preakness analyses, I am remaining stubborn. I think the lack of a race at two and a demanding and compressed schedule of starts at three makes him a very vulnerable favorite. Also, go back and look at those stats of Derby winners in the Belmont.

I think this becomes a wide-open race if one is not going with the chalk. There are only three I cannot see winning: Restoring Hope, Gronkowski and Blended Citizen. I confess, however, that a side of me would love to see Restoring Hope (and his trainer Bob Baffert) win after the owners of Justify and Audible may have declared the latter from the race to increase their chances of a Triple Crown.

When the first five finishers in a race are separated by less than two lengths, it means we are looking at a high quality turf race, or none of the horses are significantly better than the others. Justify gutted out a tough Preakness win on an off track, but it could also be an indication of declining form.

It should be coming clear that I do not have a clue about this race, so I am going to toss the other Preakness runners to come back, Bravazo and Tenfold. That leaves us with four. I am going with one of the longest morning-line prices: Noble Indy.

2018 PREAKNESS

first edition

When: Saturday, May 19

Where: Baltimore, Maryland

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 3:00. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:48

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

The Preakness is always somewhat of an anticlimax. After months of build-up for the Derby, the Preakness is all about whether we will have a horse going for the Triple Crown – at the Belmont Stakes. Instead of the countless charts listing all the Derby possibilities, we are down to humdrum coverage focused only on whether Justify can get the second leg.

Even those who contested the Derby are mostly on the sidelines. Twenty-one horses were entered, twenty ran, but only three are showing up at Pimlico to challenge the Derby winner in an eight-horse field.

THE FIELD

1) Quip (Rodolphe Brisset/Florent Geroux) – Many horses do not show improvement from their two-year old to three-year old years. This colt won two of three last year with Beyers (68, 77, 74) that do not suggest a big season this year. But he opened with a win in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby (94) before running second in Magnum Moon’s Arkansas Derby by four lengths (92). There are not many in this group outside the top two who give indications of improvement, but he does.

2) Lone Sailor (Tom Amoss/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – There is nothing in his Past Performances to suggest this colt was capable of just missing in a Grade II Derby prep. His lone win in seven previous career starts came in the slop at Saratoga (77) in a race taken off the turf. His two subsequent starts in graded stakes resulted in losses by a combined 20 lengths, and his Beyer top was a 78 in an optional claiming. Nonetheless, he lost by only a neck to Noble Indy in the Louisiana Derby, earning a 95. I am thinking that performance resulted from a perfect pace set-up for him, as well as a comment on the quality of the field, than an indication of the colt’s future ability. He did, however, beat more than half the field in the Kentucky Derby, finishing eighth, 9 ¼ back (89).

3) Sporting Chance (Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras) – He ran 4th on the First Saturday in May, but it was in the Grade III Pat Day Mile (77) rather than the day’s feature. Nonetheless, it was one of the most remarkable race charts I have ever seen for a graded stake on a major racing card. Here are the odds for the first seven finishers: 40-1, 32-1, 22-1, 7-1, 85-1, 49-1 and 39-1. The $2 tri paid 34 and change – that’s $34K and change. The super came back at $150K. This colt was the short-price in the septofecta, running eight lengths behind the winner. He had two wins in six prior starts, including Saratoga’s Grade I Hopeful (86) – the first race that begins the ridiculous hype of “Derby favorite.” He hasn’t embarrassed himself in four starts at three, including a Beyer top of 91, finishing third, 3 ¼ behind Good Magic in the Blue Grass Stakes. There is nothing to recommend him for a W.

4) Diamond King (John Servis/Javier Castellano) – He was undefeated as a two-year old in races when he did not lose his rider (79, 81, 68). That last effort was in an ungraded stake at Laurel. He returned in the seven-furlong Grade III Swale at Gulfstream, where he finished third, 3 ¾ lengths behind the winner (82). In the nine-furlong Tesio at Laurel, he won as the favorite by ¾ length (84). His career Beyers do not suggest a W here.

5) Good Magic (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) – This million dollar Keeneland purchase earned back the price when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (100) – to break his maiden, no less – bringing his two-year old earnings to $1.2 million and an Eclipse award for good measure. He has been less spectacular this year, disappointing at odds-on in the Fountain of Youth (89) – third by 4 ½ – before winning the Blue Grass Stakes (95) by 1 ½ lengths. He has not finished off-the-board in six lifetime starts. He ran second in the Derby, 2 ½ back (99).

6) Tenfold (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana, Jr.) – Just as generals fight the last war, trainers run the last race. If a colt making his first start on February 18 can win the Kentucky Derby, why not one with nine more days of racing experience taking the second leg of the Triple Crown? He won his first two races at Oaklawn Park (86, 87) before running fifth, five lengths back in Magnum Moon’s Arkansas Derby (92). Nothing recommends this colt in this race on the win end.

7) Justify (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) – On February 17 he was simply an unraced colt. A day later, after breaking his maiden, he became one of the top picks to win the Derby. He did not disappoint, bringing his career record to four-for-four. His winning Beyers of 103, 107, 101 and 104 are impressive for any three-year old at this stage. The entire rest of the field, combined, has run one.

8) Bravazo (Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez) – The Coach says “you can’t win it, if you’re not in it,” and he and owner Calumet Farm continue to race horses that seem to be over matched in a particular race. Yet they sometimes “win it” at a nice mutual. His three best career Beyers have come in his last four races: the Derby (91) where he was sixth, eight lengths back; the Risen Star he won with a 93; and an optional claimer (89). He is a candidate to hit the board.

THE WEATHER

Since Wednesday, the National Weather Service has been predicting heavy rain or showers every day and night through Saturday. Clearly, Justify and Good Magic have demonstrated their ability to run on a sloppy track, but it is important to keep in mind that all tracks are different with wet conditions.

ANALYSIS

For the Derby, we had three absolute principles to guide us in picking the winner. Only two came through this year – you may have heard that the winner became the first horse since the 19^th century to win without having raced at two. For the Preakness, we have only one – the winner must have raced in the Derby. While there have been exceptions to the rule, it usually had to be a special horse to break the pattern – think Rachel Alexandra. But last year saw a winner of only a maiden take the black-eyed susans. That remains Cloud Computing’s only other win.

One of my cardinal views is that the best horse often wins the Kentucky Derby. We may not know who that is in a given year, and it is often the Derby that resolves that question. There is simply little reason to think that Justify is not this year’s best three-year old colt. He is undefeated this year and has produced visually impressive runs in all four career starts. Nonetheless, I think his lack of a solid base at two is going to catch up to him this spring. And I cannot place a win bet on an odds-on horse.

And the wagering value on the next most likely winner, Good Magic, is nothing to write home about given his morning-line of 3-1, although that would be much easier to take.

If neither of the top two comes through, I think the most likely upsetter is Quip. He is a lightly-raced horse who definitely shows a possibility of improving.

For the exotic wagers, some combination of those three with the two others exiting the Derby, Lone Sailor and Bravazo, are the way to go.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2018

First Edition

When: Saturday, May 5

Where: Louisville, Kentucky

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage on NBCSN at 2:30.

Race goes off at about 6:50

The factual information contained herein is from a number of sources, including The Daily Racing Form (drf.com), BloodHorse.com, thoroughbreddailynews.com, and even the Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac (2009). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

What a difference a year makes. Last year I lamented the quality of the field, although Always Dreaming was a legitimate winner. Not one of the winners in the Triple Crown races, however, has won since that victory. This year we may have an embarrassment of riches in what seems to be the deepest field in my memory.

There are two undefeated colts, although they will have to do something that was last done in 1882. The two best two-year olds from last year are here. The winners of the five major American preps, each of whom has solid credentials, are here. Then there is the colt who won Dubai’s UAE Derby in the most scintillating performance of the year. It is a racing fan’s dream and a handicapping nightmare – unless, of course, you come up with the right answer(s).

The Derby and the filly counterpart Oaks, however, have become a testament to the greed of Churchill Downs which seemingly will stop at nothing to continue the fleecing of its golden goose. The Twin Spires are one of sport’s most iconic images and when I first saw them in person it was a thrill like walking into Fenway Park for the first time. But now it’s getting hard to even see them with the behemoth structures for luxury boxes rising up alongside. This year brings the news that there is additional luxury seating near the starting gate where a mere $130,000 gets you and 29 friends a two day suite – a quarter of a mile from the finish.

Alongside the greed, however, Churchill rarely misses an opportunity to tarnish its image and that of racing. Several years ago, it was Secretariat’s now-paralyzed jockey who was denied entrance to a parking lot. While that can be chalked up to a goof by a parking lot attendant, it was top brass that decided a widely-recognized journalist would not get press credentials – because she did work for a competitor to Churchill’s Advance Deposit Wagering platform. The completely predictable outcry led to the also predictable reversal of a stupid decision.

But In furtherance of its commitment to horse racing, Churchill Downs will be conducting a panel on race day medication. A group of WHOA members (the Water Hay Oats Alliance) who have taken a principled opposition to the use of race day Lasix will participate in a discussion entitled “A Battle for the Soul of our Sport.” They will explain why 297 of the 302 horses – including those owned by them – will be racing on the medication on Oaks and Derby days.

THE FIELD

1) Firenze Fire (Jason Servis/Paco Lopez) – Only one entrant has more wins than this guy, who has four in nine career starts. Three of those were in stakes, including the Spa’s Grade III Sanford (79) at 13-1, the Grade I Champagne (90) at 11-1, and the ungraded Jerome. He is not the first well-regarded two-year old to fizzle, but fizzle he did. His Beyer top this year is an 83 in the Withers at Aqueduct, and he has lost his last two starts (81, 79) by more than 20 lengths. If that is not a sufficient deterrent to wager a quid, he will be breaking from the Dreaded One Hole.

2) Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado) – He broke his maiden at Churchill (64), then moved to Saratoga where he ran second in the Sanford (76) and Hopeful (85), losing the latter by a neck. From there he captured Keeneland’s Grade I Breeders’ Futurity by 4 lengths (79). It’s been all uphill since then. He bombed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (53), and is winless in three tries this year. His Beyer top is a 90 in the Holy Bull where he finished 5 ½ behind Audible.

3) Promises Fulfilled (Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie) – He could be the poster child for Derby fever. He had a decent enough two-year old career, winning his first two before running third at the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Gold Cup earning his juvenile Beyer top of 76. He began his three-year old season with an 18-1 wire of the Fountain of Youth (96). But after taking the early lead in the Florida Derby, he finished last (47[sic]) by 35 ¼ lengths. How the logical next step after one good race in five months is the Derby is beyond me.

4) Flameaway – (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano) – He is the field’s leader in most career wins, having finished first in five of nine lifetime starts. He has won on grass, synthetic, muddy track and fast dirt, and at seven different tracks, so I think we can say he is versatile. What he may not be is fast. His last three efforts came on fast dirt where he won the Sam F. Davis (93) and ran good seconds in the Tampa Bay Derby (92) and the Blue Grass (93).

5) Audible (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – The field’s lone New York-bred is one of four trained by Pletcher. He exits the Florida Derby – an increasingly important Derby prep – that he won by three lengths (99). It was his fourth consecutive win (from five starts), including Gulfstream’s Holy Bull that he won by 5 ½ with another 99.

6) Good Magic (Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz) – This million dollar Keeneland purchase earned back the price when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (100) – breaking his maiden, no less – bringing his two-year old earnings to $1.2 million and an Eclipse award for good measure. He has been less spectacular this year, disappointing at odds-on in the Fountain of Youth (89) – third by 4 ½ – before winning the Blue Grass Stakes (95) by 1 ½ lengths. He has not finished off-the-board in five lifetime starts

7) Justify (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) – On February 17 he was simply an unraced colt. A day later, after breaking his maiden, he became one of the top picks to win the Derby. The hype has yet to abate after two more impressive wins, meaning he has now beaten a total of 14 horses in three lifetime starts. His winning Beyers of 107, 101 and 104 are impressive for any three-year old at this stage. Only Bolt d’Oro, whom be beat convincingly in the Santa Anita Derby, has run that many, and the entire rest of the 20-horse field has run a total of two. I think the constant hype may well lower his morning-line favoritism from 3-1 to even lower. But he has yet to run anywhere besides Santa Anita. Oh – I almost forgot. No horse who did not race at two has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882. And his first start was just 11 weeks ago. Trainer Baffert, however, is not concerned about this jinx. He told Dan Wolken of USA Today that his real fear is black cats crossing his path. He thinks it cost him Triple Crowns with Point Given and Real Quiet.

8) Lone Sailor (Tom Amoss/James Graham) – There is nothing in his Past Performances to suggest this colt was capable of just missing in a Grade II Derby prep. His lone win in seven previous career starts came in the slop at Saratoga (77). His two subsequent starts in graded stakes resulted in losses by a combined 20 lengths, and his Beyer top was a 78 in an optional claiming. Nonetheless, he lost by only a neck to Noble Indy in the Louisiana Derby, earning a 95. I am thinking that performance resulted from a perfect pace set-up for him, as well as a comment on the quality of the field, than an indication of a colt about to blossom on Saturday.

9) Hofburg (Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr.) – In a field loaded with lightly-raced horses, this colt is the most inexperienced along with Justify. He ran once at two – a fourth by 9 lengths (60) at Saratoga. He broke his maiden on March 3 at Gulfstream (83) before running second in the Florida Derby (94), finishing three lengths in arrears to Audible. One would think his connections – Juddmonte Farms and conditioner Mott – are immune to Derby fever and would not be taking this step unless they have a ton of confidence. And don’t forget, he also has that crucial race at two.

10) My Boy Jack (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) – He needed a win in Keeneland’s Grade III Lexington to guarantee a spot in the field, and he eked out a head win (90) over a lackluster field to get it. The colt is the field’s most experienced runner with 10 career starts. Among his three wins are another Grade III in Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes (93) on a muddy strip. Before the Lexington he had a pattern of running a higher Beyer in each subsequent race, but topping out at a 94 does not suggest a horse who has a much higher ceiling. If you own the colt, however, turning a $20,000 Keeneland yearling purchase into a half-million dollar earner will lessen a lot of post-Derby disappointment.

11) Bolt d’Oro (Nick Ruis/Victor Espinoza) – He is the hands-down winner of the Rodney Dangerfield Award. Despite two Grade I wins at two (103, 85), and a tough trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished third (91), he lost the Eclipse Award to the colt who broke his maiden in the Juvenile. He won his three-year old debut via a controversial DQ in the San Felipe (101) and then ran into a buzz saw named Justify. Were it not for that rival, he likely would be the Derby favorite, but the morning-line has him as only the co-fourth choice.

12) Enticed (Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado) – McLaughlin is one of the underrated top trainers in this country, which is good from a punter’s perspective since he can often pop at a price. The colt broke his maiden in the Spa mud (67), ran third in the Champagne (84) and the won Churchill’s Jockey Gold Cup (81). He was trounced as the chalk in the Holy Bull (76). He bounced back, winning the Gotham (95) and running second in the Wood (93).

13) Bravazo (Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras) – The Coach says “you can’t win it, if you’re not in it,” and he and owner Calumet Farm continue to race horses that seem to be over matched in a particular race. Yet they sometimes “win it” at a nice mutual. If you take out the Fair Grounds Risen Star that he won at 21-1 where he Beyered a 93, and the preceding one (89), his top in his other six races is a 70. Most recently, he finished eighth in the Louisiana Derby (64) as the second choice.

14) Mendelssohn (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore) – A year in which there were several impressive performances that could lead one to think he was witnessing the Derby winner, nothing stood out more than this colt’s scintillating win in the UAE Derby (106) by 18 ½ lengths. It was just his first start on dirt, but he is a half to the brilliant mare Beholder and, let’s face it, you don’t spend $3 million on a yearling with the hope of getting a good turf horse. He is one of two Breeders’ Cup winners, having scored in the Juvenile Turf (86). He has raced on three continents, in four different countries, winning four of seven lifetime starts. And both his trainer and jockey are in any discussion of the world’s best.

15) Instilled Regard (Jerry Hollendorfer/Drayden Van Dyke) – He was the third choice in a Santa Anita Derby that was widely regarded as a two-horse race, and then finished behind a 41-1 horse. This is a colt who showed early promise, finishing only ¾ back in the Grade I Los Alamitos Futurity (92) before winning the Grade III Lecomte (92) at the Fair Grounds. But he was not a factor in the Santa Anita Derby and cannot be considered a threat here.

16) Magnum Moon (Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez) – He is one of two top-tier contestants seeking to break the 135-year drought of an unraced two-year old winning the Derby. He first raced on January 18, breaking his maiden (95) by 4 ½ at Gulfstream before winning again at Tampa Bay going two turns (88), and then taking the Rebel at Oaklawn (97). He went to the gate at the Arkansas Derby as the odds-on chalk and proceeded to wire what was considered this year’s most competitive prep field by 4 lengths (98). There is one knock – have you heard of the Apollo jinx?

17) Solomini (Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat) – One of the best bets in racing is the lesser half of an uncoupled entry (see Quiet, Real, trained by one Bob Baffert). This colt exited his two-year old year with a high level of promise following a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (93) and a controversial disqualification in the Los Alamitos Futurity (93). His two starts this year have not exactly been embarrassing, finishing second as the chalk to Magnum Moon in the Rebel by 3 ½ lengths (92), and then third by 4 ¼ to the same winner in the Arkansas Derby (92). But running lower Beyers at three than you did at two is not what one would call encouraging. His sole win in six career starts came at Del Mar in his maiden voyage, eight months ago.

18) Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – While the Florida Derby’s status as a Derby prep has increased over recent years, Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial has declined to such an extent it was downgraded last year from a Grade I to Grade II. Thus, this colt is likely to be undervalued as a contender despite his three-length win and a 98 Beyer that only was surpassed by four others in their last start. He has three wins from five starts. His Wood Beyer topped his previous best of 90 running 1 ¼ lengths behind Flameaway in the Sam F. Davis.

19) Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux) – He has won three of four lifetime starts, with his Beyers increasing with each subsequent race: 77, 86, 91, 95. He added blinkers in his last start in the Louisiana Derby, edging Lone Sailor by a neck with My Boy Jack another ½ length back. While this was not the prep season’s deepest field, “second-time blinkers” can be a useful angle.

20) Combatant (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana) – His lone win in seven lifetime starts came at Churchill Downs in October (77). He hasn’t embarrassed himself in graded stakes competition with a fourth in the Arkansas Derby (92), a third in the Rebel (92) and a second in the Southwest (85), but his Beyers have congregated in the low 90’s which is not going to do it in this field.

Also Eligible

21) Blended Citizen

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a 50% of showers for Saturday with a temperature in the low 70’s.

ANALYSIS

When I first started writing this over 20 years ago, I had several absolute principles in picking the winner. I’m down to three. One – the need for a race at two. Another is the need for a good race in the final Derby prep. It doesn’t have to be a win, but it does have to be a finish not more than four or five lengths behind the winner. The final one is competitive Beyer figures – if not triple digits, then the high 90’s.

The necessity of having a good last race knocks out Firenze Fire, Promises Fulfilled, Bravazo and Instilled Regard.

I am going to be particularly flexible on the need for competitive Beyer figures. I am looking for a horse who is improving, or has shown enough in past races to indicate a jump could be coming. Nonetheless, that still eliminates Free Drop Billy, Flameaway, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack, Solomini, and Combatant.

That gets us down to eight – and we are leaving out two who have undeniable talent in Justify and Magnum Moon.

It’s time to start eliminating those who have a certain appeal, but I do not think can win this race if the talent pool is as deep as I think it is. That cuts out Enticed, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy. Only five to go? This is about as difficult as I anticipated.

Of the five remaining, I will have a win bet on Hofburg as long as something approaching his morning-line of 20-1 holds up. I think Audible, Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro could each win. But the horse whose win would leave me slapping my head if I did not wager on him is Mendelssohn, so he is this year’s top pick.

2017 BELMONT STAKES

SECOND edition

EPICHARIS SCRATCHED

When: Saturday, June

Where: Elmont, New York

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 2:30. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:37

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com) and Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

Neither the winner of the Kentucky Derby nor the Preakness will be competing in the Belmont Stakes. Remarkably, this means that for the 11^th time in 12 years the Belmont winner will have won neither of the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

If that is not sufficiently disconcerting, the likely favorite, Classic Empire, was declared from the race this week because of a foot abscess. The new morning line favorite, Irish War Cry, won Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial, but in two of his last three starts lost by a combined 38 lengths. Only one entrant has won a Grade I, two have Grade 2’s and three more have Grade 3’s.

So we are not exactly looking at the spring version of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (at least I hope we are not). It will be difficult to find a more suspect field for a race with a purse of $1.5 million. But Belmont is offering an impressive card of Grade 1 races. Songbird, one of the few legitimate superstars in the sport, goes in the fifth race. It is, without question, a must-see day of racing, irrespective of a lackluster main event

THE FIELD

1) Twisted Tom (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) – The New York-bred gelding has won four of six lifetime starts. This, however, is his first start in a graded stake, and his Beyer top is a 78. Despite the top-level connections, this one is not for me.

2) Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) – – After adding blinkers, the colt won three of his next four, including the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby (96). He went off as the second choice in the Blue Grass, but ran a dismal fifth (76), 11 ½ lengths back. His Derby run was not much better, with a sixth, more than 10 back (88).

3) Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) – The Santa Anita Derby is traditionally one of the major Derby preps, sending several horses to Churchill, often including the winner. This year’s edition, however, is the weakest in my memory. While this colt had run Beyers of 93 and 94, he was able to win with an 88. He does have four wins from six career starts, including two Grade I’s. The Blue Grass and Wood were both downgraded from Grade I status this year, but the California prep was weaker than either of them. In the Derby, he was ninth, more than 14 back (82).

4) J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado) – He is one of only two entrants to run a triple-digit Beyer, earning a 102 on the inner track in the Grade III Gotham. He then disappointed in the Blue Grass, finishing fourth (84) by 6 ¼ lengths. That last fig is more in keeping with his other races, with the Gotham fig being 18 points better than his other top. In the Derby, he finished 15^th, 23 back (71).

5) Hollywood Handsome (Dallas Stewart/Florent Geroux) – A neck win in a non-winners of one-other-than in his last start is not what one is looking for in a Belmont winner. That did produce his Beyer top of 88. In his prior two starts, he finished fifth, 8 ½ back of Multiplier in the Illinois Derby (81), and 1 ¾ back of Patch in the Louisiana Derby (86).

6) Lookin At Lee (Steve Asmussen/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – He was the surprising place finisher in the Derby (98), closing well at 33-1 – and from the Dreaded One Hole. In the Preakness he was caught by longshot Senior Investment for a fourth place finish in an event in which he was never a factor. The deep closer ran to form in the Arkansas Derby to finish third, only 1½ back of Classic Empire. He won two of his first three starts (71, 59), but then settled for minor pieces in a series of graded stakes.

7) Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) – The New Jersey-bred is the only entrant with two triple digit Beyers. He broke his maiden at Laurel (83) and then won a minor stake (83) there on New Year’s Eve. He won the Holy Bull (101) by 3 ¾ lengths over Gunnevera and topping Classic Empire by 8¾. As the even-money choice in the Fountain of Youth he threw in a real stinker, finishing seventh, 21 ¾ lengths back (63). Then he won the Wood in convincing fashion by 3 ½ lengths, earning his second 101 Beyer. In the Derby, however, he was 10^th, 16+ back (79) at odds of 5-1.

8) Senior Investment (Ken McPeek/Channing Hill) – He was the second-longest shot in the Preakness at 32-1, but came on late to grab the show spot from Lookin At Lucky. He was never a factor in the race, finishing almost five back of Classic Empire. His head win in Keeneland’s Lexington is his only one not coming in a maiden or optional claiming. But he hit his Beyer top of 95 in a nine race career in which he either equaled or surpassed his prior top.

9) Meantime (Brian Lynch/Mike Smith) – He finished second to Timeline in the Peter Pan Stakes, the track’s prep for the Belmont. He pressed the pace, but “sputtered” four to five wide in the stretch according to the Daily Racing Form, finishing 3 ½ back of the odds-on choice. In his previous race, he broke his maiden by 7 ½ on a muddy Keeneland strip (86). In his first career start in February at Gulfstream, he finished less than two lengths back of Patch at odds of 54-1.

10) Multiplier (Brendan Walsh/Joel Rosario) – He broke his maiden (83) in his third career start at the Fair Grounds two months ago, and then came back to win the Illinois Derby (94) by a head. He has a pattern of increasing Beyers, equaling his prior top in the Preakness where he finished sixth, 5 ¾ back. His trainer is adding blinkers, a move for which he has a 14% winning percentage and an ROI of only $1.19.

11) Epicharis (Jpn) SCRATCHED (Kiyoshi Hagiwara/Christophe Lemaire) – One place foreigners are welcome — particularly Japanese ones — is at American racetracks. It’s not an example of racing being at the forefront of societal changes, but rather the tons of money pushed through the windows when a horse from Japan races. This colt was undefeated in the Land of the Rising Sun, winning his four races there by a combined 25+ lengths, banking a half-million in the process. He then went to the UAE Derby, where he finished second to November Snow by a nose. The latter may be recalled by American racing fans as the colt who was, shall we say, “rank,” and was pulled up and walked off in the first 1/16th mile in the Derby. His Timeform Ratings from overseas put him in the hunt here.

12) Patch (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – The one-eyed horse skipped the Preakness for this spot. He finished 14^th in the Derby. He broke his maiden in his second career start (89) at Gulfstream, before running second (89) 1 ¼ lengths behind Girvin in the Louisiana Derby. Not only is he combatting history, but he is going to do it with one eye. The colt does not have a left eye and figures to be a sentimental favorite of the betting public. In the Derby Blue Ribbon, I said “I cannot figure out how a horse missing a left eye is going to negotiate a race in which 19 horses will be running to his left.” He once again drew the outside, but at least there are only 11 running inside him.

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a “mostly sunny day” and a high of 82°.

ANALYSIS

I do not have a clue here. I think betting a horse as suspect as the morning line favorite Irish War Cry is not a route I can take.

I think Twisted Tom, Hollywood Handsome and Patch are in totally over their manes. As noted at the outset, only one horse has won a Grade 1, and that one has won two. Gormley won the Santa Anita Derby and the Frontrunner for two-year olds. But when the Santa Anita Derby goes off at 22-1 in Kentucky and runs to those odds with a ninth-place finish, it is difficult to get excited.

Tapwrit, and J Boys Echo have now run two poor ones in a row. Epicharis was treated for lameness on Wednesday, not the best way to get ready for a 12-furlong race.

Of the remaining four, I am looking for a price, so will go with Senior Investment and Multiplier.

2017 PREAKNESS

first edition

When: Saturday, May 20

Where: Baltimore, Maryland

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 2:30. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:48

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

Even those who contested the Derby are mostly on the sidelines. Twenty-two horses were entered, twenty ran, but only four are showing up at Pimlico to challenge the Derby winner in a ten-horse field.

THE FIELD

1) Multiplier (Brendan Walsh/Joel Rosario) – He broke his maiden (83) in his third career start at the Fair Grounds two months ago, and then came back to win the Illinois Derby (94) by a head. He has a pattern of increasing Beyers, and if Hedge Fund wins the 11^th race Sir Barton, that moves him up.

2) Cloud Computing (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) – After breaking his maiden (82) in his first start on February 11, he has competed in two graded stakes, finishing further behind in each. That was a second in the Grade 3 Gotham (96) by 3 ½, and a third in the Grade 2 Wood (90) by 7. Obviously increasingly tough competition, but we are talking a Classic here. I simply cannot see him winning.

3) Hence (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux) – His Derby (77) was truly unimpressive. He broke near the rear of the pack and gradually moved up to 11^th, 18 ½ behind the winner. The champion of the Sunland Park Derby earned a Beyer of 97 in that race, a figure that has been surpassed this year by only two other entrants. It was, however, a significant departure from his prior top of 81 over five races. It is difficult to make a case for him winning.

4) Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – The impressive winner of the Derby (102) brings a four-race winning streak to this event. He broke his maiden (85) at Tampa by 11 ½ and then won a $75K optional claimer (71) at Gulfstream by 4 before an impressive win in the Florida Derby (97). He has hit the board in all six career starts.

5) Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) – If anyone can claim an excuse in the Derby, it would be this guy. From the Racing Form chart: “bobbled soon after the break then was hammered off stride between rivals when forced down, regrouped to rate off the inside, picked up steam leaving the far turn, swung five wide for the drive, had his run briefly interrupted when bumped and carried out mid stretch, regrouped and churned on.” And he had one of his eyes swollen and closed from all the mud kicked in his face. He finished fourth. He was 8 ¾ (90) behind the winner. (“Churned on” is my favorite phrase of the month after “mildly nauseous.”) He was undefeated last year in the races in which he finished, including an impressive score in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (102). His first start as a sophomore, however, was unimpressive, finishing third in the Holy Bull (87), 8 ¾ lengths behind Irish War Cry. He rebounded in the Arkansas Derby (94), working hard for a ½ length victory.

6) Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Mike Smith) – He is another horse with a troubled Derby trip, and ended up seventh, 13 ¼ lengths in arrears (84). He was the even-money choice in the Florida Derby, but finished a disappointing third (88), 6 ½ lengths behind Always Dreaming. He previously won three graded stakes, including the Saratoga Special (84), Delta Jackpot (86) and Fountain of Youth (97) by 5 ¾ lengths.

7) Term of Art (Doug O’Neill/Jose Ortiz) – After winning the grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille (74) – great name by the way – in November for his second career win, the colt has not been close to the winner’s circle in four subsequent starts. His Beyer top is the 92 from the San Felipe where he finished third, 8 ½ behind Mastery. In his next start in the Santa Anita Derby, he made no impression in a seventh- place finish in perhaps the most undistinguished Derby prep this year. He did not run in Kentucky, but appears to be part of a string of horses Calumet Farm is throwing out in the Triple Crown races – their horses ran 11^th, 14^th and 16^th at Churchill.

8) Senior Investment (Ken McPeek/Channing Hill) – There is Derby fever, but this guy is an example of his connections having Preakness fever. His head win in Keeneland’s Lexington is his only one not coming in a maiden or optional claiming. That produced his Beyer top of 89, but there is nothing to commend him for being in Saturday’s winner’s circle.

9) Lookin At Lee (Steve Asmussen/Corey Lanerie) – He was the surprising place finisher in the Derby (98), closing well at 33-1 – and from the Dreaded One Hole. The deep closer ran to form in the Arkansas Derby to finish third, only 1½ back of Classic Empire. He won two of his first three starts (71, 59), but has since settled for minor pieces in a series of graded stakes.

10) Conquest Mo Money (Miguel Hernandez/Jorge Carreno) – He looks like the best of the new shooters who did not run in the Derby. He has been in the exacta in all five starts, and in his last race (93), the Arkansas Derby, he finished only ½ length back of Classic Empire and a length in front of Lookin At Lee. xzHe is a horse that figures to be on the pace, and has the advantage of the other speed breaking to his inside.

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a “mostly cloudy day” and a high of 72°.

ANALYSIS

One of my cardinal views is that the best horse often wins the Kentucky Derby. We may not know who that is in a given year, and it is often the Derby that resolves that question. There is simply little reason to think that Always Dreaming is not this year’s best three-year old colt. He is undefeated this year and has produced two visually impressive runs in the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby.

No one, of course, likes to be a chalk-eating weasel. When we handicap any other race where the competitors have faced one another, we search for those troubled trips that suggest a horse did not fire its best shot. Obviously, that horse would be Classic Empire. Go back and look DRF’s summary of his race. He had a ton of trouble and still beat 16 others. Nonetheless, I had reservations about him in the Derby Blue Ribbon, and still have those thoughts despite his noble effort. And I definitely do not think he would be worth a win wager if the Morning Line of 3-1 holds.

Among the remaining Derby participants, I think Lookin At Lee is the one most warranting a wager, especially if his M/L of 10-1 holds. He is a stone-cold closer, not a style I typically favor, but he has been in the hunt in the Arkansas and Kentucky Derbies. Among his negatives is a lack of a visit to the winner’s circle since August, and his inability to win even in races that DRF says favors closers.

The two horses that finished in front of Lookin At Lee in the Arkansas Derby were Classic Empire and Conquest Mo Money. The latter is my pick for the new shooter most likely to upset the apple cart.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2017

First Edition

This has been one of the most unsettled Derby fields in recent years. There is no obvious favorite. Of the four major preps in April, only one was won with a Beyer figure higher than 94. The Blue Grass was taken by a maiden; the Santa Anita Derby winner posted an 88. The morning line favorite lost by more than eight lengths just two starts back. The winner in that race, and co-second choice, came back to lose by 21 in his next start.

If you look at a field of 11 horses in which no one ever ran a higher Beyer than 93, you would think it is a decent Grade III event. But those 11 are expected to go to the post on Saturday in the Kentucky Derby. To coin a phrase, this year’s field consists of a basket of deplorables. Having said that, we can now expect the winner to sweep the Triple Crown and beat Arrogate by open lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

THE FIELD

1) Lookin At Lee (Steve Asmussen/Corey Lanerie) – The deep closer ran to form, making a closing run in the Arkansas Derby to finish third, only 1½ back of Classic Empire. He won two of his first three starts (71, 59), but has since settled for minor pieces in a series of graded stakes. His top Beyer is the 91 from the Arkansas Derby.

2) Thunder Snow (Saeed bib Suroor/Christophe Soumillon) – This year’s entrant from the United Arab Emirates brings a three-race winning streak including two on the dirt. His most recent score came in the UAE Derby on a muddy track where he prevailed by a nose. He has wins in three countries, although none of them is the US of A. In the UAE Derby he finished 1 ¼ lengths in front of Master Plan, whose best Beyer is 85.

3) Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Channing Hill) – He is bringing a three-race winning streak, including a W in Turfway’s Spiral Stakes where he achieved his best Beyer of 82. In his only dirt race, he ran a 27 Beyer at Parx. His claim to fame is his idiotic owner who likes to dye the tails of his horses.

4) Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) – His sole win came at Churchill Downs in a maiden event (75) in November. He was second in the Risen Star (91) and then third in the Rebel (89). Adding blinkers for the Arkansas Derby, he was only able to muster a sixth (86), five lengths back. There is nothing to suggest he is the Derby winner.

5) Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – The impressive winner of the Florida Derby (97) brings a three-race winning streak to this event. He broke his maiden (85) at Tampa by 11 ½ and then won a $75K optional claimer (71) at Gulfstream by 4. He has hit the board in all five career starts.

6) State of Honor (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano) – After a juvenile career running at Woodbine, where he broke his maiden (74) on the synthetic surface, he moved his tack to Florida. He ran credibly in graded stakes there, finishing third (91) behind McCraken in the Sam F. Davis, second (89) to Tapwrit in the Tampa Bay Derby before a second (90), five lengths in arrears to Always Dreaming, in the Florida Derby.

7) Girvin – (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) – The winner of both Fair Grounds Derby preps now has a quarter crack. (A quarter crack is a split in the hoof wall and is treated with baths and a bar shoe.) He is ¾ length away from being undefeated, and has yet to lose on the dirt. His Beyers have been a model of consistency, ranging from 87 to 93 in the Risen Star in four starts. That does, however, suggest that there is not much upside.

8) Hence (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux) – The champion of the Sunland Park Derby earned a Beyer of 97, a figure that has been surpassed by only three entrants. It was a significant departure from his prior top of 81 over five races. Even though that 97 is equal to the best of second co-favorite Always Dreaming, his morning line odds of 20-1 indicate that Sunland is not getting much respect, despite Mine That Bird winning the Derby off a fourth in that race.

9) Irap (Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez) – It figures that in a year of unpredictability, a maiden would win what was regarded as the deepest field of any prep. He held off Practical Joke to win the Blue Grass in a less-than sizzling Beyer of 93. In one sense, one of the biggest surprises was that he was only 31-1. On the other hand, he did not exactly embarrass himself running in the top races on the West Coast. He was second (80) in the Grade I Los Alamitos Futurity to Mastery, who, before an injury, was well on his way to being the Derby favorite. After finishing fourth in the subsequent maiden as the favorite, he returned to finish second (88) in the Grade III Robert B. Lewis. He then ran in two stakes at Sunland, the more recent being a fourth (79) by 8 ½ lengths in the Grade III Sunland Park Derby. It would be easy to dismiss this guy, but his last four races have featured a blinkers on, blinkers off, blinkers on, blinkers off sequence that indicates his connections are trying to find the answer. Since those connections are not strangers to the winner’s circle on the First Saturday, I think this guy warrants serious attention.

10) Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano) – The even-money choice in the Florida Derby finished a disappointing third (88), 6 ½ lengths behind Always Dreaming and 1 ½ in arrears to State of Honor. He previously won three graded stakes, including the Saratoga Special (84), Delta Jackpot (86) and Fountain of Youth (97) by 5 ¾ lengths.

11) Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavien Prat) – He is one of two entrants seeking to overcome the 135-year history of an unraced two-year old winning the Kentucky Derby. Someday this will happen since every other historical trend has fallen by the wayside. I just don’t think this guy is the one to do it. He broke his maiden in his first race, earning his career Beyer top of 88. He then ran third (80) in the Grade II San Vincente, finishing 8 back. After winning a $75K optional claiming (84), he finished second in the widely-panned Santa Anita Derby, getting a Beyer of 88 in his half-length defeat.

12) Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) – The colt is winless in ten career starts, but ran second in the Rebel (89), finishing ahead of Untrapped, and then a decent fourth in the Arkansas Derby (90), only two lengths behind the Derby’s morning line favorite Classic Empire. He is a must-use in the exotic wagers at what should be a square price (M/L 50-1).

13) J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Luis Saez) – He is one of only three entrants to run a triple-digit Beyer, earning a 102 on the inner track in the Grade III Gotham. He then disappointed in the Blue Grass, finishing fourth (84) by 6 ¼ lengths. That last fig is more in keeping with his other races, with the Gotham fig being 18 points better than his other top.

14) Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) – It will be interesting to see how this temperamental colt handles the screaming throngs at Churchill. After all, in the more refined atmosphere at Saratoga, he wheeled at the start of the Hopeful, as the favorite, tossing his rider. He has twice refused to train this year. He was undefeated last year in the races in which he finished, including an impressive score in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (102). His first start as a sophomore, however, was equally unimpressive, finishing third in the Holy Bull, 8 ¾ lengths behind Irish War Cry. He rebounded in the Arkansas Derby (94), working hard for a ½ length victory.

15) McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.) – The unbeaten colt went to the Blue Grass post as the favorite, but then ran third (88), 3 ¾ lengths behind the maiden Irap. Three of his four wins came at Churchill, including the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club (86). He also won the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby (95).

16) Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) – After adding blinkers, the colt won three of his next four, including the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby (96). He went off as the second choice in the Blue Grass, but ran a dismal fifth (76), 11 ½ lengths back. He has a top trainer and jockey, but final Derby preps like his usually do not translate to a W on Derby Day.

17) Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) – The New Jersey-bred is the only entrant with two triple digit Beyers. He broke his maiden at Laurel (83) and then won a minor stake (83) there on New Year’s Eve. He won the Holy Bull (101) by 3 ¾ lengths over Gunnevera and topping Classic Empire by 8 ¾. As the even-money choice in the Fountain of Youth he threw in a real stinker, finishing seventh, 21 ¾ lengths back (63). Then he won the Wood in convincing fashion by 3 ½ lengths, earning his second 101 Beyer.

18) Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) – The Santa Anita Derby is traditionally one of the major Derby preps, sending several horses to Churchill, often including the winner. This year’s edition, however, is the weakest in my memory. While this colt had run Beyers of 93 and 94, he was able to win with an 88. He does have four wins from six career starts, including two Grade I’s. The Blue Grass and Wood were both downgraded from Grade I status this year, but the California prep was weaker than either of them.

19) Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) – I loved this colt earlier in the year. He entered the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile undefeated, with wins in a maiden (83) at Saratoga, the Hopeful (85) and the Champagne (88). He had trouble in the Juvenile (90), finishing third. His sophomore career brought seconds in the Fountain of Youth (88) and the Blue Grass (92). While the Blue Grass has produced five of this year’s Derby field, this guy could not get by the maiden Irap in the stretch. Despite having perhaps the most impressive race record in the field, his Beyers have not shown the kind of improvement one would like to see in the spring.

20) Patch (Todd Pletcher/Tyler Gaffalione) – This is the second entrant trying to become the first unraced two-year old to wear the roses since Apollo in 1882. He broke his maiden in his second career start (89) at Gulfstream, before running second (89) 1 ¼ lengths behind Girvin in the Louisiana Derby. Not only is he combatting history, but he is going to do it with one eye. The colt does not have a left eye and figures to be a sentimental favorite of the betting public. I cannot figure out how a horse missing a left eye is going to negotiate a race in which 19 horses will be running to his left.

Also Eligible

21) Royal Mo

22) Master Plan

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting showers for Friday and Saturday after heavy rain on Thursday, so the track condition is a big uncertainty.

ANALYSIS

This year, however, I am inclined to be somewhat more flexible. There is the quality of the field. In a year with no obvious standout, the chance for a tote board buster is high.

The necessity of having a good last race knocks out Untrapped, Gunnevera, J Boys Echo and Tapwrit.

I am going to be particularly flexible on the need for competitive Beyer figures. I am looking for a horse who is improving, or has shown enough in past races to indicate a jump could be coming. Nonetheless, that still eliminates Lookin At Lee, Thunder Snow, Fast and Accurate, State of Honor, Girvin, Sonneteer, Gormley and Practical Joke.

That gets us down to six.

McCraken simply has not demonstrated that he can beat the better horses of his generation. His only Beyer over 88 came in the Sam F. Davis (95) on a track that favored his closing style, and he only beat Tapwrit and State of Honor.

Hence is intriguing as a price play (M/L 20-1), but his 97 Beyer in the Sunland Park Derby is offset by the fact that his next highest fig is 81.

While no entrant has surpassed Classic Empire’s Beyer top of 102, he did that in early November winning the Juvenile. I am unwilling to pick a favorite who has yet to even equal the best speed figure of his two-year old season.

Always Dreaming had the most visually impressive win by a three-year old colt not named Mastery in winning the Florida Derby where he earned his Beyer top of 97. And it may be odd to say this, but the combination of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez has not exactly been magic in the Derby.

I think the most likely winner is Irish War Cry. While he had a horrendous Fountain of Youth, he was quite professional in winning the Wood, and has twice run a 101 Beyer this year. He is also bred to love a wet track should that be the condition on Saturday.

But the horse I am absolutely going to have a win wager on is Irap. He has run credibly against decent competition, including what was regarded as the toughest prep field in the Blue Grass. He has the look of an improving horse that may finally be figuring things out. And I could not live with myself if he scores at his Morning Line price of 20-1.

RIP BARTON

This is the space where I traditionally have done a “Who Does the Cat Like?” segment. There are numerous readers who have jokingly told me that it is the only part they read – at least I think they were joking.

Barton was named after the first Triple Crown winner, Sir Barton. He began his career in racing by grabbing a stack of losing tickets and spreading them over me while I slept. It was quite the athletic feat since he had to jump about four feet to the top of the dresser, hold a not insubstantial pile of tickets in his mouth and then jump down to the bed. It was as if he was taunting my lack of success.

Before the 2003 Derby, he started jumping up and knocking down the New York Thoroughbred Breeding refrigerator magnet. He had never before done this. So I wrote in that year’s Blue Ribbon that he was picking Funny Cide. He did it again before the Preakness, so Funny Cide was once again his pick. Since that year’s Preakness he did not again touch the magnet.

When I would write the Blue Ribbon, he often sat on the back of the monitor (back in the day when monitors had a protruding back) and look over the top at the screen. Sometimes he would get on my lap and purr loudly as I wrote about a particular horse. That would become his selection.

There were times when he had multiple picks. Thus, he gave us the California Chrome/Commanding Curve exacta of $340. The best, however, was coming up with the four horses that became a $1,268 superfecta.

We adopted Barton and his brother Fager from a shelter near Boston. We picked Fager because he stood on his hind legs meowing loudly at us. Barton got in my arms and fell asleep. Sleeping on me became one of his favorite activities. We developed a late afternoon routine where he would have his dinner, and then join me in a recliner while I enjoyed a cocktail and read a book. He would first give me a head butt and then settle down on my legs and fall asleep.

Last summer the head butts stopped and he no longer sat with me. We knew something was wrong, and he died in August.

I miss him terribly.

The 2016 BELMONT STAKES

first edition

When: Saturday, June 11

Where: Elmont, New York

TV: NBC at about 5:00 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 3:00. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:37

“According to information from SeatGeek.com, tickets in the second floor grandstand preferred section on the Monday after American Pharoah’s Preakness victory were being offered for an average of $647. Tuesday, a spot in that same area would have cost you as little as $50.”

– Brian DiDonato, writing in Thoroughbred Daily News

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com), thoroughbred racing commentary, bloodhorse.com and throughbreddailynews.com. The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

When I write The Preakness Blue Ribbon, I say the Second Jewel is always somewhat of an anticlimax. After months of build-up for the Derby, the Preakness is all about whether we will have a horse going for the Triple Crown – at the Belmont Stakes. But a Belmont with neither a Triple Crown possibility nor the Derby winner is even more so. This year, a 13-horse field has a mere three Grade I winners, and only three that have run triple-digit Beyers. There’s a maiden, three more with just a maiden win; eight members of this field are eligible for an allowance for those that have only “two other than” status.

Even the New York Racing Association, not known for being tightly tethered to reality, seems to be accepting the fact that their effort to strip Grade I races from what were once feature events (such as Memorial Day with the Met Mile) and loading up Belmont Stakes Day with the transferred Grade I’s as a hedge against no Crown on the line, has dramatically changed their approach. Last year, attendance was capped at 90,000 (following a fiasco the preceding year when a Crown was on the line) and barring walk-up admissions. This year, attendance is again capped, but there are walk-up admissions and advanced ticket sales have been discounted.

THE FIELD

1) Governor Malibu (Christophe Clement/Joel Rosario) – The New York-bred has yet to win in open company. His credentials are based on a trainer who had a minor upset with Tonalist, and his second in Belmont’s traditional prep, the Peter Pan, where he earned a career-best Beyer of 94.

2) Destin (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – One of two Pletcher entrants, this one is getting less hype, although he has more experience and a better record in stakes than stablemate Stradavari. He was sixth in the Derby, seven lengths back (93). He had a two-month break between that race and his final prep, the Tampa Bay Derby. His triple-digit Beyer in that event makes him one of only three in this field to have done that. He was undistinguished at two (66, 79), but blossomed after adding blinkers. He was fourth in the Lecomte, but won Tampa Bay’s preps, the Sam F. Davis (98) and Tampa Derby (100).

3) Cherry Wine (Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie) – He didn’t make it into the Derby field because of the Derby point system, but ran a strong closing second in the Preakness (96). He broke his maiden in his fifth career start on a sloppy Churchill track (75) and then won an optional claimer at Gulfstream (79). In two other graded stakes this year he ran fourth in the Rebel (87) behind Derby also-rans Whitmore and Creator. He then finished third in the Blue Grass (88) behind two additional also-rans, Brody’s Cause and My Man Sam.

4) Suddenbreakingnews (Donnie Von Hemel/Mike Smith) – You don’t often see a horse changing his sexual identity, but this guy went from being classified as a gelding to a ridgling. He ran a decent fifth in the Derby, 4 ¾ in arrears (96). Before then he was outside the exacta only once in eight career starts. Although just a neck (and DQ) away from being undefeated in five career starts at Remington Park at two, his highest Beyer was a 77. Moving on to Oaklawn, he won the Southwest (93), ran fifth in the Rebel, 4 ¾ lengths back (86), before finishing well for second in the Arkansas Derby (94).

5) Stradivari (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – Only three entrants have run triple-digit Beyers, including this guy. After running an unremarkable fourth (68) in his career opener at Aqueduct in November, he returned four weeks later to break his maiden by 11 ¼ (79). We didn’t see him again for 19 weeks when he won a Keeneland allowance by 14 ½ in a six-horse field, and getting that 100 speed figure. He finished 4^th in the Preakness with a Beyer of 95.

6) Gettysburg (Steve Asmussen/Paco Lopez) – According to press reports, his sole purpose in this even is to be a rabbit for owner Winstar’s Farms other entrant, Creator. He has a lone win in seven career starts, but did run a credible fifth in the Arkansas Derby (87) behind Creator and Suddenbreakingnews.

7) Seeking the Soul (Dallas Stewart/Florent Geroux) – Owner Charles Fipke is apparently getting carried away with Stewart’s ability to spring bombs in Triple Crown races. This guy broke his maiden by a neck (88) on Memorial Day weekend, so the Belmont Stakes is the obvious next step.

8) Forever d’Oro (Dallas Stewart/Jose Ortiz) – Owner Charles Fipke is apparently getting carried away with Stewart’s ability to spring bombs in Triple Crown races. This guy broke his maiden by a nose (81) on Memorial Day weekend, so the Belmont Stakes is the obvious next step.

9) Trojan Nation (Patrick Gallagher/Aaron Gryder) – In his first five starts in Maiden Special Weights in California, he had three thirds, with his best Beyer being a 74. His connections shipped him across the country for the Grade I Wood Memorial where he almost pulled off an 81-1 shocker, losing by a head to Outlook and bumping his top Beyer to 93. He drew the Dreaded One Hole at Churchill, checked at the start and finished 16^th, almost 27 back. It’s easy to dismiss this guy because he has yet to win. But his connections saw something that led them to ship across the country for the Wood when there are no shortage of opportunities in their back yard. And, he’s been tearing up the training track back in California, just as he did before the Wood (and the Derby).

10) Lani (Mikio Matsunaga/Yutaka Take) – He is the most traveled of the entrants, having raced on three continents, twice run in races at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles, twice at the Derby’s 10 furlongs and twice more at 9. Although bred in Kentucky (Tapit out of a Sunday Silence mare), his first five starts were in Japan where he broke his maiden and won an ungraded stake. He won by ¾ length in Dubai at the Preakness distance in a seven-horse field. DRF.com estimates that the Beyer was an 83. His Derby fig was an 87, and his 5th in the Preakness came back at 94. He and the Preakness winner are the only ones to compete in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

11) Exaggerator (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) – The Preakness winner (101) has now run three strong races in a row. He was closing in the Derby to finish second (101), but was not threatening the winner. His romp in the Santa Anita Derby was the most visually impressive performance in any of the preps. He scored by 6 ¼ on the sloppy surface, earning the highest Beyer (103) of any entrant in this field. His five wins each came at a different track, including a MSW at Del Mar (77), the Saratoga Special (85) and the Delta Downs Jackpot (92). He ran fourth by 3 lengths in the Juvenile (84), second in the San Vicente (98) and third in the San Felipe (96). While he definitely moves up on a wet track, his fast track form is not too shabby.

12) Brody’s Cause (Dale Romans/Luis Saez) – The winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (91) broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in his first start on dirt (74), then followed that up with a Grade I win (88) at Keeneland. He was 7th in the Derby, 9 ½ back (89). In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland, he ran a solid third, 2 ¾ lengths behind Nyquist (84). Except for a poor performance in his initial race on the grass (14) and then a dismal race coming off a more than four-month layoff in the Tampa Derby (80), this guy has been a solid performer. He is one of several deep closers in the field.

13) Creator (Steve Asmussen/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – It took six to break his maiden (80), but he came back to run third, 3 lengths back in the Grade II Rebel (90). He continued his Oaklawn Park hot streak by closing from last to win the Arkansas Derby (96) at 12-1. He encountered trouble in the Derby (“checked, bumped hard”) and finished 13^th, almost 20 lengths back (76).

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a day in the mid-70’s with a 30% chance of thunderstorms.

ANALYSIS

For the Derby, we had three absolute principles to guide us in picking the winner. All three came through again this year. For the Preakness, we had only one – the winner must have raced in the Derby. While I do not have any for the Belmont, I think deep closers are up against it. So, right off the bat, we are going to eliminate horses fitting that profile: Cherry Wine, Suddenbreakingnews, Trojan Nation, Lani, Brody’s Cause and Creator. Yikes – that’s almost half of the field and includes the fourth, fifth and sixth morning line favorites.

Then there is the crew with just a maiden win – two of which only won on Memorial Day weekend – and, of course, not counting the colt seeking that elusive W after seven career starts: Gettysburg, Seeking the Soul, and Forever d’Oro.

We are down to four: Governor Malibu, Destin, Stradivari and Exaggerator.

Exaggerator is, obviously, the most accomplished of this group and the most likely winner. I am having difficulty seeing the lightly-raced Stradivari, who had a 19-week gap between his last two-year old start and the initial one of this year on April 17 as having a sufficient base for the Belmont’s mile-and-one-half. Then again, Todd Pletcher is doing OK without seeking me out for training advice. Governor Malibu ran well in the Peter Pan, but in his only other effort in open company, he was DQ’d from a nose win over Awesome Speed, who ran to his odds of 52-1 in the Preakness, finishing 9^th, more than 20 lengths back.

So, once again, I am going with Destin. Horses I like to finish in the exotics at juicy prices are Lani and Trojan Nation.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton has shown little interest in this year’s race. He did get off my lap as I was writing about Exaggerator, usually an indication of feline displeasure. Then again, maybe he was just trying to get fed. But, chalk eaters take note.

The 2016 PREAKNESS

second edition

When: Saturday, May 21

Where: Baltimore, Maryland

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 2:30. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:45

“...speed figures have become one of the biggest jokes in racing…”

– Trainer Dale Romans, quoted in Thoroughbred Racing Commentary, whose Derby horse finished seventh with a figure of 89 following his last-race career best of 91

Even those who contested the Derby are mostly on the sidelines. Twenty-two horses were entered, twenty ran, but only two of them are showing up at Pimlico to challenge the Derby winner in an eleven-horse field.

THE FIELD

1) Cherry Wine (Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie) – He didn’t make it into the Derby field because of points. He broke his maiden in his fifth career start on a sloppy Churchill track (75) and then won an optional claimer at Gulfstream (79). In two graded stakes this year he ran fourth in the Rebel (87) behind Derby also-rans Whitmore and Creator. He then finished third in the Blue Grass (88) behind two additional also-rans, Brody’s Cause and My Man Sam.

2) Uncle Lino (Gary Sherlock/Fernando Perez) – He is bringing his California form east as one of several possible pace-setters. He broke his maiden at Delmar (86) in November. He has four two-turn races under his belt this year, including a second in the Robert B. Lewis (90), a fourth by 10 lengths in the San Felipe (84), a third in the Santa Anita Derby (90) by 8 ½ , and most recently a W in the ungraded California Chrome at Los Alamitos (95). While his last race fig is the fourth best of any entrant, he has now finished a combined 15 ¾ lengths behind Exaggerator the two times he has faced him.

3) Nyquist (Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez) – What’s left to say? He is the Juvenile Champion, undefeated, and has won five Grade I races, each at a different track in both the West and the East. His connections already have a Preakness win. And, as with the Derby, every one of his competitors has a major question. The reservation about him had been his speed numbers, but the Derby came in at a respectable 103. And, as they say, I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you. His Beyers, in reverse chronological order, are 103, 94, 101, 89, 79, 82, 89, 84.

4) Awesome Speed (Alan Goldberg/Jevian Toledo) – He’s won four of six lifetime starts, but in his only foray into graded stakes competition he finished fourth, 13 lengths behind Mohaymen (and 6 ¾ in arrears to Fellowship) in the Grade II Fountain of Youth (74). Three of the wins have been in ungraded stakes (83, 87, 87) including being bumped up via a DQ in the Federico Tesio at Laurel.

5) Exaggerator (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) – He was closing in the Derby to finish second, but was not threatening the winner. His romp in the Santa Anita Derby was the most visually impressive performance in any of the preps. He scored by 6 ¼ on the sloppy surface, earning the highest Beyer (103) of any entrant prior to the Derby. His Derby fig comes in at 101. His four wins each came at a different track, including a MSW at Del Mar (77), the Saratoga Special (85) and the Delta Downs Jackpot (92). He ran fourth by 3 lengths in the Juvenile (84), second in the San Vicente (98) and third in the San Felipe (96). While he definitely moves up on a wet track, his fast track form is not too shabby.

6) Lani (Mikio Matsunaga/Yutaka Take) – He is the most traveled of the entrants, having raced on three continents, and run in races at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles, twice at 10 furlongs and twice more at 9. Although bred in Kentucky (Tapit out of a Sunday Silence mare), his first five starts were in Japan where he broke his maiden and won an ungraded stake. He won by ¾ length in Dubai at the Preakness distance in a seven-horse field. DRF.com estimates that the Beyer was an 83. His Derby fig was an 87.

7) Collected (Bob Baffert/Javier Castellano) – He is undefeated on fast dirt tracks, including the Grade III Sham (81), an ungraded stake at Sunland (90) and most recently the Grade III Lexington (90). In his only start against horses who ran in the Derby, he finished fourth on a “good” track in the Southwest (85), 5 ¼ lengths behind Suddenbreakingnews. He figures on being an early pace factor.

8) Laoban (Eric Guillot/Florent Geroux) – Derby maiden Trojan Nation is seeking greener pastures – or is it more forgiving competition – but there will be another in the Pimlico starting gate. He has lost at five different tracks, and his top Beyer is an 85. He finished third in the Sham behind Collected (76), second in the Gotham behind a Derby DNF (85), and fourth in the Blue Grass, three lengths behind Cherry Wine (84). If you are known by the company you keep, this guy needs new friends.

9) Abiding Star (Ned Allard/J.D. Acosta) – He won the Derby on the First Saturday in May. It was the Parx Derby, however, an ungraded $100,000 stake with a five-horse field. While it was technically not a restricted event, it was limited to horses stabled on the Parx grounds because of an outbreak of equine herpes virus, a contagious disease that killed four of the seven that contracted it. While Parx declared the threat over on Tuesday, clearing the way for the colt to leave, Pimlico officials are taking no chances. He will be quarantined in a stall specially built for him, and will be permitted to train only at 5:00 a.m. when only horses shipping in from Parx will be allowed on the track. I have not been able to determine if he will also be required to run the Preakness on the turf track. He broke his maiden in his sixth career start on January 1 in a $40,000 maiden claimer (67). That was the start of a five-race undefeated streak in which he also won the ungraded $75.000 Private Terms (79). His Beyers have increased in each start this year, culminating in a 91 for the Parx Derby.

10) Fellowship (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano) – He is the most heavily-raced entrant. After breaking his maiden in his first start, he has won only once in 11 subsequent trips to the post, a restricted stake at Gulfstream (74) in October. While he had three consecutive thirds in Derby preps including the Florida Derby behind Nyquist, his career best Beyer is an 87 in that race. He did run at Churchill on the First Saturday in May, but it was in the Grade III Pat Day Mile, finishing fourth (86).

11) Stradivari (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – Only three entrants have run triple-digit Beyers – the first two in the Derby and this guy. After running an unremarkable fourth (68) in his career opener at Aqueduct in November, he returned four weeks later to break his maiden by 11 ¼ (79). We didn’t see him again for 19 weeks when he won a Keeneland allowance by 14 ½ in a six-horse field, and getting that 100 speed figure.

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a dreary day with a 100 per cent of rain and a high of 58°. I am not considering an off track as being a significant factor in my handicapping.

ANALYSIS

For the Derby, we had three absolute principles to guide us in picking the winner. All three came through again this year. For the Preakness, we have only one – the winner must have raced in the Derby. While there have been exceptions to the rule, I do not think any of the new shooters bring to mind Rachel Alexandra, who will be entering the Hall of Fame this year alongside Zenyatta. No one among the new shooters has a resume that suggests enshrinement, let alone the ability to beat the top pair from the Derby.

In the Derby Blue Ribbon, we postulated that it may be a competitive field, but only because the overall quality seemed somewhat suspect. Nyquist and Exaggerator proved to be the best of the lot, and it is hard to come up with a credible threat from the remaining entrants in this contest. Despite trainer Romans’ disparaging of speed figures – and they were remarkably accurate with his horse – the numbers produced by Andy Beyer and his crew are reliable indicators of past performances indicating future behavior. It is, of course, only a tool, and when assessing three-year old races in the spring, big improvements often happen.

Winning a Triple Crown race generally requires a three-digit Beyer. Not only does the Preakness field have only three who have hit that mark, but only one other horse has surpassed a 91! It is a field more suggestive of Grade III horses than Classic winners.

So, right off the bat, we are going to eliminate Abiding Star, Awesome Speed, Cherry Wine (sorry, Dale), Collected, Fellowship, Lani and Laoban.

Stradivari is one of only three to have posed a triple-digit fig. But this is only his second start this year – after an unusually long break for a horse trying a Triple Crown race – so it is hard to see him finishing ahead of the more experienced top pair.

Uncle Lino is intriguing for a spot in the exotics. While he has only run that one Beyer in excess of 90 – a 95 – he has been racing in high quality races, most notably against Exaggerator. But there is little to suggest that he can turn around and beat both of the top pair.

There is some thinking that Exaggerator’s big finish in the Derby makes him a good Preakness bet. And there is also what I think is a misperception that Churchill Downs was a speed-favoring surface benefitting Nyquist. That was not my opinion, having watched every race on the card, but a more compelling point is made by Alan Carasso in The Thoroughbred Daily News. He compared the fractions of the last three Derbies and concluded that this year’s was the fastest, and Nyquist, who was near the lead, did not wither – unlike the other pace-setters:

Year      1/4                       1/2                       3/4

2014      :23.04                 :47.37                  1:11.80

2015      :23.24                  :47.34                  1:11.29

2016      :22.58                  :45.72                  1:10.40

So, we are talking about a superior performance in the Derby. And, this week we learned that he is training great at Pimlico, and had a gallop that clockers thought was at fast as some works. There simply is no reason to go against the Derby winner.

I do not think Nyquist is a good bet at his morning line price of 3-5., and Exaggerator at 3-1 is only slightly more playable. Basically, this is not a good betting race unless you play some of the multi-race wagers, or the trifecta and superfecta. I am thinking of Cherry Wine as one of the few closers and a winner on a sloppy track, Uncle Lino, Lani for having started in the Derby and Stardivari because of his fig.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton has shown no interest in this year’s race. He may be having a feline fit of pique because he has never been invited to Pimlico as a celebrity even though there is a race named for Sir Barton.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2016

Second Edition

When: Saturday, May 7

Where: Louisville, Kentucky

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage on NBCSN at 2:30.

Race goes off near 6:30

“This year’s edition may have one of the strongest and most competitive fields in years.”

— Blue Ribbon Analysis, May 2015

I hate to begin with my own quote, but this has been a particularly arid week for interesting comments. It was either me or Ken Ramsey, but we will get to him later.

I don’t think we will be looking back at this year’s Derby as one of the strongest fields in years. It seems to have the same amount of depth that the Republican presidential candidates had back when there were 17 running. It may, however, turn out to be one of the most competitive, even if somewhat lackluster.

Last year we had eight entrants that posted triple digit Beyers, with four doing it more than once. (American Pharoah had four to his credit.) This year, only four have cracked the century mark (once each), and only two did so in their last race.

So quality may be elusive, but after all, it’s just a horse race, and competitive fields present a real handicapping challenge. This year’s task is complicated by the fact that three of the major preps were run over off tracks – Wood was muddy, Santa Anita sloppy, and the Florida Derby good. Early NOAA forecasts have Louisville being sunny and warm, so expect the typically lightning-fast surface.

THE FIELD

1) Trojan Nation (Patrick Gallagher/Aaron Gryder) – Three maidens have won the Derby, including Sir Barton, the first Triple Crown winner in 1919. It last happened in 1933. In his first five starts in Maiden Special Weights in California, he had three thirds, with his best Beyer being a 74. His connections shipped him across the country for the Grade I Wood Memorial where he almost pulled off an 81-1 shocker, losing by a head to Outlook and bumping his top Beyer to 93. It’s easy to dismiss this guy because he has yet to win. But his connections saw something that led them to ship across the country when there are no shortage of opportunities in their back yard. And, he’s been tearing up the training track back in California, just as he did before the Wood. It’s a year in which the possibilities for total chaos in this year’s running keep him on my list, although the post doesn’t help.

2) Suddenbreakingnews (Donnie Von Hemel/Luis Quinonez) – The gelding has been outside the exacta only once in eight career starts. Although just a neck (and DQ) away from being undefeated in five career starts at Remington Park at two, his highest Beyer was a 77. Moving on to Oaklawn, he won the Southwest (93), ran fifth in the Rebel, 4 ¾ lengths back (86), before finishing well for second in the Arkansas Derby (94).

3) Creator (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) – It took six to break his maiden (80), but he came back to run third, 3 lengths back in the Grade II Rebel (90). He continued his Oaklawn Park hot streak by closing from last to win the Arkansas Derby (96) at 12-1. He is obviously a colt on the improve in the barn of this year’s Hall of Fame trainer.

4) Mo Tom (Tom Amoss/Corey Lanerie) – Owner Tom Benson also owns the New Orleans Saints, as well as Tom’s Ready. He at one point tried to buy the Fair Grounds track, but the NFL discourages owners from being involved in gambling. For if there is one thing the National Football League will not tolerate, it’s anything related to gambling. The colt is by the new hot sire Uncle Mo. He has three wins in seven career starts, including a win going a mile on a fast Churchill Downs strip (78), and then a good third on a sloppy surface in the Kentucky Jockey Club, a Grade II event (85). His three starts this year have been at the Fair Grounds, winning the Grade III LeComte (88), a third in the Grade II Risen Star (87), and a fourth by six lengths in the Grade I Louisiana Derby (82).

5) Gun Runner – (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux) – He’s won four of five career starts at three different tracks, including breaking his maiden at Churchill (72). His only loss came on the sloppy CD surface in the Kentucky Jockey Club (82). Undefeated as a sophomore, he scored in the Risen Star (90) and the Louisiana Derby (91).

6) My Man Sam (Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr.) – Chad and Irad are two of the hottest young stars in the game, and will be partnering on this colt that may be this year’s wise guy pick. He had a furious closing kick in the Blue Grass, coming from 13th at the half-mile pole to finish second by 1 ¾ lengths (88). The Derby will be his fifth career start. He broke his maiden on Aqueduct’s inner (91) before running second in an optional claimer (95) behind another well-regarded colt.

7) Oscar Nominated (Mike Maker/Julien Leparoux) – His first six races were on the turf, befitting his pedigree (Kitten’s Joy out of a Theatrical mare). He broke his maiden in a claiming race from which he was taken by Ken and Sarah Ramsey. He won a minor stake at the Fair Grounds before upsetting Turfway’s Spiral at 24-1, earning his top Beyer of 82. The Derby will be his first race on a dirt surface. Because he was not nominated to the Triple Crown races, Ramsey had to come up with $200,000 to enter him in the Derby. Even though the Spiral win was worth $300,000, Ramsey was apparently pinched for cash, so as a “sporting gesture” he offered half of the purse winnings from the Triple Crown races to someone who fronted the money. Ramsey was the leading purse earner in 2014, the most recent full year for which equibase data is available, bringing in a mere $10.5 million. He thought he found his sucker sport. But the deal fell apart probably because of the realization he would only get his money back if the colt can run at least second twice in the three races, and Ramsey was saying he expected a top 10 finish.

8) Lani (Mikio Matsunaga/Yutaka Take) – He is the only entrant to have already gone the Derby distance, with his first career start being at 1 ¼ miles. In his other five starts, he has twice gone 1 1/8 miles and then the 1 3/16 distance in winning the UAE Derby. Although bred in Kentucky (Tapit out of a Sunday Silence mare), his first five starts were in Japan where he broke his maiden and won an ungraded stake. He won by ¾ length in Dubai in a seven-horse field. DRF.com estimates that the Beyer was an 83. The UAE Derby has yet to produce an entrant that had an impact in Louisville and I think that trend continues this year.

9) Destin (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – One of two Pletcher entrants, this one is definitely flying under the radar. He last raced two months ago in the Tampa Bay Derby, but his triple-digit Beyer is one of only four among the field, and one of only two earned in the last start. He was undistinguished at two (66, 79), but blossomed after adding blinkers. He was fourth in the Lecomte behind the Benson horses, but won Tampa Bay’s preps, the Sam F. Davis (98) and Tampa Derby (100).

10) Whitmore (Ron Moquett/Victor Espinoza) – He has hit the board in all four starts this year, including a second in the Southwest (89), another in the Rebel (92) before finishing 2 ¾ behind Creator in the Arkansas Derby (92).

11) Exaggerator (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) – His romp in the Santa Anita Derby was the most visually impressive performance in any of the preps. He scored by 6 ¼ on the sloppy surface, earning the highest Beyer (103) of any entrant. It was his fourth win at four different tracks, including a MSW at Del Mar (77), the Saratoga Special (85) and the Delta Downs Jackpot (92). He ran fourth by 3 lengths in the Juvenile (84), second in the San Vicente (98) and third in the San Felipe (96). While he definitely moves up on a wet track, his fast track form is not too shabby.

12) Tom’s Ready (Dallas Stewart/Brian Hernandez Jr.) – Trainer Stewart placed bombers in the second slot of the exacta in 2013 and 2014. This guy would fit that mold. He has only one career win, breaking his maiden on a fast Churchill strip (76), and followed that with a good second to stable mate Mo Tom in an ungraded stake at CD. Then he finished a distant 8th in the sloppy Kentucky Jockey Club (67). He ran a good second to Mo Tom in the LeComte (84) before running a dismal 7th in the Risen Star (69). His career Beyer top of 85 came with a second, 4 ½ lengths behind Gun Runner, in the Louisiana Derby.

13) Nyquist (Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez) – What’s not to like about this guy? He is the Juvenile Champion, undefeated, and has won four Grade I races at different tracks in both the West and the East. His connections already have a Derby win. And every one of his competitors has a major question. Yet the morning line projects him as the favorite at 3-1 – he’s been favored in every prior start. It’s the speed numbers. His Beyers, in reverse chronological order, are 94, 101, 89, 79, 82, 89, 84. While the last pair certainly put him with the other top contenders, they don’t exactly blow you away.

14) Mohaymen (Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado) – The heralded West Coast-East Coast matchup fizzled in the Florida Derby like Jeb Bush’s campaign. This heretofore undefeated colt made a bold move to threaten front-runner Nyquist heading for home, but was peremptorily dismissed, finishing fourth by 8 ¼ lengths, earning the lowest last-race Beyer of any entrant with an 80. Prior to that, he had won all five races, including four Grade II’s – the Nashua (89), Remsen (95), Holy Bull (95) and Fountain of Youth (95).

15) Outwork (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – Only a length loss to Pletcher’s other starter, Destin, stands between this guy and an undefeated career. Admittedly that career has been brief. He broke his maiden over a year ago going 4 ½ at Keeneland (no fig) before going on the shelf for almost 10 months. He won an optional claiming sprint at Tampa (77), lost to his stable mate in the Tampa Derby (98) before holding off the longshot maiden in the muddy Wood (93). He is obviously talented, and presents one of this year’s most vexing questions. An unraced 2-year old has not won the Derby since 1882. Does a 4 ½ race in April with no subsequent juvenile activity count as unraced?

16) Shagaf (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) – This guy was getting a lot of buzz before the Wood Memorial. He was undefeated, owned by Shadwell and trained by the best young trainer in the country, so it was little surprise that he went off as the favorite. He then ran an unimpressive fifth, finishing behind the 81-1 maiden, Trojan Nation. In his prior three starts, including a win on Aqueduct’s inner dirt in the Gotham (87), his top Beyer was an 88 in his maiden. His four-length defeat on Aqueduct’s muddy surface brought in another 87.

17) Mor Spirit (Bob Baffert/Gary Stevens) – This colt has not finished out of the exacta in seven career starts, in which he has been the favorite each time. Two of his seconds came on sloppy surfaces – the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill and the Santa Anita Derby. (It’s interesting how Baffert always seems to get in a start at Churchill for his promising two-year olds.) He won the Grade I Los Alamitos Futurity (88) and the Grade III Robert B. Lewis (93) before finishing second to Danzig Candy in the San Felipe (97) and to Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby (94).

18) Majesto (Gustavo Delgado/Emisael Jaramillo) – The all-time leading jockey in Venezuela is getting the call on this colt who finished second in the Florida Derby, 3 ¼ lengths in arrears (89). It took five starts to break his maiden in claiming company, so the biggest surprise about his finish in a race with an odds-on fav and an even money second choice is that he was only 21-1. To give you an idea of the quality in this race – aside from the top pair – there were four entrants at 100-1 or higher

19) Brody’s Cause (Dale Romans/Luis Saez) – The winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (91) broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in his first start on dirt (74), then followed that up with a Grade I win (88) at Keeneland. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland, he ran a solid third, 2 ¾ lengths behind Nyquist (84). Except for a poor performance in his initial race on the grass (14) and then a dismal race coming off a more than four-month layoff in the Tampa Derby (80), this guy has been a solid performer. He is one of several deep closers in the field.

20) Danzing Candy (Clifford Sise Jr./Mike Smith) – He is one of the four horses in the field to have run a triple-digit Beyer. If the winner is going to go wire-to-wire, it is most likely this guy. His three career wins have been accomplished in this style, including the Grade II San Felipe (100). In the Santa Anita Derby, however, he grabbed an uncontested lead but then faded to fourth, 13 ¼ lengths back (83). It was not what one would call an auspicious prep.

Also Eligible

21) Laoban (Eric Guillot/) SCRATCHED

22) Cherry Wine SCRATCHED

THE WEATHER

The weather is unlikely to be a factor with the NOAA predicting a sunny day in the 70’s to 80’s.

ANALYSIS

This year, however, I am inclined to be somewhat more flexible. In part because three of the final major preps had off tracks, which we are not likely to see on Saturday. And then there is the quality of the field. In a year with only one possible standout and 19 of questionable ability, the chance for a tote board buster is high.

In assessing the impact of the wet tracks in the preps, I am looking at the difference between a horse’s performance on fast tracks with those on the wet surface. Mohaymen comes to mind, although he seemed to handle the surface fine until he got near Nyquist. Danzig Candy is another, although he also seemed to be going fine on the lead (and he wasn’t having mud kicked in his face). Exaggerator obviously relished the sloppy Santa Anita surface, but his prior two fast tracks Beyers (96, 98) are in line with the SA Derby fig of 103. So I am not adjusting my assessment of any of them because they were on a fast track. Mor Spirit, however, ran second in the Santa Anita prep, but was far behind the winner. It’s the second time he has run second on an off surface – including once at Churchill – so I’m giving him a break.

Going back to the three principles: The need for a two-year old race is paramount. I think it is based upon the necessity of building a solid base at two that becomes the springboard for running the Triple Crown distances in the spring. Even though Outwork did race at two, it was in April going 4 ½ furlongs. He did not race again until mid-February, so I am not going to be picking him as a possible winner.

The necessity of having a good last race knocks out Mo Tom, Mohaymen and Danzig Candy.

The need for competitive Beyer figures further narrows the list of possibles by knocking out Gun Runner, Oscar Nominated, Lani, Whitmore, Tom’s Ready, Shagaf, Majesto and Brody’s Cause.

That’s gets us down to eight. As intrigued as I am by Trojan Nation, he drew the Dreaded One Hole, and I would not pick Nyquist coming out of there. The second post isn’t much better, and I have enough reservations about Suddenbreakingnews to not pick him for the top slot. My Man Sam is also part of this trio of deep closers, and ran his best Beyers running in lesser races on Aqueduct’s inner track. I can see him picking up a piece, but not the top spot.

So we have the five most likely winners: It’s hard to fault a horse who just keeps on winning, but it is also hard to wager on a horse with somewhat light Beyers at projected odds of 3-1. I think it would be foolish to leave Nyquist out of any exotic wagers, but will not bet him to win. Creator is that dangerous improving three-year old who would need his fifth straight increase in his Beyers to run what it should take to win this race. I do not think his morning line odds of 10-1 make him a worthwhile bet, although should they go higher, it’s worth a shot. We gave Mor Spirit a pass on his 6 ¼ defeat at the feet of Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby because of the sloppy surface, but that is still a lot of ground to make up.

I think the most likely winner is Exaggerator, and his morning line price of 8-1 is a square one for a horse who dominated in his last start. But I also think Destin at 15-1 is too intriguing to go by without at least a modest win wager.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton is one of the few handicappers guaranteed to have a positive ROI for his career. Two years ago he came up with the California Chrome – Commanding Curve exacta at $340. Last year it was a $1,268 super. And let’s not forget Funny Cide, his first ever pick. He is named after the first Triple Crown winner Sir Barton, one of only three maidens to win the Derby.

His standard for selecting normally entails getting on me while I work and purring loudly as I write about a particular horse. He has only done it for one horse – Destin.

BELMONT STAKES 2015

First Edition

UPDATE: Bloodhorse.com is reporting morning downpours with more rain in the forecast

When: Saturday, June 6

Where: Elmont, New York

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 2:30. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:50

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com), and bloodhorse.com. The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

If you have read or heard anything about this year’s Belmont Stakes, you know American Pharoah will be running to become the 12^th Triple Crown winner in history, and is the 13^th to attempt the feat since it was last won by Affirmed in 1978. The 36-year drought easily surpasses the 25-year gap between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 1973.

Pharoah is clearly the fastest and most accomplished three-year old this year. His seven opponents in Saturday’s race have won a combined two Grade I’s among them. Three of the seven can only claim a single win in a maiden. Pharoah is on a six-race winning streak, with five of those coming in a Grade I. But there are plenty of good three-year olds who have failed in their attempt at the Triple Crown. And, as Mike Watchmaker at drf.com points out, no horse has won the Triple Crown without previously having raced at Belmont.

I wrote the following last year, but it is certainly as relevant to this one: “One of the biggest factors in why winning is so difficult is the track itself. The Belmont oval is 1 ½ miles long. By contrast, both Churchill Downs and Pimlico are only a mile. Jockeys talk about how you can get “lost” out there. It may sound improbable – and, of course, is not literally true – but the sweeping turn as you head into the stretch seems to go on forever. Richard Migliore was quoted in Bloodhorse.com: ‘The problem is you’re not three furlongs from home at that point. You’re probably four and a half furlongs from the wire. And once you give the horse that cue, you can’t take it back.’

The cue to which Migliore refers is that signal the jockey gives the horse to pick up the pace. If Victor Espinoza decides to move too soon, he will join a growing list of jockeys blamed for costing their horse the Triple Crown because of a premature move.”

This will be Victor Espinoza’s third attempt at the Triple Crown, so he has some experience with the Belmont strip, including last year with California Chrome. But he has no mounts on Thursday, two on Friday and three on Saturday’s undercard. One of his Saturday races will be on grass, but he gets a shot at the Belmont distance in that day’s Brooklyn Invitational.

Incidentally, the New York Racing Association has put together an outstanding undercard for this day, the best you’ll see between Dubai’s World Cup Day in March and the Breeders’ Cup in November. There are ten stakes in all, nine of which are graded, including six Grade I’s. The first post is 11:35. For the earlier events, you will probably need a horse racing channel, but NBC Sports Network picks up coverage at 2:30 before switching over to NBC at 4:30. Post time for the Belmont is 6:50.

THE FIELD

1) Mubtaahij (Mike de Kock/Irad Ortiz Jr.) – He was an impressive winner of the UAE Derby in Dubai, but that event has not exactly turned into a precursor of success in the States. He ran eighth in the Derby, 9 ½ back, earning a mediocre Beyer of 91. The trainer is one of the best in the world, and is the primary reason to back this colt.

2) Tale of Verve (Dallas Stewart/Gary Stevens) – Trainer Stewart has developed a niche specialty of running absolute bombers in Triple Crown races that finish second. He did it in the Derby in 2012 and 2013, and saw this guy run second in the Preakness at odds of 29-1. As remarkable as this streak may be, it is perhaps less remarkable that his two place finishers at Churchill had no subsequent success. I’m predicting the same fate for this one. His lone win was at the same distance as the Preakness in his previous race. The Pimlico effort earned him a 91 Beyer, so maybe his niche is races at 1 3/16 miles.

3) Madefromlucky (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – He has a steady, albeit slow, increase in Beyers, most recently a 94 in Belmont’s Peter Pan Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. That makes him the only entrant with a win on Big Sandy. In his two preceding races, he was defeated handily by Pharoah.

4) Frammento (Nick Zito/Mike Smith) – You have to go back to October to find his sole victory. He has now lost six in a row, but starting to increase his Beyers with the addition of blinkers, topping out with an 87 in the Derby where he finished 11^th, 12 back of the winner. Interestingly after three starts with the shades, Zito is now removing them for the Belmont.

5) American Pharoah (Bob Baffert/Victor Espinoza) – Perhaps you have heard of him. Six wins in a row, five in Grade I stakes. His six triple digit Beyers are more than the rest of the field combined.

6) Frosted (Kiaran McLaughlin/Joel Rosario) – Prior to running in the Fountain of Youth, he had become the “buzz” horse, but then disappointed with a fourth, 4 ¾ behind the winner. In his second start with blinkers, he won the Wood Memorial (103) before finishing fourth in the Derby (100), 3 ¼ back. He skipped the Preakness, but has been working nicely at Belmont over recent weeks.

7) Keen Ice (Dale Romans/Kent Desormeaux) – He has run in six graded stakes since his lone win in September. His top efforts have been a third in the Risen Star (88) and probably his Derby finish of 7^th, 6 ¾ behind the winner (92).

8) Materiality (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – No three-year old, not even American Pharoah, has run a better Beyer than this guy in the Florida Derby (110). That win made him 3-for-3, all in 2015 before he finished a troubled sixth, 7 ¾ in arrears in the Derby (94).

THE WEATHER

The weather is unlikely to be a factor with the National Weather Service predicting a partly sunny day in the high 70’s.

ANALYSIS

$20.40, $29.60, $7.50, $51.50, $28.00, $25.80, $79.00. Those are the winning parimutuels for the last seven runnings of this race, so a bomber has become the norm rather than the chalk.

That makes it difficult to toss anyone from the mix, but I think there are enough good horses in the field that some winnowing must be done. Thus, I do not like the chances of the following longshots (with their morning lines in parentheses): Tale of Verve (15-1), Frammento (30-1), and Keen Ice (20-1). Each of them has but a single win to its name.

I don’t think either Mubtaahij (10-1) or Madefromlucky (12-1) will win, because I think there are three others with more upside. (This, by the way, is the same bucket in which I placed last year’s winner, Tonalist.

I have not gone back and checked the records, but I think every year in which a Triple Crown was on the line, I picked the Derby and Preakness winner to prevail. That obviously has not worked out, so I hope to release my jinx by not picking American Pharoah.

Of the remaining duo, I think either can win, but I think Frosted is the one with the pedigree more likely to handle the distance.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

As is his wont – he is, after all, a cat – Barton has displayed no interest in picking this year’s event.

The 2015 PREAKNESS – early edition

When: Saturday, May 16

Where: Baltimore, Maryland

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 2:30. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:18

“I’m the luckiest Mexican on earth.”

– Victor Espinoza

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

Even those who contested the Derby are mostly on the sidelines. Twenty-two horses were entered, eighteen ran, but only four of them are showing up at Pimlico to challenge the Derby winner in an eight-horse field.

The Derby, however, demonstrated that this crop of three-year olds has some very talented runners, including the four who crossed the finish line ahead of their colleagues. They are marked by consistency at a high-level and we should be in for a very interesting year.

THE FIELD

1) American Pharoah (Bob Baffert/Victor Espinoza) – The hype on this guy continued to grow as the Derby approached. He was compared to Seattle Slew and one long-time clocker was quoted as saying he was the best horse he had seen in 35 years. I cannot say either characterization was accurate after his Derby. While he did grit out the win, Jockey Espinoza went to his whip 32 times in the stretch. There are two schools of thought on his Preakness chances. One is that it will be his third race in five weeks and the schedule may catch up with him. He also had physical problems at two, causing him to miss the Juvenile. The other is that he needed a tough race after his previous romps in order to get tight enough. The colt has yet to lose after removing the blinkers he wore in his first start, with each win coming in a Grade I or II. His Derby Beyer of 105 matched his Arkansas Derby fig. The son of Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, won the Del Mar Futurity (101) by 4 ¾ on a synthetic surface, the Santa Anita Front Runner (101) by 3 ¼, the Oaklawn Rebel (100) by 6 ¼, and his Arkansas Derby (105) tour de force by 8.

2) Dortmund – (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia) – The son of Derby winner Big Brown is on the verge of becoming the Rodney Dangerfield of this year’s three-year old crop. Even though he was undefeated with an impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby, his fourth consecutive graded stakes victory, he lost Derby favoritism to American Pharoah. He could not hold his Derby lead, finishing third, three lengths back of Pharoah, earning a 101. In his prior starts, he had two tough races in the Grade I Los Alamitos Futurity (91) and the Grade III Robert B. Lewis (104), each time edging Firing Line by a head. He then won the San Felipe by 1 ¼ lengths (106) before wiring the field in the Santa Anita Derby (105) by 4 ¼ lengths, even though he lost a shoe at the start.

3) Mr. Z (Wayne Lukas/Corey Nakatani) – He broke his maiden (62) in his first career start at Churchill Downs, and has gone on to lose 12 in a row, most recently finishing 13th by 15 ½ lengths in the Derby (82). Eleven of those 12 defeats came in graded stakes, where he has four seconds and two thirds. But his top Beyer is a 91 in the Los Alamitos Futurity when he was a head behind Dortmund. The coach is a major proponent of “you can’t win it if you’re not in it,” but picking him to win is a major stretch.

4) Danzig Moon (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) – His lone win came at Gulfstream on February 7, breaking his maiden (87) by 4 ½ lengths. He ran second in the Blue Grass by three lengths (90) before a fifth-place Derby finish (95), 6 ½ lengths back.

5) Tale of Verve (Dallas Stewart/Joel Rosario) – Trainer Stewart is hoping that lightning strikes three years in a row. His long-shot Derby starters ran second in 2013 and 2014, but this guy did not make it into this year’s field. He has no business being in this race. He finally broke his maiden three weeks ago in his sixth career start, matching his career best Beyer of 72. That puts him more than 30 lengths behind the Derby’s top three.

6) Bodhisattva (Jose Corrales/Trevor McCarthy) – And I’ve been having trouble spelling “Pharoah.” The Preakness will be his 12^th career start, and he has a remarkable pattern of never running a Beyer that is lower than his previous start. But his top of 91 in winning Pimlico’s Federico Tesio is not a fig that will threaten the top three.

7) Divining Rod (Arnaud Delacour/Javier Castellano) – This is a promising son of top sire Tapit. He finished second in Tampa’s Sam F. Davis by a neck (93), before running third in the Tampa Bay Derby (85), 7 ½ lengths in arrears to Carpe Diem. He then won Keeneland’s Lexington by three (98).

8) Firing Line (Simon Callaghan/Gary Stevens) – After his Derby defeat by a length, he is now less than two lengths away from being undefeated in six career starts. He failed to change leads down the Churchill stretch, an energy-saving move that could have allowed him to hold off Pharoah. Two of his three defeats came to Dortmund, losing by a head in both the Grade I Los Alamos Futurity and the Grade III Robert B. Lewis. He scored by 14 lengths in the Sunland Derby, earning a 97 Beyer in the process. His top fig is a 104 in his second-place Derby finish.

THE WEATHER

The National Weather Service is predicting a day in the 80’s, with a 40 per cent chance of thunderstorms.

ANALYSIS

For the Derby, we had three absolute principles to guide us in picking the winner. All three came through again this year. For the Preakness, we have only one – the winner must have raced in the Derby. While there have been exceptions to the rule, I do not think Tale of Verve, Bodhisattva or Divining Rod are reminiscent of Red Bullet. Each of that group has yet to demonstrate the level of talent that will be required to beat the best of their generation.

Mr. Z is riding that 12-race losing streak and has the inimitable Wayne Lukas in his corner, but again, I cannot see him defeating any of the top three. While Danzig Moon was one of the biggest surprises to me in the Derby with his fifth-place finish, he was part of the race’s merry-go-round as he ran from fourth to sixth all the way around before losing ground at the finish. I cannot see him making the forward move needed to unseat the Big Three.

The top three have proved their mettle throughout their careers. If we toss American Pharoah’s initial start, the trio has a combined record of 13-4-1 from 18 starts. Dortmund’s Derby third is the only blemish on his record, and Firing Line is less than two lengths from being undefeated. While one or two of this group may falter in the Preakness, there is no reason to think that all three would. So the winner comes from this group.

I do not think American Pharoah is a good bet at his morning line price of 4-5. It is hard to separate Dortmund at 7-2 from Firing Line at 4-1, but I think Dortmund is going to rebound from his Derby effort. Basically, however, this is not a good betting race.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

After picking last year’s $340 Derby exacta and a $1200 super this year, Barton expressed interest only in Dortmund. He got on my lap, slept for a bit and then started purring before he went back to sleep. It takes a while to type with one finger while holding a cat.

RIP B.B. King

KENTUCKY DERBY 2015

First Edition

Update: El Kabeir scratched

Update #2: International Star scratched

When: Saturday, May 2

Where: Louisville, Kentucky

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 2:30. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:34

⇒ Churchill Downs Inc. CEO “acknowledged they see little opportunity for racing growth outside” of Derby week.

– as reported by Blood-Horse staff

The factual information contained herein is from a number of sources, including The Daily Racing Form (drf.com), BloodHorse.com, thoroughbreddailynews.com. The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

The first race track I went to was Churchill Downs for the 1986 Kentucky Derby. I was awestruck. There were the iconic towers and electricity in the air when the band played My Old Kentucky Home. I got chills when the gates opened and the horses went thundering down the track. I returned to Churchill for many years for the Oaks, Derby and the Breeders’ Cup. If you love horse racing, Kentucky is a special place, whether you are in Louisville or in the Lexington area. You can’t go anywhere Derby Week without someone asking you who you like.

I stopped going to the Derby when Churchill announced there would be a “seat licensing fee” of $3200 for the privilege of buying our seats for the upcoming five years. We’re not talking a box in the clubhouse. Our four seats were on a backless metal bench that had numbers painted at intervals to separate one seat from another. It was in the open air, a treat on a day in the 70’s, but less so in inclement weather or a broiling sun.

That licensing fee was but a harbinger of the path Churchill was on to extract every possible penny from their signature event. Even those towers are now in large part obscured because of the ongoing effort to build lavish seating areas for the wealthy. Churchill’s disregard for its customers led the Horseplayers Association of North America to lead a boycott of Churchill last year. Other tracks owned by Churchill such as the Fair Grounds and Arlington Park are experiencing the neglect of a parent company that is now more focused on casinos than racing. I suppose the CEO’s comments could be refreshing for his honesty, but depressing in so many other ways.

But the Derby is the Derby – it is truly America’s race. This year’s edition may have one of the strongest and most competitive fields in years. I do not think there was a long shot winner in any of the preps. The longest win price paid in any of the five Grade I American races was Frosted’s $6.40 in the Wood. Eight of the entrants have posted triple-digit Beyers. Last year six did. Only California Chrome reached that level twice last year. This year, Materiality has done it twice, Dortmund and Upstart three times, and American Pharaoh four times. So we could be in for a classic Classic.

THE FIELD

1) Ocho Ocho Ocho (Jim Cassidy/Elvis Trujillo) – While Elvis will be in the house, he will not be in the winner’s circle after the 11th race. The colt won his first three races, including the Grade III Delta Jackpot where he earned his career Beyer top of 90. As a sophomore, however, he finished 15 ½ lengths in arrears to Dortmund in the San Felipe (76) before a third in the Blue Grass (86), 5 ½ lengths behind Carpe Diem. There is no reason to think he can win the Derby.

2) Carpe Diem (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – When Keeneland switched from a dirt track to a synthetic surface, the Blue Grass Stakes went from a major prep race for the Derby to basically a non-factor. Now that the race is again on dirt, it will be interesting to see how this year’s winner fares on Saturday. He is an intriguing colt given connections who thought enough of him at an OBS two-year old sale to plunk down $1.6 million for him. He has made back almost that much, winning four of five starts, including three Grade I’s and a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (93). His top Beyer is a 98 from the Tampa Bay Derby, a five-length win. His Blue Grass score was by three, but his Beyer came back at 95.

3) Materiality (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – It seems that every year there is a very talented three-year old who comes to the Derby without having raced at two. And every year since 1882, no horse has won without having made that two-year old start. This colt was an impressive winner of the Florida Derby, beating the seasoned Upstart, earning the field’s best Beyer with a 110. I think the streak that currently stands at 132 years is more than an historical oddity. Getting young horses to win at a mile-and-one-quarter on the First Saturday in May requires a solid foundation of training and racing. Runners say you cannot cheat the marathon, and I think a similar principle applies here. This horse may turn out to be a great one, but I am not bucking the historical evidence.

4) Tencendur (George Weaver/Manny Franco) – One of three New York-breds in the field, his last effort produced a triple digit Beyer (100) in Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial where he finished second, two lengths behind Frosted. In four previous starts, his top fig was an 89 in the Withers coming after his lone win in a state-bred race on a sloppy track (75). It’s hard to get too excited about his prospects for winning, but the Beyer jump suggests another improvement may be forthcoming, making him a candidate for the super.

5) Danzig Moon (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) – His lone win came at Gulfstream on February 7, breaking his maiden (87) by 4 ½ lengths. He is at least getting to closer to Carpe Diem, finishing 3 lengths behind in the Blue Grass (90) after logging in 12 ½ back in the Tampa Bay Derby (76). There is no reason to think he will be wearing the roses.

6) Mubtaahij (Mike de Kock/Christophe Soumillon) – Trainer de Kock is one of the best in the world and would be familiar to American racing fans because of his frequent appearances in the winner’s circle in Dubai during their World Cup Day. The colt is a head away from being undefeated in five dirt starts, all of them at Meydan. His last was an impressive eight-length score in the UAE Derby. Andy Beyer’s crew figured his Beyer at 97. His last two wins came in races that were “about” 1 3/16 miles, a distance that no one else in the field has raced.

7) El Kabeir (John Terranova II/Calvin Borel) – SCRATCHED Calvin Borel has already won with this guy at Churchill Downs, taking the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club back in November with a 94 Beyer. That fact will likely drive his morning line odds down several ticks, even though there is little to suggest he is capable of winning the Derby. Most recently, he finished third in the Wood Memorial, 5 ¾ lengths behind Frosted, earning another 94. Those matching 94’s appear to be his level. He got his Beyer top of 95 on January 1, following that with a 93, 88 and the Wood 94. It indicates he will be a “useful” horse, picking up checks in lesser graded stakes, but unlikely to win a Grade I. He has four wins, with three of them coming in graded stakes. NOTE: The colt had tenderness in one of his feet Friday and was not able to train.

8) Dortmund – (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia) – It’s possible that an undefeated colt with wins in four graded stakes, including a romp in the Santa Anita Derby, may be overlooked somewhat because of the hype surrounding American Pharaoh. Weeks before the Derby, Daily Racing Form columnist Dick Jerardi picked this colt to win, just as he picked California Chrome well before last year’s event. But Pharaoh’s performance in Hot Springs has caused even him to take a step back. The son of Derby winner Big Brown broke his maiden comfortably (81) at Santa Anita and, then, in an interesting move, Baffert shipped him to Churchill where he again won with ease (97). Back in California, he had two tough races in the Grade I Los Alamitos Futurity (91) and the Grade III Robert B. Lewis (104), each time edging Firing Line by a head. He then won the San Felipe by 1 ¼ lengths (106) before wiring the field in the Santa Anita Derby (105) by 4 ¼ lengths, even though he lost a shoe at the start. He’s undefeated, has run three consecutive Beyers that put him near what the Derby will take, has only once been sent off higher than odds-on – and that was even money. More than likely, he will not be favored.

9) Bolo (Carla Gaines/Rafael Bejarano) – After two wins in three starts on grass last year, he switched to the dirt and ran a respectable third to Dortmund in the San Felipe, finishing only 1 ¾ lengths back (101). He was no match in the Santa Anita Derby, again finishing third (95), but 6 ½ back.

10) Firing Line (Simon Callaghan/Gary Stevens) – He is less than a length away from being undefeated in five career starts. Two of his three defeats came to Dortmund, losing by a head in both the Grade I Los Alamos Futurity and the Grade III Robert B. Lewis. He scored by 14 lengths in his last start in the Sunland Derby, earning a 97 Beyer in the process. His top fig is a 103 in the Robert B. Lewis.

11) Stanford (Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux) – SCRATCHED

12) International Star (Mike Maker/Miguel Mena) – SCRATCHED The New York-bred swept the Fair Grounds prep races, gradually increasing his Beyers (98, 93, 90). No one he beat in those races, however, is rated a serious contender (Keen Ice and War Story) – at least by me. His Louisiana Derby victory marked his fifth career win in nine starts, but the Derby will be his first foray into a Grade I on dirt.

13) Itsaknockout (Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez) – If it isn’t bad enough that it is no longer the Kentucky Derby, but the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands, this colt is a walking advertisement. He will be wearing a paddock blanket promoting the pay-per-view fight between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr. later in the evening, and jockey Saez will wear pants with Pacquiao on one leg and Mayweather on the other. It’s just what racing needs: a reminder that there was a time when racing and boxing were two of the nation’s most popular sports. The colt has only raced at Gulfstream Park, winning his first two starts (82, 74) and then moving up to first via a controversial disqualification of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth (88). In his most recent effort, he finished a distant fourth, by 21 lengths in Materiality’s Florida Derby (76). It was not the ideal prep race.

14) Keen Ice (Dale Romans/Kent Desormeaux) – His lone win came at Churchill in September in his second career start (69). He has only competed in graded stakes since then, running third in the Remsen (76) and the Risen Star (88). Most recently, he finished fourth, 6 ¾ lengths behind International Star in the Louisiana Derby (87). His winning would be a major upset.

15) Frosted (Kiaran McLaughlin/Joel Rosario) – Kiaran McLaughlin is a top trainer who can pop at a nice price. There was a lot of buzz surrounding this colt before the Fountain of Youth, but he then did not live up to expectations with a fourth-place finish (85), 4 ¾ lengths back. He made up for that with a nice effort in the Wood (103), winning by two for his second career win.

16) War Story (Tom Amoss/Joe Talamo) – The lone gelding in the field won his first two starts as a two-year old (86, 75), including a maiden win at Churchill. He has placed in three graded stakes this year, most recently third in the Louisiana Derby (91), 4 ½ lengths behind International Star. It is hard to make a case for him winning the Derby.

17) Mr. Z (Wayne Lukas/Ramon Vazquez) – He broke his maiden (62) in his first career start at Churchill Downs, and has gone on to lose 11 in a row, most recently finishing third by eight lengths in the Arkansas Derby (90). Ten of those 11 defeats came in graded stakes, where he has four seconds and two thirds. But his top Beyer is a 91 in the Los Alamitos Futurity when he was a head behind Dortmund. The coach is a major proponent of “you can’t win it if you’re not in it,” but picking him to win is a major stretch.

18) American Pharaoh (Bob Baffert/Victor Espinoza) – It will be interesting to see how high the hype on this guy grows as we get closer to the race. He has been compared to Seattle Slew and one long-time clocker was quoted as saying he was the best horse he had seen in 35 years. After an unimpressive first start (75) – fifth by 9 ¼ lengths – Baffert removed the blinkers and has now seen the colt run away in four consecutive races, including three Grade I’s. The son of Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, won the Del Mar Futurity (101) by 4 ¾ on a synthetic surface, the Santa Anita Front Runner (101) by 3 ¼, the Oaklawn Rebel (100) by 6 ¼, and his Arkansas Derby (105) tour de force by 8.

19) Upstart (Rick Violette Jr./Jose Ortiz) – He is one of the more intriguing horses in this year’s field. He has hit the board in all seven career starts with three wins and three seconds – the third coming in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (92). He won his first two starts (95, 85) in state-bred races at Saratoga, before running second in the Champagne (102). He opened his three-year old campaign with a 5 ½ length score in the Holy Bull (106) before being taken down in the Fountain of Youth after finishing 2 3/4 lengths in front of Itsaknockout. He ran into Materiality in the Florida Derby, finishing 1 ½ lengths back but getting the second highest Beyer (108) of this year’s crop.

20) Far Right (Ron Moquett/Mike Smith) – The tea will be flowing like bourbon if this ridgling wins, but that seems as likely as Ted Cruz being sworn in on January 20, 2017. He had won two stakes in a row, the ungraded Smarty Jones (89) and the Grade III Southwest (91) before meeting the buzz saw American Pharaoh in the Arkansas Derby, finishing second by 8 lengths. He did pick up his career best Beyer, a 92, but only finished ahead of a nondescript crew (including Mr. Z.)

21) Frammento (Nick Zito/Corey Nakatani) – He made it into the starting gate with the scratch of Stanford. Now the challenge is to figure out what his connections are thinking. His one career win (74) came at Keeneland in October. He added blinkers for the Fountain of Youth and ran decently – a third, 4 ½ back, earning his career best Beyer of 85. He regressed in the Blue Grass, getting an 83 in a fourth-place finish, 7 ¼ lengths behind Carpe Diem.

22) Tale of Verve (Dallas Stewart/Brian Hernandez, Jr.) – SCRATCHED

THE WEATHER

The weather is unlikely to be a factor with the National Weather Service predicting a sunny day in the 70’s.

ANALYSIS

When I first started writing this over 20 years ago, I had several absolute principles in picking the winner. I’m down to three. One – the need for a race at two – knocks out Materiality. Another is the need for a good race in the final Derby prep. It doesn’t have to be a win, but it does have to be a finish not more than four or five lengths behind the winner. The final one is competitive Beyer figures – if not triple digits, then the high 90’s.

The need for a good last race eliminates Bolo, Itsaknockout, Keen Ice, Mr. Z, and Frammento. The need for top Beyers eliminates Ocho Ocho Ocho, Danzig Moon, El Kabeir, Far Right, and War Story.

That leaves us with a mere 9. Seven of that group have run a triple-digit Beyer, with three of them having done it at least twice. I just cannot see Carpe Diem, Tencendur, Mubtaahij or International Star being good enough.

That leaves us with a quintet from which I think the winner will come…From a wagering perspective, it makes little sense to take 5-2 on American Pharaoh or 3-1 on Dortmund, although of the two I prefer the battle-tested Dortmund. Upstart has also demonstrated his grit and toughness, and at 15-1 he is a much more enticing wager. Frosted, also at 15-1, demonstrated his potential in the Wood and may have considerable upside.

But if you like Dortmund, you have to like Firing Line. He twice was a head away from knocking his rival from the ranks of the undefeated. He then romped in the Sunland Park Derby, an effort that could not have taken a lot out of him. He has also been one of the “buzz” horses at Churchill because of his physical appearance. And, the morning line is an acceptable 12-1. So that is who I am going with.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton, named after the first Triple Crown winner Sir Barton will not be matching last year’s performance when he came up with the enormous exacta of California Chrome and Commanding Curve. His standard for selecting normally entails getting on me while I work and purring loudly as I write about a particular horse. This year he did not do that until I said that I could see one of five winning. There was no differentiation in his reaction to any of them, so perhaps the super is coming from that group.

RIP Ben E. King

BELMONT STAKES 2014

First Edition

When: Saturday, June 7

Where: Elmont, New York

TV: NBC at about 4:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network at 2:30. The race is scheduled to go off at 6:52

If you have read or heard anything about this year’s Belmont Stakes, you know California Chrome will be running to become the 12^th Triple Crown winner in history, and is the 12^th to attempt the feat since it was last won by Affirmed in 1978. The 36-year drought easily surpasses the 25-year gap between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 1973.

Chrome is clearly the fastest and most accomplished three-year old this year. His ten opponents in Saturday’s race have won a combined one Grade I. Chrome has now won three in a row, part of a six-race winning streak. But there are plenty of good three-year olds who have failed in their attempt at the Triple Crown.

One of the biggest factors in why winning is so difficult is the track itself. The Belmont oval is 1 ½ miles long. By contrast, both Churchill Downs and Pimlico are only a mile. Jockeys talk about how you can get “lost” out there. It may sound improbable – and, of course, is not literally true – but the sweeping turn as you head into the stretch seems to go on forever. Richard Migliore was quoted in Bloodhorse.com: “The problem is you’re not three furlongs from home at that point. You’re probably four and a half furlongs from the wire. And once you give the horse that cue, you can’t take it back.”

There was an interesting piece by Jay Hovdey in the Racing Form on Chrome’s exercise rider Willie Delgado. The horse appears to be very intelligent. It took him a couple of days to adjust to the track at Churchill Downs, leading to negative reports on how the colt appeared. Delgado says, “It took us a good two days to figure out” Belmont. “Me especially. I was lost out there.” But the rider says that Chrome now knows where the poles are.

Of course, he will have a rider on his back for whom it is even more important to know where he is. Espinoza decided to stay in New York this week and get some experience on the oval. But he only rode one race on Wednesday and Thursday, and is only scheduled on one for Friday.

THE FIELD

1) Medal Count (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado Jr.) – When you are owned by Spendthrift Farm and your debut is a $30K maiden claiming race at Ellis Park, it is safe to say your connections were not saying beforehand, “If we don’t win the Derby, we’ll get the Belmont.” Correction: According to the Daily Racing Form, his first start was in a Maiden Special Weight, not in a claiming race. He has three wins in eight career starts, but one was on turf and the other two came off the turf. In his first two races carded for dirt he lost by a combined 26 lengths (84, 59), but then ran a troubled trip at Churchill, finishing a respectable eight, 7 ½ behind. He has been training spectacularly at Churchill since then, breezing bullets of 59.2 and 1:10.3 on May 31.

2) California Chrome – (Art Sherman/Victor Espinoza) – No one has been more impressive than this guy. He has won his last six starts and has yet to be challenged seriously. One of the biggest concerns going into the Derby was whether he would have bad luck or a horrendous trip. He had neither, and won quite comfortably. There has been some discussion about whether his winning Beyer of 97 – the lowest since Andy Beyer began computing them for the Derby and a full 10 points under Untapable’s 107 in the Kentucky Oaks the day before – indicates he is not that good. But his preceding two figs – 107 in the Santa Anita Derby and 108 in the San Felipe, means he has easily been the fastest horse in this field. His Preakness fig of 105 is in line with those two. His 12 starts are more than anyone in the field, with ten coming in California. On Saturday, he turned in a visually impressive breeze of 47.3 with a strong gallop-out. His trainer became the oldest to win the Derby at 77, surpassing Charlie Whittingham’s victory as a 76-year old with Ferdinand. The “feel good” narrative doesn’t stop there. His owners declined $6 million for a share of the colt before the Derby, and the winning jockey donates ten per cent of his earnings to fight cancer in children.

3) Matterhorn (Todd Pletcher/Joe Bravo) – He is one of two in here with only four career starts, finishing fourth by 6 ¼ lengths to the other one, Tonalist, in the sloppy Peter Pan (92). He has a single win, and there is little to suggest he can win this race.

4) Commanding Curve (Dallas Stewart/Shaun Bridgmohan) – I only know of two handicappers who liked this horse going into the Derby where he finished second (94). Pro football player Wes Welker cashed $14,000 worth of tickets, and passed out $100 bills to strangers as he left the track. This apparently caught the attention of Churchill Downs which then announced they had overpaid Welker and wanted their money back. The other was my cat Barton, who had the colt in his top three picks along with California Chrome. That exacta came back at $340, but all Barton got for it was some tuna fish. Unlike Welker, he did not want to share his largesse with his brother. As For Churchill, they engendered enough bad publicity before the Derby, so they should probably have just kept quiet. So the second finisher in the Derby must be a logical choice for the Belmont, right? Coincidentally, this trainer and jock partnered last year in bringing home another longshot to run second behind Orb. Here is where Golden Soul, who is on the undercard, has finished since: ninth (in the Belmont), seventh, eighth, ninth, fifth (losing by 24 lengths), and seventh. This ridgling’s only win and best finishes all came at Churchill Downs. He has shown a slowly increasing Beyer pattern, so maybe I should not be considering him the second-coming of Golden Soul.

5) Ride On Curlin (Billy Gowan/John Velazquez) – A trainer who has a mere 11 starts this year, with one win, puts Hall of Fame rider Johnny V on the colt, making him the fifth jockey in his last five starts. The lone win this year for the trainer came with this guy, who scored in a six-furlong Gulfstream allowance (74). That was followed by two third-place finishes, a 10-length defeat by Tapiture in the Southwest (80), but then missing by only a length to Hoppertunity in the Rebel (98). He moved up to a second in the Arkansas Derby (94), 4 ¾ lengths behind Danza. He had a difficult trip in the Derby (87), finishing seventh, 6 ¾ back. He was moving at the end of the Preakness (103), but never threatened the winner, finishing a good second, 1 ½ back.

6) Matuszak (Bill Mott/Mike Smith) – You cannot ignore these connections in a big race. That’s also the only reason to not immediately toss the horse. He broke his maiden (71) by a neck at Churchill in September and has been winless in his last seven starts, with his best finishes being a third in the non-graded Private Terms (83) at Laurel, and then a second in the non-graded Tesio (83) at Pimlico.

7) Samraat (Rick Violette/Jose Ortiz) – This colt is New York’s entry for the Belmont, with owner Leonard Riggio and trainer Violette being fixtures on the state’s racing scene, and the horse being the only NY-bred in the field. He began his career with five wins, including gutsy efforts in the Withers (94) and Gotham (96) on Aqueduct’s inner track. He then was bested by Wicked Strong in the Grade I Wood Memorial (89), finishing second by 3 ½. Those two came back in the Derby (89), finishing together, 5 ¾ back with Strong being credited for fourth and this guy fifth.

8) Commissioner (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – He broke his maiden at Saratoga (78) going 1 1/8 miles, so I guess Pletcher thought the colt could handle a distance of ground. His only subsequent win came in his next race (91), on January 3, at the same distance. His best performance in three Derby preps was a seven-length defeat in the Sunland Derby (90), finishing a well-beaten third to Chitu and Midnight Hawk. He hit his top Beyer of 96 in the sloppy Peter Pan, finishing second, four behind Tonalist.

9) Wicked Strong (Jimmy Jerkens/Rajiv Maragh) – He is being called the “Boston horse” because of his name and the fact that the office for the partnership that owns the horse is located there. He has two career wins from seven starts, including an impressive score in the Grade I Wood Memorial (104). He had a troubled trip in the Derby (89), but finished a decent fourth, 5 ¾ lengths back. He had a very impressive work at Belmont on Sunday, breezing a 59 flat bullet.

10) General a Rod (Mike Maker/Rosie Napravnik) – He is one of only three horses to run in each leg of this year’s Triple Crown. I did not like him in the Derby (85) or Preakness (92), and there is no reason to back him now. He has two career wins, breaking his maiden at Keeneland (65) when Napravnik last rode him, and in a non-graded stake at Gulfstream (92) on New Year’s Day. His owner for the two wins sold him immediately before the Derby without retaining a share, giving you an idea of what he thought the colt’s Derby prospects were.

11) Tonalist (Christophe Clement/Joel Rosario) – One of only three entrants with a win on Big Sandy, although his came on a surface better described as Big Sloppy. His four-length score in the Peter Pan (103), Belmont’s traditional prep for the Belmont Stakes, put him into the picture. He has only four career races under his girth (and only one since February 22), and projects to be seriously overbet given the Peter Pan. Nonetheless, I never ignore horses trained by Clement.

THE WEATHER

The weather is unlikely to be a factor with the National Weather Service predicting a sunny day in the low 80’s.

ANALYSIS

$29.60, $7.50, $51.50, $28.00, $25.80, $79.00. Those are the winning parimutuels for the last five runnings of this race, so a bomber has become the norm rather than the chalk.

Having said that, I do not like the chances of the following longshots (with their morning lines in parentheses): Matterhorn (30-1), Commanding Curve (15-1), Matuszak (30-1), Commissioner (20-1) and General a Rod (20-1).

I don’t think either Samraat (20-1) or Tonalist (8-1) will win, the former because he is not fast enough and the latter because of his light racing history. Either, however, can hit the board.

That leaves a foursome of Medal Count (20-1) California Chrome (3-5), Ride On Curlin (12-1) and Wicked Strong (6-1). I think Chrome is the most likely winner, but cannot put a win bet on an odds-on favorite. My longshot pick is Medal Count.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton missed picking the Preakness because we were apart for the week leading up to it, although he did watch the race intently. As I worked on this analysis, he only demonstrated interest – getting up on my lap and purring loudly – as I wrote about Commissioner. When I started writing about Matuszak, he suddenly stopped purring and got down.

****************************

BLUE RIBBON TRIPLE CROWN ANALYSIS

PREAKNESS STAKES 2014

Only Edition

When: Saturday, May 17Where: Baltimore, MarylandTV: NBC at about 6:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form (drf.com), and brisnet.com. The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

Even those who contested the Derby are mostly on the sidelines. Twenty-one horses were entered, nineteen ran, but only two of them are showing up at Pimlico to challenge Chrome. There is a filly entered, but not the star Untapable, but one whose chances of winning are only slightly better than mine.

THE FIELD

California Chrome – (Art Sherman/Victor Espinoza) – No one has been more impressive than this guy. He has won his last five starts and has yet to be challenged seriously. One of the biggest concerns going into the Derby was whether he would have bad luck or a horrendous trip. He had neither, and won quite comfortably. There has been some discussion about whether his winning Beyer of 97 – the lowest since Andy Beyer began computing them for the Derby and a full 10 points under Untapable’s 107 in the Kentucky Oaks the day before – indicates he is not that good. But his preceding two figs – 107 in tha Santa Anita Derby and 108 in the San Felipe, means he has easily been the fastest horse in this field. His 11 starts are more than anyone in the field, with ten coming in California. His trainer became the oldest to win the race at 77, surpassing Charlie Whittingham’s victory as a 76-year old with Ferdinand. The “feel good” narrative doesn’t stop there. His owners declined $6 million for a share of the colt before the Derby, and the winning jockey donates ten per cent of his earnings to fight cancer in children.

General a Rod (Mike Maker/Joel Rosario) – If you thought you had the Derby winner, would you sell him Derby week without keeping a piece of the ownership? Now that the colt is no longer owned by Armando Rodriguez, it will be even more important for commentators to say, “he’s not named after the baseball player,” an observation that is close to becoming part of his name. He spent the winter dueling with Wildcat Red in Florida, besting him in the Gulfstream Park Derby (92) before falling a head short in the Fountain of Youth (101). He was on the pace in the Florida Derby (96) before weakening and finishing third, 1 ½ behind Constitution and Wildcat Red.

Ride On Curlin (Billy Gowan/Joel Rosario) – A trainer who has a mere eight starts this year, with one win, replaces Hall of Fame rider Calvin Borel, making the fourth jockey the colt has had this year. At least his lone win came with this colt, who scored in a six-furlong Gulfstream allowance (74). That was followed by two third-place finishes, a 10-length defeat by Tapiture in the Southwest (80), but then missing by only a length to Hoppertunity in the Rebel (98). He moved up to a second in the Arkansas Derby (94), 4 ¾ lengths behind Danza.

Pablo Del Monte (Wesley Ward/Jeffrey Sanchez) – The colt loves Keeneland’s synthetic surface, twice winning impressively as a two-year old (90, no Beyer) and running 3^rd in the Blue Grass where he hit his Beyer top of 91. In two dirt starts at Gulfstream he didn’t embarrass himself, running 3 ½ lengths behind Wildcat Red and General a Rod in the Gulfstream Park Derby (85), and then 5 ¼ behind the former in the Hutcheson (84). Nothing suggests this guy will be the Derby winner.

Bayern (Bob Baffert/Rosie Napravnik) – The speedy colt was DQ’d in the one-mile Derby trial after drifting out and brushing his rival. He won his first two races impressively, then led in the Arkansas Derby before fading to third, 5 ¼ lengths behind the winner, but only a half-length behind Ride On Curlin. Given the way he has tired in his last two starts, I am not sure the 1 3/16 miles of the Preakness is what he wants. He is also getting his third blinker change in five starts (this time they are coming off), a sign that Baffert has yet to figure this guy out.

Dynamic Impact (Mark Casse/Miguel Mena) – He took five starts to break his maiden, and then won the Grade III Illinois Derby by a nose. Since that win came at odds of less than 10-1 after breaking his maiden by only a neck, it suggests we are not talking about a stellar group of three-year olds he beat.

Kid Cruz (Linda Rice/Julian Pimentel) – He is the only entrant to race at Pimlico, where he won the traditional Preakness prep, the ungraded Federico B. Tesio as the even-money favorite in a six-horse field. In November he was claimed from Bill Mott for $50,000, indicating that the Hall of Fame conditioner did not think he had a Classics winner on his hands. The colt also won the ungraded Private Terms at Laurel, and this will be his first try in a graded event.

Ria Antonia (Tom Amoss/Calvin Borel) – In a sport where there is no shortage of horse manure, excrement of the bovine variety is also in plentiful supply. It is, however, going to be difficult to top Amoss’ statement prior to deciding to run this filly in the Preakness: “I would not run a horse unless I thought we had a shot to win. People who know me and know my reputation, know that’s the way I operate.” Well I guess he is to be given some credit for providing cover to the filly’s owners, for whom Amoss will be their fourth trainer in her last seven starts. And technically, she is one of only ten with a shot to win. But here is her record. After winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on a DQ (81), she has not won in three starts, once losing by 14 (75) and, most recently, 15 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks (XX). Her Beyer top is 85 when finishing second as the even-money favorite in the Santa Anita Oaks. Admittedly the big losses were to Untapable, who just may be the best three-year old in the land, but she also finished behind other fillies. Nonetheless, I will always have a sweet spot for her after a win bet in the Breeders’ Cup that paid $66.60. It was particularly nice since my spouse had bad-mouthed the connections for even entering her in that race. (My wife, by the way, is solely responsible for our only tax ticket last year, picking all six winners on a joint pick 6 ticket.)

Ring Weekend (Graham Motion/Alan Garcia) – Another entrant who took five starts to break his maiden, and then went on to win a stakes, the Grade II Tampa Derby. That was followed, however, by a big fade in the Calder Derby, losing by nine after being up on the pace. While I have a lot of respect for the connections, it’s hard to make a case for this guy winning.

Social Inclusion (Manuel Azpurua/Luis Contreras) – I suspect this will be the wise-guy horse, although picking one that was heavily favored in its last race is not exactly cutting-edge. He was brilliant in his first two starts, winning by a combined 17 ½ lengths. He went to the Wood Memorial for his third career start and was favored over an undefeated colt, as well as the winner, Wicked Strong. After leading the entire way, he faded to third, 3 ½ back, behind the Derby’s fourth and fifth-paced horses. He obviously has a lot of talent, but will have to contest with other front-running competitors. His trainer, who refers to 77-year old Art Sherman as “Kid,” would be the oldest to ever win the Preakness at the age of 85.

THE WEATHER

The weather is unlikely to be a factor with the National Weather Service predicting a sunny day in the 70’s.

ANALYSIS

Chrome.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton is on holiday and will not be making a selection for this race. This is particularly disappointing since he picked the Derby exacta, which came back at $340. His third Derby selection, incidentally, was General a Rod, who is not named after the baseball player.

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BLUE RIBBON TRIPLE CROWN ANALYSIS

KENTUCKY DERBY 2014

Final Edition

When: Saturday, May 3Where: Louisville, KentuckyTV: NBC at about 6:30 with early coverage beginning on NBC Sports Network

“if you’re going to gamble on it,

you’re going to box a few horses” D. Wayne Lukas

The factual information contained herein is from a number of sources, including The Daily Racing Form (drf.com), BloodHorse.com, thoroughbreddailynews.com and links from the indispensable equidaily.com. The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted. Wicked Strong profile updated with underlined material on Saturday morning. Tapiture, who as I finalize this, is worth a wager at 38-1. There is the traditional sense of great anticipation as we approach the 11^th race on The First Saturday in May on the Churchill Downs card. This year, however, the race is only partially responsible. Most – if not all – of the racing industry is waiting to see what Joe Drape of The New York Times will be dropping in what is becoming his standard negative article about horse racing during Derby week. But the Derby is the Derby – it is truly America’s race. While I write about various racing issues on my blog, I am going to refrain this one time from describing some of the troubling things going on at Churchill Downs the company and save it for another time. This day is for excitement, mint juleps and the greatest two-minutes in sports. THE FIELD Here is the field in post-position order with trainers and jockeys. The numbers in parentheses are Beyer speed figures where the higher the figure the better. When there is more than one number in the parenthesis, the most recent comes first. 1) Vicar’s in Trouble (Mike Maker/Rosie Napravnik) – Rosie will be odds-on to win her second Kentucky Oaks – the only woman to win that race – and trying to become the first woman to win the Derby. After breaking his maiden by 13 in a state-bred event at the Fairgrounds (98), he won the LeComte by 6 ¾ (97), ran third in the Risen Star (87) where he broke from post 13, and then wired the Louisiana Derby (97). All three of the colt’s wins have come on the lead, which may not be the place to be in the Derby. He is also breaking from The Dreaded One Hole, meaning that he has to get out real fast in order to avoid being lost in crush of horses moving toward the rail. 2) Harry’s Holiday (Michael Maker/Corey Lanerie) – Keeneland probably did not use the photo-finish camera to decide whether his 28-length defeat in the Blue Grass (48) warranted a 13^th-place finish instead of the 14th of Vinceremos. Since his three efforts prior to that were all on synthetic surfaces where he hit the board in each of them (85, 66, 85), it’s hard to blame the track. In the four dirt track efforts beginning his career, he had two wins and a second (74, 73, 58). This is Lanerie’s first Derby mount after 3500 career wins. 3) Uncle Sigh (Gary Contessa/Irad Ortiz Jr.) – He is one of two New York-breds in a race that has seen only one win in its first 139. He had a nice run on Aqueduct’s inner, breaking his maiden by 14 ½ before running a close second to Samraat in two Grade III’s. He then showed little, however, when finishing fifth, 8 lengths behind Wood Memorial winner Wicked Strong. 4) Danza (Todd Pletcher/Joe Bravo) – His win in the Arkansas Derby (102) at 41-1 was easily the biggest upset of all the Derby preps. In three career starts prior, his top Beyer was the 81 achieved when he finished a half-length behind the winner in the Saratoga Special. His lone start after that was a 7 ½ length loss in an optional claimer at 7 furlongs at Gulfstream. 5) California Chrome – (Art Sherman/Victor Espinoza) – No one has been more impressive than this guy. He has won his last four starts by a combined 24 lengths, including a 5 ¼ length score in the Santa Anita Derby (107) that he made look like a jog in the park. Along with his San Felipe Beyer of 108, he owns the two best numbers in the field, and his Santa Anita Derby would have been considerably higher if he, you know, actually ran hard. He has more starts than anyone in the field, with all ten coming in California, with six of his first seven starts on synthetic surfaces. His trainer would become the oldest to win the race at 77, surpassing Charlie Whittingham’s victory as a 76-year old with Ferdinand. Sherman’s last trip to the Derby was in 1955 when he came as the exercise rider for Swaps. 6) Samraat (Rick Violette Jr./Jose Ortiz) – He went into the Wood Memorial five-for-five, winning on every available dirt surface in New York (except for the Finger Lakes) since Labor Day and was not even favored. While he earned his Beyer top of 98 in the Wood, he was no match for Wicked Strong, finishing 3 ½ in arrears. 7) We Miss Artie (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – Owner Ken Ramsey is racing’s equivalent of Secretary of State John Kerry, once dubbed “Liveshot” because of his seemingly innate ability to find the nearest video camera. That’s why this colt is here. His three career wins came on either turf or a synthetic surface, and in his last dirt effort, he finished 17 lengths out of it in the Fountain of Youth. He followed that with a win Turfway’s Spiral, ensuring him of sufficient points to get in the starting gate. If that’s not enough to inform your decision, trainer Pletcher was quoted after his last work saying, “I’m not sure at all if he should be running in the Derby.” That should get you to empty your wallet. 8) General a Rod (Mike Maker/Joel Rosario) – If you thought you had the Derby winner, would you sell him Derby week without keeping a piece of the ownership? Now that the colt is no longer owned by Armando Rodriguez, it will be even more important for commentators to say, “he’s not named after the baseball player,” an observation that was close to becoming part of his name. He spent the winter dueling with Wildcat Red in Florida, besting him in the Gulfstream Park Derby (92) before falling a head short in the Fountain of Youth (101). He was on the pace in the Florida Derby (96) before weakening and finishing third, 1 ½ behind Constitution and Wildcat Red. 9) Vinceremos (Todd Pletcher/Joe Rocco, Jr.) – Nothing says “peaking at the right time” more than a last-place finish in your final prep, finishing 28 lengths behind the winner. The good news is that was in the Blue Grass (48), on Keeneland’s synthetic, and not on dirt where he has a four-for-four record finishing in the exacta (90, 82, 73, 69). 10) Wildcat Red (Jose Garrofalo/Luis Saez) – He has compiled an impressive resumé at Gulfstream Park with four wins and three seconds, with two of the W’s coming in graded stakes this year (101, 96). He dueled through the stretch with Constitution in the Florida Derby, coming up short by a head (99). 11) Hoppertunity (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) – SCRATCHED Every year there is an entrant who will try to break a curse even longer than that of the Chicago Cubs (says the Red Sox fan, smugly). The last Derby winner who did not race at two was Apollo in 1882. This colt, however, has five races this year, including four at a mile or longer. He won Oaklawn’s Rebel (100) before running second in the Santa Anita Derby (98), 5 ¼ lengths in arrears to California Chrome. I think there is a good reason why horses unraced at two do not win on the First Saturday in May (at least going 1 ¼ miles). There is a saying among marathon runners – “you can’t fool the marathon.” You need a solid base to run that far and young horses need a solid foundation to cover those ten furlongs. 12) Dance With Fate (Peter Eurton/Corey Nakatani) – Five of his eight career starts, including his win in the Blue Grass Stakes (97) have been on synthetic surfaces. His two dirt starts were both in Grade I’s, finishing second in Santa Anita’s Front Runner (77) and eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (72), where he was 9 ¼ lengths back. While I am having a difficult time seeing him wearing roses, I do not think a spot in the super is out of the question. 13) Chitu (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia) – He is a lightly-raced but solid performer. He is a half-length away from being undefeated, having been bested by Candy Boy in the Robert B. Lewis. He rebounded from that effort in the Sunland Derby, drawing away to win by 2 ¼ with a career best Beyer of 102. 14) Medal Count (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado Jr.) – When you are owned by Spendthrift Farm and your debut is a $30K maiden claiming race at Ellis Park, it is safe to say your connections were not saying beforehand, “This is our Derby horse.” He has three wins in seven career starts, but one was on turf and the other two came off the turf. In his two races carded for dirt he lost by a combined 26 lengths (84, 59). It makes the decision to run in the Blue Grass (94) on a synthetic surface puzzling, unless the only purpose was to get points and into the Derby field, and not actually win it. He did, however, finish second in that event, 1 ¾ lengths behind. 15) Tapiture (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) – This guy was on the cusp of being a top choice for the Derby when he ran a dismal fourth, 7 ¼ back, at 2-1 in the Arkansas Derby (90). He already had three decent efforts at Churchill, including a 4 ¼ length win in their Grade II Jockey Club (83). He returned this year to win Oaklawn’s Southwest by 4 ¼ (98) before missing by a half-length in Hoppertunity’s Rebel (99). While his effort was puzzling – on a track where he had run well – he was coming from a barn that was undoubtedly in a high state of turmoil following the PETA video and Joe Drape article. 16) Intense Holiday (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – Every year there is a buzz horse who attracts considerable attention because of his appearance and the way he moves over the track. Last year it was Orb; another year it was Animal Kingdom. This year, it’s this colt by Harlan’s Holiday. He has two career wins in eight starts, one in the Risen Star (97). He then had a troubled trip in a second-place finish 3 ½ lengths behind Vicar’s in Trouble in the Louisiana Derby (91). 17) Commanding Curve (Dallas Stewart/Shaun Bridgmohan) – Along with Tapiture, he has the most experience racing on the Churchill strip with three two-turn races as a two-year old in Maiden Special Weights. This year he was sixth in the Risen Star (83) and third by 5 lengths in the Louisiana Derby, earning his top Beyer of 89. There is no reason to think he will be the Derby winner. 18) Candy Boy (John Sadler/Gary Stevens) – It took four starts for him to break his maiden, but he has since placed in three graded stakes, including a win in the Grade II Robert B. Lewis (96). He was sent off at 5-2 in the Santa Anita Derby (92), but finished 9 lengths behind California Chrome, barely holding on to the third-place finish he needed for sufficient points to get in the field. 19) Ride on Curlin (Billy Gowan/Calvin Borel) – Three-time Derby winner Calvin Bo-rail gets the mount for a trainer who has a mere seven starts this year. At least his lone win came with this colt, who scored in a six-furlong Gulfstream allowance (74). That was followed by two third-place finishes, a 10-length defeat by Tapiture in the Southwest (80), but then missing by only a length to Hoppertunity in the Rebel (98). He moved up to a second in the Arkansas Derby (94), 4 ¾ lengths behind Danza. 20) Wicked Strong (Jimmy Jerkens/Rajiv Maragh) – This colt suddenly burst on the scene with an impressive win in the Wood Memorial (104), pulling away to win by 3 ½ lengths. It was only his second career win, and followed unimpressive efforts this year at Gulfstream (87, 67). While it would be nice to see the son of Allen Jerkens win with his first Derby horse, concerns have been raised about both his lack of focus while training, and possible gate problems. Mike Welsch of The Daily Racing Form said that in his first two days at Churchill he seemed preoccupied with the new enormous score board, but improved noticeably as the week went on, so that Welsch concluded he is coming into the race the right way. If he was distracted by the scoreboard, however, how do you think he will handle the noise level at Churchill, both during the walk over from the barns beforehand and breaking right next to the grandstand? 21) Pablo Del Monte (Wesley Ward/J Sanchez) – SCRATCHED The colt loves Keeneland’s synthetic surface, twice winning impressively as a two-year old (90, no Beyer) and running 3^rd in the Blue Grass where he hit his Beyer top of 91. In two dirt starts at Gulfstream he didn’t embarrass himself, running 3 ½ lengths behind Wildcat Red and General a Rod in the Gulfstream Park Derby (85), and then 5 ¼ behind the former in the Hutcheson (84). Nothing suggests this guy will be the Derby winner. THE WEATHER The weather is unlikely to be a factor with the National Weather Service predicting a sunny day in the 70’s ANALYSIS When I first started writing this over 20 years ago, I had several absolute principles in picking the winner. I’m down to three. One – the need for a race at two – is not a factor this year with the scratch of Hoppertunity. Another is the need for a good race in the final Derby prep. It doesn’t have to be a win, but it does have to be a finish not more than four or five lengths behind the winner. The final one is competitive Beyer figures – if not triple digits, then the high 90’s. The need for a good last race eliminates Harry’s Holiday, Uncle Sigh, Vinceremos, Tapiture, and Candy Boy. The need for top Beyers eliminates We Miss Artie, Medal Count, Commanding Curve and Pablo Del Monte. That leaves us with a mere 11. I won’t go with Vicar’s in Trouble because of the post. Dance With Fate is out because of a campaign that does not look like prepping for a dirt race. We are down to a more manageable nine. Six have run triple-digit Beyers, with only California Chrome doing it twice (in his last two races). Samraat has put together four in the high 90’s, between 95 and 98. I think that is a level of consistency that is admirable and portends what is referred to as a “useful” horse, but I think the consistency may mean he has reached his limit on the Beyer scale. So I won’t be going with him. Wicked Strong is another home-town favorite because of the New York and Boston connections, but I am concerned that the Derby scene is going to take him out of his game, so he will not be my top pick. Chitu is a colt who is completely under the radar, partly because of a limited race record and partly because his big prep was the Sunland Derby (which, of course, did bring us bomber Mine That Bird). I just cannot see a horse sired by Henny Hughes, even if Mom is by A.P. Indy, winning the Derby. The duo of General a Rod – who is not named for the baseball player – and Wildcat Red are practically inseparable, which makes it hard for me to take a firm position picking one of them to win. That leaves a quartet of Danza, California Chrome, Intense Holiday and Ride On Curlin. Let’s face it, Chrome has been the most impressive three-year old who is not named Untapable. I cannot blame anyone who does not want to pick the favorite in a 20-horse field with a win wager, but he is an absolute must-use in any of the exotic wagers. Danza is suspect because of his dramatic improvement in going from a 77 Beyer to win the Arkansas Derby with a 102. But the same can be said for California Chrome,who went from an 88 to a 108 in winning the San Felipe – and then matched it in the Santa Anita Derby. Incidentally, the same knock can be applied to Wicked Strong, the probable second choice, who improved by 17 points in winning the Wood. That possibility for a dramatic improvement brings us to Intense Holiday and Ride On Curlin. Each ran a 97-98 in his penultimateprep before regressing a little when running second in the final prep. That is a pattern I think can produce a big jump forward in the Derby. So I think California Chrome is the likely winner, and if I was to limit myself to one longshot, it is Intense Holiday.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

This year, Barton got up on my neck, purring loudly, as I wrote about three entrants – California Chrome, Commanding Curves (for a cat, he is unusually fond of alliteration) and General a Rod. (Barton, named after the first Triple Crown winner, does not follow baseball.) © Tom Noonan 2014

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ANSWERS TO TRIVIA QUESTIONS

Day 15

The anniversary marks the first race held in Saratoga Springs. The track did not open until a year later.

Day 14

Invasor, 2006

Criminal Type, 1990

Lady’s Secret, 1986

Day 12

1) Jim Bond with Tizway (2011) and Will’s Way (1997)

2) Wayne Lukas with Criminal Type (1990) and Lady’s Secret (1986)

3) Shug McGaughey with Easy Goer (1989) and Personal Ensign (1988)

4) Todd Pletcher with Lawyer Ron (2007) and Left Bank (2002)

5) Nick Zito with Commentator (2008 and 2005)

Day 11

1) Asmussen/Napravnik 32%

2) Pletcher/Velazquez 30%

3) Rodriguez/Velasquez 25%

4) Rodriguez/Rosario 13%

5) Levine/Rosario 11%

Day 10

Two, one from post 10 (16 starts) and one from post 11 (12 starts).

Day 9

Rosie Napravnik at 24 per cent.

Day 8

1) Affirmed in 1978;

2) Conquistador Cielo in 1982;

3) Favorite Trick who was Horse of the Year as a two-year old in 1997.

Day 7

1) Chad Brown (24 for 66), who has horses entered in three turf races today, the 5th, 6th and 9th.

2) Al Stall (4 for 11), who has nothing in today but won the Quick Call Stakes on the grass yesterday.

Day 6

1) 16

2) One. Chad Brown with 29.

Day 5

One (from post 9).

Day 4

3) Javier Castellano, 199

4) Julien Leparoux, 128

5) Alan Garcia, 125

6) Rajiv Maragh, 107

7) Edgar Prado, 89

Day 3

1) Edgar Prado, admitted in 2008

2) John Velazquez, 2012

Day 2

Trainer and year of admission:

1) Allen Jerkens, 1975

2) Jonathan Sheppard, 1990

3) Bill Mott, 1998

4) Wayne Lukas, 1999

5) Shug McGaughey, 2004

6) Nick Zito, 2005

7) Bob Baffert, 2009

8) Janet Elliot, 2009

9) Roger Attfield, 2012

Day 1

1) Todd Pletcher, 144 wins

2) Chad Brown, 79

3) Linda Rice, 61

4) Steve Asmussen, 59

5) Hall-of-Famer Bill Mott, 59

BLUE RIBBON TRIPLE CROWN ANALYSIS

BELMONT STAKES 2013

First Edition

When: Saturday, June 8

Where: Elmont, New York

TV: NBC at about 6:30 with early coverage beginning at 3:00 on NBC Sorts Network

The factual information contained herein is from Daily Racing Form (drf.com). The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted. It may be all you need to know about the state of racing today to learn that The New York Post laid off its three racing writers on the day before one of New York’s biggest races. It was one thing when The Boston Globe stopped having a beat writer several years ago. But we are talking about one of the three most important horse racing states, New York City and the Post. The sun will rise today, however, even if it cannot be seen and the races will go on. In addition to the final jewel of the Triple Crown, Belmont Park will be running four other graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Manhattan and Grade 1 Just a Game, although it is not yet clear whether races scheduled for the turf will stay on. The feature includes Orb, the impressive winner of the Kentucky Derby, and Oxbow, the Preakness winner who cruised to an unchallenged and easy lead and was never threatened in his excursion to the wire. Each of these classic-winning colts has significant questions to answer, and we could be in for a highly entertaining edition of this year’s running.

THE FIELD

My single most important handicapping tool is the Beyer Speed Figures, published in the Daily Racing Form. It is a method for comparing races at different tracks so as to achieve some equivalence. If going with the top “fig” would lead you to the winner, it would be an easy game – although I have to say how remarkable it is that the best last race Beyer often does give us a decent-price mutual. Orb’s best Beyer was exceed by four others in the Derby, but his last two races – 97 and 97 – clearly put him in the hunt, and young horses are capable of big jumps forward. In the following, any number in parentheses is that race’s Beyer for that horse. 1) Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/Alan Garcia) – By all accounts, Ken McPeek will be sending this guy to the front, hoping, I guess, to replicate Oxbow’s wire-to-wire score. His only win, and top Beyer of 91, came when he sat off fractions of 24: and 49 1/5 to draw away to a 9-length win in November at Churchill. While his best efforts have been with that style, his second highest Beyer of 81 is not the profile one would expect from a classic winner. He was 16^th in the Derby (68), 24 lengths back. 2) Freedom Child (Tom Albertrani/Luis Saez) – He will garner a lot of attention at the windows because of his impressive score four weeks ago in the Peter Pan on a sloppy Belmont track where he won by 13 and his Beyer of 99 exceeded his prior top by 16. His two wins and one second came when he was able to get an early clear lead, a scenario I do not see unfolding here. 3) Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – The first of five (sic) Pletcher entries and the first of three (sic again) by Mike Repole has four wins in eight starts, but only one Beyer exceeding 88. That was his 99 in November’s Remsen at Aqueduct, where he beat the Derby’s fourth-place finisher Normandy Invasion. If his pattern of winning every other race holds true, he will be getting the carnations. He finished 11^th in the Derby (84), 13 lengths back. 4) Giant Finish (Anthony Dutrow/Edgar Prado) – He will need it if he is going to capture this event. He split the Derby field, 13 back with a Beyer of 85, and his two wins came in races restricted to New York-breds. 5) Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario) – While it took this colt four tries to break his maiden, he then won five in a row before running an uninspired 4^th in the Preakness (92), nine lengths behind the winner. His Beyer top of 104 came in the Derby, run on a sloppy Churchill strip. 6) Incognito (Kiaran McLaughlin/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) – He broke his maiden on Aqueduct’s inner in March, following that with a win on their main track in April, earning his third consecutive Beyer of 86. He went from there to the Peter Pan where he finished fifth, 16 lengths behind Freedom Child. As much as I like McLaughlin as a long-shot trainer, it’s difficult to come up with a reason for this guy winning. 7) Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens) – As one who has said too many times, the game appeared to have left The Coach behind. At this point last year, he had just broken a lengthy streak of no graded stakes wins, and now he has the record for most Triple Crown wins by a trainer. He also has what I think is a record that rivals the five consecutive Belmont wins of Woody Stephens. Lukas once won six consecutive Triple Crown races with four different horses. Lukas and his disciples are training no less than nine of today’s fourteen entrants. This colt’s Preakness win is not one of those “where did that come from” happenings. He was a solid graded stakes performer, and had one of the best Derbies for one who was up near the insane pace. His Preakness pace was the opposite of insane. As Gary Stevens strolled through the early going, he was thinking, “Are you kidding me?” It’s unlikely he’ll be thinking the same thing on Saturday. His Preakness Beyer of 106 is the field’s top. 8) Midnight Taboo (Todd Pletcher/Garrett Gomez) – You begin to appreciate how difficult it is for an owner to make a buck in this game when you learn of the outrage inflicted on owner Mike Repole by the lords of Churchill Downs at this year’s Derby. Churchill provides a complimentary six-seat box to owners on the third level of the club house. Repole, however, was seeking accommodations for forty of his closest friends and family in Churchill’s new area called “The Mansion,” where seats go for a mere $12,500. Churchill was not willing to accommodate him, however, causing the New York native to say, “They give you nothing. It’s really embarrassing. They are a public company and it’s all about the money.” Repole sold his company Vitaminwater to Coca-Cola for $4 billion in 2007, and now appears to be stretched a little thin. Perhaps it’s the desire for extra seats that caused him to enter this colt. This will be his fourth career start and first in stakes company. After breaking his maiden, he ran second in a first level allowance, earning his Beyer top of 85 on a sloppy Belmont surface. (The information about Mike’s not-so-excellent Derby experience is from Jerry Bossert’s piece in the New York Daily News.) 9) Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – The third-place finisher in the Derby skipped the Preakness to await this spot. After running third behind Orb and Freedom Child in a maiden event at Aqueduct in November, he won his next three, including the Withers (85) on the inner track and the Louisiana Derby (93) before coming up 3 ½ lengths short in the Derby (99). (When people complain about the quality of New York racing, I think of events like that maiden at Aqueduct two days after Thanksgiving – six grades stakes wins, and perhaps not done yet.) In his maiden win, he earned a Beyer of 102, a number exceeded only by the winners of the Derby and Preakness. 10) Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Mike Smith) – He joins Orb and Oxbow as the only entrants to run in each of the Triple Crown races. He finished a combined 28 lengths back in those affairs, finishing 8^th in the Derby (86) and 7^th in the Preakness (81). He did win the Grade 2 Rebel on March 16, beating stable mate Oxbow by a head, earning a 95 Beyer, his only fig to exceed 87. He also won Oaklawn’s ungraded Smarty Jones (87), but between those two wins he ran dismally on a sloppy track, finishing 6^th by 18 lengths in the Southwest. 11) Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Julien Leparoux) – Going into the Derby, this gelding was a length away from being undefeated with two graded stakes win on his jacket. He ran close to the pace in Louisville, but then faded waaay back. Prior to that race, his five Beyers were between 89 and 96. 12) Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith) – Adding blinkers to this colt for the Derby certainly sharpened his speed. When you’re cutting fractions of 45 1/5 and 1:09 4/5 in a 10-furlong race, you are motoring. Astute Preakness handicappers gave Oxbow a lot of credit for running near the hot pace and finishing only 9 ¾ lengths back. Well, meet the hot pace setter who finished less than 4 lengths back of the Preakness winner. He has only won once, his Beyer top is a 93 back in February, but he will be removing the shades. 13) Unlimited Budget (Todd Pletcher/Rosie Napravnik) – Do you think a filly being piloted by a woman will attract some attention at the betting windows? I suspect that is why only three entrants have a shorter price on the morning line – and one of them is not the Derby’s second place finisher. She won her first four starts, with her Beyers steadily increasing until she topped out with a 98 in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She was not even favored in the Kentucky Oaks where she ran third. I find this to be somewhat of a surprising spot, but I guess owner Repole needs those extra seats. 14) Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/Robby Albarado) – So if the morning line holds up, the Derby’s second-place horse will be a longer price than two horses he beat at Churchill and two others making their debut on the Triple Crown trail. It’s easy to dismiss his Derby finish where he hit 100 Beyer because of the sloppy track, particularly since that is his only fig exceeding 90, and he has a sole win to his credit. But horses at this young age can show dramatic improvement.

THE WEATHER

As of Saturday morning, the National Weather Service is predicting a “mostly cloudy” day. Track maintenance crews do an outstanding job of preparing the surface, and Belmont will undoubtedly be aided by Dr. Michael Peterson, the nation’s expert on track surfaces and moisture content. If there is no more rain, I do not think the track will be muddy or sloppy, but a lot of moisture was added yesterday and this morning from the sky, so it is difficult to know what the surface will be like.

ANALYSIS

I continue to think that Orb has the potential to be a special horse, although that does not mean he is on the verge of being one of racing’s all-time greats. It is just that he could dominate this group of three-year olds. His Preakness performance remains a mystery, particularly since he gave every indication of being ready for another big effort according to his trainer Shug McGaughey. I find it inconceivable that Oxbow will replicate his Preakness stroll by getting an early unchallenged lead. There is other speed in this field – including the Derby’s burner Palace Malice – so it is more likely he will be sitting back of the front-runners. While the Belmont has had its recent share of bombers – from 2008 through 2011, the lowest-price winner returned $25.80 – I do not see that happening this year. While I think Orb is the most likely winner, I do not think his odds offer appropriate value given his Preakness. I will go with Revolutionary, and also play exotics using Vyjack and Golden Soul along with the Derby and Preakness winners in the hope of getting some prices.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

BLUE RIBBON TRIPLE CROWN ANALYSIS

PREAKNESS STAKES 2013

First Edition

When: Saturday, May 18

Where: Baltimore, Maryland

TV: NBC at about 6:20 with early coverage on NBCSN

The factual information contained herein is from Daily Racing Form (drf.com), both the print and on-line editions, BloodHorse.com. The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted. Once again, we enter Pimlico’s Preakness Stakes with a possible Triple Crown on the line. Actually, that would be the case every year that the Kentucky Derby winner enters the second leg. But we have narrowed the universe of possible winners from the 30,000 or so foals born three years ago to the 20 who could have run in the Kentucky Derby to only one now. In my Blue Ribbon Derby Analysis, I posited that only two of this year’s Louisville entrants could be “special” – Orb and the colt who finished 14^th. Orb ran like he could be “The One,” although he benefitted from an insane early pace – 1:09 4/5 through six furlongs – that resulted in the colts who were 16^th, 15^th, 17^th and 18^th after a half-mile finishing 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd and 5^th. His winning Beyer of 104 does not recall Secretariat, but as they say, “I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you.” In the Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher ran 5 of the 19 horses who started, once again coming up empty unless you count a third-place finish. He has none of the Preakness starters. Pletcher learned under “The Coach,” Wayne Lukas, the trainer who began the trend of flooding the field with entrants. He will have fully one-third of the Preakness field coming from his barn. Let’s briefly recap some of the roses and thorns from the Derby. I think the television coverage by NBC and the NBCSportsNetwork was excellent for both Oaks Day and the Derby. Randy Moss, Laffit Pincay Jr. and Jerry Bailey provide a lot of useful insight to both the experienced fan and, I think, to those new to the sport. It’s a tough balance to achieve and I think they have done it. I was less enthralled by some aspects of the sport’s Bible, the Daily Racing Form. Unlike prior years, you could not get the Derby Past Performances in the Friday paper although, in candor, that may be an inconvenience only to those trying to write about it. More puzzling was the lack of important breeding information such as dosage profiles. That info is available elsewhere for free, but if you are paying $7.50 for the paper, why have to go elsewhere?

THE FIELD

My single most important handicapping tool is the Beyer Speed Figures, published in the Daily Racing Form. It is a method for comparing races at different tracks so as to achieve some equivalence. If going with the top “fig” would lead you to the winner, it would be an easy game – although I have to say how remarkable it is that the best last race Beyer often does give us a decent-price mutual. Orb’s best Beyer was exceed by four others in the Derby, but his last two races – 97 and 97 – clearly put him in the hunt, and young horses are capable of big jumps forward. In the following, any number in parentheses is that race’s Beyer for that horse. 1) Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario) – While it took this colt four tries to break his maiden, he hasn’t lost since, including wins in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby where he got matching 97 Beyers, and adding the Kentucky Derby for his 5^th in a row. He earned his career best Beyer of 104 in that event. In the Derby Blue Ribbon, we observed that no one was training or looking better at Churchill. How is he doing since? After a :47 breeze at Belmont, the understated McGaughey said the work gave him “chills,” and that the colt is getting better. 2) Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger) – He chased the torrid pace being set by Palace Malice and quickly fell out of contention, being eased at the finish, almost 50 lengths behind the winner. I suppose you could blame his inexperienced jockey, but what does that say of Mike Smith who was aboard the leader? This colt’s last winning Beyer of 105 is a tick better than Orb’s Derby one. The son of Into Mischief out of a Banker’s Gold mare won two of three starts at two, repeating those numbers this year before his dismal Derby. His loss as a juvenile was in the Grade 1 Champagne, finishing 2^nd, 5 back of Breeders’ Cup winner Shanghai Bobby. As a sophomore, he won the Sham with a fig of 98 before running 4^th, 2 lengths back in the San Felipe (90), and then the Santa Anita Derby. His Churchill run has been his only bad race. 3) Titletown Five (Wayne Lukas/Julian Leparoux) – I wonder how they came up with the name for this colt owned, in part, by Paul Hornung. The highpoint for this son of Tiznow came back in October when he broke his maiden by 9 lengths, earning a Beyer of 98. This came one start after finishing a length in front of Orb in one of those Saratoga maiden races where several runners turn out to be stakes horses. This guy has yet to actually win a stake, coming up short in an ungraded one at Oaklawn, finishing 9^th in the Louisiana Derby (79) and then 4^th in the Derby Trial (84). He appears to be overmatched in this event. 4) Departing (Al Stall, Jr./Brian Hernandez Jr.) – The connections of Blame, conqueror of Zenyatta, look to again break hearts by derailing a Triple Crown bid. This is a very interesting colt, winner of four of five starts with his only loss being a third in the Louisiana Derby (88), finishing behind the Kentucky Derby’s third- and fifth-place finishers. He followed that up with a comfortable win in the Illinois Derby (93). His Beyer top of 97 was three starts back in the ungraded Texas Heritage in Houston. 5) Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik) – He is the Derby’s top finisher behind Orb, finishing less than 4 lengths back in 5^th place, with a Beyer of 99. The grandson of Real Quiet has two wins from nine starts, breaking his maiden at Arlington in August and then a first level allowance at the Fair Grounds. In two starts at three, he finished 3 lengths behind in the Risen Star (Beyer of 88) before running 2nd (93) to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby. 6) Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens) – You have Hall of Fame connections in Lukas and Stevens teaming up for Calumet Farm. He had a pretty decent Derby, albeit finishing 6^th, 10 lengths back. He is one of the few to have run close to the blistering pace and not ending up in the rear. One of his two wins came at Churchill, and he ran a 95 Beyer in missing by a head in Oaklawn’s Rebel. He followed that up with a 5th, 5 lengths back in the Arkansas Derby, posting a Beyer of 80 7) Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Mike Smith) – This colt won the Grade 2 Rebel on March 16, beating stable mate Oxbow by a head, earning a 95 Beyer, his only fig to exceed 87. He also won Oaklawn’s ungraded Smarty Jones (87), but between those two wins he ran dismally on a sloppy track, finishing 6^th by 18 lengths in the Southwest. In the Derby he finished 8^th, 12 lengths behind. According to the Racing Form’s comment line, he had begun a 5-wide move but had to check at the 3/16 pole. He is picking up a Hall-of-Fame jockey to replace Jon Court. 8) Govenor Charlie (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia) – As we are well aware, Verrazano did not blemish the 131-year Kentucky Derby streak of no one winning that event without racing at two. I have not seen a similar statistic for this race, but I would think it should be a relevant factor. My theory is that the reason for the Derby record is that a young horse needs a lot of bottom – from training and racing at two – in order to handle going a mile and one-quarter on the First Saturday in May. So why would that rationale not also apply on the Third Saturday in May for a horse going a mile and three-sixteenths? This colt first raced on January 13, breaking his maiden a month later (94), and then winning the Sunland Derby on March 24 with a Beyer of 95. He was being pointed for the Derby, but foot issues and lackluster training caused him to be declared from that event. He has turned in three nice works since then (as do most Baffert horses), but one has to wonder how fit he is going to be for this race. 9) Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa, Jr./John Velazquez) – No entrant has more starts (11) or wins (5) than this son of Lawyer Ron, and he is the only one with two triple digit Beyers. His three wins at two included two ungraded stakes, one on a sloppy track at Calder. He won the ungraded Gulfstream Park Derby by 7 lengths, earning a 102 Beyer, and followed that up with a 2-length win in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, getting a 104 Beyer. As the favorite in the Florida Derby, he finished almost 3 in arrears to Orb, picking up a 93. In the Derby, he finished 15^th, 22 behind the winner. Since he had a win on a sloppy track and has a good pedigree for a wet track, it is hard to blame the surface at Churchill for his poor performance. He is, however, getting a significant jockey upgrade, going to a Hall-of-Famer from Elvis Trujillo.

THE WEATHER

As of Friday afternoon, the National Weather Service is predicting a 30% chance of showers after 2:00.

ANALYSIS

One of the historical trends in the Preakness is that horses exiting the Derby usually win. While there have been exceptions in recent years, it hardly ever is the out-of-the-clouds longshot that we often see winning the Derby. The new shooters in this event are Titletown Five, Departing and Govenor Charlie. While Departing is generating some buzz, he is the third choice on the Morning Line which I do not think represents value. Running well in one’s last Derby prep is a prerequisite for winning the Derby, but running well in the Derby is not a requirement for Preakness success. I think the Derby runner with the best chance of upsetting Orb is Goldencents. He was one of the most accomplished horses entering the Derby, and I doubt his lackluster run took much out of him. I think Mylute is the next best choice, and would pick Oxbow as the best possibility from the Lukas trio. The bottom line, however, is that I cannot go against Orb. I do not see a negative, and when the usually circumspect Shug McGaughey seems to have a difficult time controlling his enthusiasm, it is one more reason to go with the favorite.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

This is the 10^th anniversary of Barton picking longshot Funny Cide by repeatedly knocking our New York bred magnet off the refrigerator, behavior he has not replicated since that year’s Preakness. This year, he got up on my lap and then my shoulder only once, when I was writing about an “intriguing longshot possibility” in the Derby – Java’s War. For the Preakness, however, he has showed no interest, perhaps indicating that he can’t go with chalk. © Tom Noonan 2013

BLUE RIBBON TRIPLE CROWN ANALYSIS

KENTUCKY DERBY 2013

Final Edition

When: Saturday, May 4

Where: Louisville, Kentucky

TV: NBC at about 6:20 with early coverage on NBCSN

The factual information contained herein is from Daily Racing Form (drf.com), both the print and on-line editions, BloodHorse.com and the Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac. The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

We once again have a Kentucky Derby field that looks wide open. There isn’t the logical favorite and “big horse” we last saw in 2008 with Big Brown. When the winner finally emerges, however, he will suddenly take on a special aura, even if he later turns out to be disappointing. It’s kind of like selecting a Pope.

While there a two entrants who I think could truly be special, there are a lot more who, should they win, are more likely to be in the I’ll Have Another, Super Saver, Mine That Bird category of “not that special.” While the best horse often does win this race, luck plays a major role in the running of it. You just cannot have 19 horses break from a starting gate who immediately try to get closer to the rail without lots of shuffling and bumping. Then, add to that inevitable chaos the reality of young horses with considerable potential to improve significantly, sometimes on just the right day.

THE FIELD

1) Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo) – It’s interesting how all of the commentary at the post-position draw centers on who is going to end up in the Dreaded One Hole. (I’m surprised that Churchill hasn’t yet trademarked the phrase and sold it to a sponsor, much like Santa Anita’s Grey Goose Winner’s Circle.) So it may come as a surprise that no post has produced more than the 12 winners coming from the one hole. The last one, however, was Ferdinand in 1986. I suspect the reason it has become so despised is that in these days of 20 horse fields, the ones on the inside are going to be squeezed, and the horse breaking from the one has nowhere to go, except into the rail. If that isn’t enough bad karma for this guy, the only time he ran in a race carded for a dirt track, he lost by 19 lengths with a Beyer of 60. He did, however, win his preceding race on Aqueduct’s main track after it came off the turf with a 75. In his last two starts he won on the grass (81) and then the polytrack Spiral (90). It is very difficult to come up with a rationale for this guy winning. 2) Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens) – You have Hall of Fame connections in Lukas and Stevens teaming up for Calumet Farm. If resumes won races, this colt would warrant serious consideration. One of his two wins came at Churchill, and he ran a 95 Beyer in missing by a head in Oaklawn’s Rebel. He followed that up with a 5th, 5 lengths back in the Arkansas Derby, posting a Beyer of 80. It’s not the sort of performance that brings roses on the First Saturday in May. 3) Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel) – The Derby gods have smiled – once again – on Calvin Bo-rail. Not only did he avoid drawing the dreaded one-hole in the gate, but he only has to move over one path ~~two paths~~ to get to his beloved rail. I don’t think any other entrant benefited more from the post-position draw, and gives the War Pass colt from an A.P. Indy mare a major boost. He has won three consecutive races including the Grade 3 Withers (85) and the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby (93), each by a neck. His Beyer top of 102 came in his maiden win on the Aqueduct inner track. This is one of five Pletcher horses in the field, and you will hear much about how one of the game’s best conditioners is only 1-for-31 with his Derby starters. Of course, should he win this year, next year he will only be 2-for-36. 4) Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/Robby Albarado) – He was on no one’s Derby radar screen until early this week when it became clear that the field might not fill, and he had a few more points than another late entrant, Fear the Kitten. Now that he is in, he is still on no one’s radar screen. While he ran in the three preps at the Fair Grounds, his top Beyer was an 89 running 6th in the Risen Star, sandwiched by an 11-length loss (71) to Oxbow, and a 4th by 5 lengths (85) in the Louisiana Derby. 5) Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) – Brown is one of the best young trainers in the game, something we used to say about Todd Pletcher as he embarked on his record of one Derby win from 31 starters. The Tapit colt has had a solid record on Aqueduct’s main track, breaking his maiden by 9 lengths (Beyer of 82), a second by a nose in the Remsen (99), and another second by ¾ length (94) in the Wood Memorial. He did not hit the board in his two starts away from the Big A. 6) Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik) – The grandson of Real Quiet has two wins from nine starts, breaking his maiden at Arlington in August and then a first level allowance at the Fair Grounds. In two starts at three, he finished 3 lengths behind in the Risen Star (Beyer of 88) before running 2nd (93) to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby. 7) Giant Finish (Anthony Dutrow/Jose Espinoza) – This colt could be this year’s poster child for an owner’s Derby fever – not that there isn’t competition for that honor. He earned his top Beyer on dirt of 73 in his first start at Aqueduct in November, and then lost a state-bred stake by 14 with a Beyer of 50 in his next outing. While he ran a good 2^nd(84) on Turfway’s synthetic in the Battaglia, and then a good 3^rd (86) in that track’s Spiral to Black Onyx, there is no reason to see him as a factor this Saturday. 8) Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger) – Last year’s Derby-winning trainer returns again with the Santa Anita Derby winner ridden by an unknown (different) jockey. This colt’s last winning Beyer of 105 is eight points better than Orb’s last of 97, and ten points better than any other contestant’s last race. The son of Into Mischief out of a Banker’s Gold mare won two of three starts at two, repeating those numbers this year. His loss as a juvenile was in the Grade 1 Champagne, finishing 2^nd, five back of Breeders’ Cup winner Shanghai Bobby. As a sophomore, he won the Sham with a fig of 98 before running 4^th, 2 lengths back in the San Felipe (90), and then the Santa Anita Derby. He has yet to run a bad race. Jockey Krigger is shooting for his own bit of history. While black jockeys have won 15 Derbies, he would be the first since Jimmy Winkfield’s back-to-back wins in 1901 and 1902. 9) Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano) – Only one entrant (Itsmyluckyday) has more wins that this colt’s four. He broke his maiden in his first start at Saratoga, won Belmont’s Futurity, Aqueduct’s Remsen and then the Arkansas Derby, giving him one of the more impressive resumes in the field. His Arkansas Derby Beyer of 88 is remarkably low, and he has only surpassed that number once with a 99 in the Remsen. 10) Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith) – It’s hard to get overly excited about a horse whose only win in six starts came in Saratoga, and has broken 90 on the Beyer scale just once with a 93 three starts back. While he only lost the Blue Grass by a neck to Java’s War, I no longer consider the Blue Grass to be a major prep, and finishing a neck in front of Charming Kitten doesn’t exactly burnish one’s credentials. He will be adding blinkers for the Derby. 11) Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore) – He won Dubai’s UAE Derby and the winner’s share of the $2 million purse. If he hits the board, he will become the first to exit that race having done so. While his Racing Post Rating of 111 equates to a 99 Beyer in my calculation, he has never raced on dirt, and was quarantined at Churchill before being able to go to the track for the first time Friday, making it difficult to assess how he will handle the surface. There is simply no reason to recommend him, even if he has one of the world’s best trainers. 12) Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa, Jr./Elvis Trujillo) – No entrant has more starts (10) or wins (5) than this son of Lawyer Ron, and he is one of only two with two triple digit Beyers. His three wins at two included two ungraded stakes, one on a sloppy track at Calder. He won the ungraded Gulfstream Park Derby by 7 lengths, earning a 102 Beyer, and followed that up with a 2-length win in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, getting a 104 Beyer. As the favorite in the Florida Derby, he finished almost 3 in arrears to Orb, picking up a 93. If his morning line of 15-1 holds up, he could represent one of the best betting values in this year’s race. 13) Falling Sky (John Terranova II/Luis Saez) – This colt is mentioned in most Derby conversations as a significant factor because he figures to be part of the early speed in the race. He won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa by leading wire-to-wire, earning his top Beyer of 92. When he ran identical fractions in the Tampa Bay Derby, but this time had to go head-to-head with Verrazano, he lost by 7 lengths. In the slow Arkansas Derby, he again went to the front, this time fading to 4th, five in arrears to Overanalyze. While his dam’s sire is Derby-winner Sea Hero, and he figures in the pace scenario, I haven’t heard anyone suggest he will be around at the end. 14) Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – The only undefeated entrant is looking to break an historical streak that has survived since 1882. That was the last time an unraced two-year old won the Derby. It is a factor that I think has a great deal of validity because I think a horse needs some bottom in order to travel 1 ¼ miles on the First Saturday in May. Now if this colt had run December 31, he would satisfy the criterion; however, he didn’t make his first race until January 1. While I have always used the criterion in tossing promising horses in years gone by, I’m not using it for this guy for the one-day “delay.” He broke his maiden by 8 (93 Beyer), won a first level allowance by 16 (105), the Tampa Bay Derby by 3 (103), and gutted out the Wood Memorial by ¾ length (95). What I find more troublesome than his not racing at two is that he is a front-runner who will be confronting other early speed in Falling Sky, Goldencents, and possibly Oxbow who needs to use speed breaking from the one hole. 15) Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado) – We’ve talked about how far Edgar Prado has fallen from his one-time position as a top jockey, and his having to take this mount is proof positive. The only conceivable reason for this entry is to satisfy the apparently boundless ego of owner and breeder Ken Ramsey. The colt has never raced on dirt, and his highest career Beyer, is the 88 earned when he finished 3rd, only a half-length behind the winner of the Blue Grass. If you think that race is a serious prep, then this horse merits consideration. 16) Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario) – Shug must really hope he gets his first Derby winner so that he has a chance of no longer hearing how much better Easy Goer was than Sunday Silence, to whom he lost three times. While it took this colt four tries to break his maiden, he hasn’t lost since, including wins in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby where he got matching 97 Beyers. And, there is no one training or looking better at Churchill. 17) Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court) – Lukas owes me big time. I only had to say in last year’s Blue Ribbon that he had not won a graded stake in about two years, and that I considered any of his horses in such an event to be an automatic toss, for him to break the streak on Derby weekend. This colt won the Grade 2 Rebel on March 16, beating stable mate Oxbow by a head, earning a 95 Beyer. That Beyer, incidentally, has been exceeded by only two entrants in their last start. He also won Oaklawn’s ungraded Smarty Jones (87), but between those two wins he ran dismally on a sloppy track, finishing 6^th by 18 lengths in the Southwest. 18) Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/Victor Lebron) – When your two-year old breaks his maiden by 9 lengths going two turns at Churchill in November, earning a 91 Beyer, thoughts of the Derby start dancing in your head. When he can’t come closer than 10 points to that fig in four subsequent graded stakes, one might think the fever would cool somewhat. He hasn’t exactly embarrassed himself in the stakes competition, finishing 2nd (76) by a neck in Churchill’s Jockey Cup, and then second in the Arkansas Derby by 4 lengths (81). While I can’t see him winning, I would not be shocked by a superfecta finish in what would be a juicy mutual. 19) Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux) – This colt has yet to win on dirt, and two of his three wins have been on the weeds back in the summer. He did run a decent 2nd to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (Beyer of 96) before winning the Blue Grass on polytrack and achieving a Beyer of 89. While I think the Blue Grass form is of little significance in picking a Derby winner, this guy’s 96 Beyer at Tampa Bay makes him an intriguing longshot possibility. 20) Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez) – In addition to the gelding’s connections, the happiest person about this entry has got to be Doug O’Neill, because Rodriguez will draw most of the attention on the issue of drugs. The trainer’s recent suspension for a drug violation, and an ongoing investigation into another possible violation, resulted in his having to appear before the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission in order to get a license. The Commission granted an approval conditioned upon a surveillance camera being in the horse’s stall – as the trainer had offered. For a horse that is one length away from being undefeated, he isn’t getting much respect, being installed on the morning line at 15-1. He has two wins in graded stakes, the Jerome (90) and Gotham (93), both on Aqueduct’s inner track. His career best Beyer is a 96 in the slop on Aqueduct’s main track – his career low, interestingly, is an 89, also on the main. His only defeat came in the Wood, finishing 3^rd with a 93 behind Verrazano.

THE WEATHER

As of Saturday morning, the National Weather Service is predicting an 60% chance of “showers” on Saturday after 3:00. Horses with wet track experience include Revolutionary (win on a good track), Giant Finish (win on good, poor on sloppy), Palace Malice (2^nd on sloppy), Itsmyluckyday (win on sloppy), Falling Sky (win on good), Will Take Charge (poor on sloppy), Frac Daddy (2^nd on muddy), and Vyjack (win on sloppy). Every track is, of course different, and no one has run on a Churchill surface that was not fast. But Palace Malice, Itsmyluckyday, Frac Daddy and Vyjack would move up on a muddy or sloppy track. Giant Finish and Will Take Charge would be downgraded. Based on breeding alone and relying on Tomlinson numbers (which are limited in that they are based only on the immediate parents), Oxbow, Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, Overanalyze, Lines of Battle, Falling Sky, Verrazano, Charming Kitten, Orb, Will Take Charge and Java’s War move up.

ANALYSIS

I do not think there is a clear stand-out in this group, and would not be surprised if any of 10 horses would win. That said, let’s begin by eliminating those I cannot see wearing the roses – perhaps I should say I would be shocked by a win. That would be Golden Soul, Giant Finish, Falling Sky, Charming Kitten, and Frac Daddy. There is a second group on whom I cannot conceive of making a win wager, and that includes Oxbow, Normandy Invasion, Mylute, Overanalyze, Palace Malice, Lines of Battle, Will Take Charge and Vyjack. While I think Revolutionary could win, I think Calvin Borel’s presence makes this a colt who will be colossally overbet, so I will avoid him. That gets us down to a mere five. (Who said this was a tough game?) I will take a flyer on Itsmyluckyday and Java’s War because I think they represent real value. That gets us to the three morning line favorites. I think Verrazano and Goldencents have those front-running styles that will compromise both of their chances. But here is what I said about I’ll Have Another last year: “I am leery of a speed horse in a field with lots of speed being ridden by a jockey in his first Derby.” That does not apply, of course, to Verrazano’s pilot, the inestimable Johnny V. So that leaves Orb. As much as I hate picking the chalk, I have also said I will give extra consideration to the horse described as looking and training great by knowledgeable horse people. I also think he, along with Verrazano, has the potential to be that special horse we talked about earlier. For a different approach, based on names, check out Teresa Genaro’s Brooklyn Backstretch, an always interesting web site.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

This is the 10^th anniversary of Barton picking longshot Funny Cide by repeatedly knocking our New York-bred magnet off the refrigerator, behavior he has not replicated since that year’s Preakness. This year, he got up on my lap and then my shoulder only once, when I was writing about an “intriguing longshot possibility” – Java’s War. © Tom Noonan 2013

BLUE RIBBON TRIPLE CROWN ANALYSIS

BELMONT STAKES 2012

Early Edition

I’ll Have Another scratches!

When: Saturday, June 9 Where: Belmont Park, Elmont, New York TV: NBC at about 6:40 with early coverage beginning on NBCSN at 2:30

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form, both the print and on-line editions, The Blood Horse.com, The New York Times, and the Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac. The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted.

They think we’re all crooks. – Dale Romans, trainer of Dullahan, discussing the security procedures put in place for horses running in the Belmont Stakes

One thing is certain about this year’s Belmont: I’ll Have Another will be the twelfth one. That’s either the twelfth Triple Crown winner, or the twelfth consecutive horse to not win after taking the first two legs. So much for certainty in horse racing. Minutes after writing this I learned that I’ll Have Another would be scratched with what could be a career ending tendon injury. Even when a Triple Crown was on the line, there was no shortage of negativity surrounding this year’s edition. As we discussed in the Preakness Blue Ribbon, I’ll Have Another’s trainer Doug O’Neill has been the subject of countless news stories regarding past drug offenses as well as his recent suspension in California for a 2010 “milkshaking” of a horse. In today’s Thoroughbred Times, there was a chart of each Belmont trainer’s rate of serious racing injuries, with O’Neill heading up that list as well – and not in a good way. While these are all legitimate stories worthy of concern, there is no indication that I’ll Have Another ever received improper drugs or was milkshaked. That didn’t matter to New York’s Racing and Wagering Board which established unusual and severe restrictions on the horses and connections of those running in the Belmont Stakes. Each horse had to be moved to a security barn that was guarded, humans had to sign entry and exit logs, and everything (including buckets of ice) was subject to search. While the purported purpose of these restrictions was to ensure the integrity of this one race, the necessary implications were clear as trainer Romans so eloquently stated. Without these restrictions, the fan and bettor could not trust the results of any race. So don’t forget to make your plans for Saratoga! I have discussed the takeover of New York racing by the Cuomo administration in my blog. The most recent entry can be found here.

THE FIELD

1) Street Life (Chad Brown/Jose Lezcano) – With the likely fast pace in this race, this colt figures to be running at the end. He won twice on Aqueduct’s inner track before finishing 6^th, 7 lengths back in the Wood Memorial. He ran a good third in Belmont’s Peter Pan, earning his best Beyer of 93. Trainer Chad Brown is one of the best young trainers in the game, winning at a Pletcher-like percentage of 27. If you don’t want to go with one of the short-priced horses, this guy warrants a long look. 2) Unstoppable U (Ken McPeek/Junior Alvarado) – I guess this guy is in the field to soften up the other front runners for McPeek’s other entry Atigun. Why else would you enter a colt with two lifetime starts that has never gone beyond a mile? He did win both of those starts nicely, but with Beyers of 80 and 82, this is a pretty big jump. 3) Union Rags (Michael Matz/John Velazquez) – In the five races since his romp in the slop in the Saratoga Special, the colt has not surpassed his Beyer of 95 from that day. Indeed, his Beyers have been on a downward trend this year, going from another 95 in the Fountain of Youth to a 90 for his 7^th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. While he has perhaps been the most highly regarded member of this generation of three-year olds – he was the Derby favorite until just before post time – he simply has not lived up to his promise from his juvenile year. He figures to be a fairly low price (morning line of 6-1), but I don’t think it is warranted. 4) Atigun (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux) – He’s got a three-race winning streak if you don’t count the three graded stakes where he failed to hit the board, losing by a combined 26 lengths. His high point is finishing less than two lengths behind the well-regarded second-place Secret Circle in Bodemeister’s romp in the Arkansas Derby. Still, his Beyer top is an 89 in nine career starts and I do not see much of an upside here. 5) Dullahan (Dale Romans/Javier Castellano) – He is still looking for his first win on the dirt (and third overall), but his strong closing in the Kentucky Derby to finish third will attract a fair number of backers in this event. His two wins have been on Keeneland’s synthetic surface, including the Grade I Blue Grass where he earned a 98 Beyer. He matched that fig in the Derby. 6) Ravelo’s Boy (Manuel Azpurua/Alex Solis) – Thirteen career starts, two wins, Beyer top of 80. 7) Five Sixteen (Dominick Schettino/Rosie Napravnik) – Let’s see. You finally break your maiden in your fifth career start on Aqueduct’s inner track. You then take the next logical step by entering an allowance for non-winners of “one other than” where you finish fourth, 11 lengths behind the winner and two others, none of whom have come back to win a race. Next step? It’s gotta be the Belmont Stakes. In a field loaded with horses who would be better off in an allowance race, let alone a minor stakes, this one is the most puzzling. 8) Guyana Star Dweej (Doodnauth Shivmangal/Kent Desormeaux) – There’s a name that rolls off the tongue. He broke his maiden in his 8^th career start, earning his Beyer top of 84. In his next start he encountered Unstoppable U, finishing 6 lengths back. The positives? He only cost $5,500 as a yearling and earned twenty times that. A lot of horse people would take that return. 9) Paytner (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) – Apparently Baffert has no shortage of speed balls in his barn. Bodemeister is getting a well-deserved break so Baffert is coming to the Apple with this colt by Awesome Again out of a Cee’s Tizzy mare. In only his second career start, he finished a very decent 4^th in I’ll Have Another’s Santa Anita Derby, finishing less than 4 lengths back. He then ran second in a sloppy Derby Trial where he Beyered 100, and followed that up with a 5 length win in a Pimlico allowance, getting a 106 Beyer. If you are looking for an upset possibility, this could be the one. 10) Optimizer (Wayne Lukas/Corey Nakatani) – I knew if we kept on talking about Wayne Lukas’ streak of not winning a graded stakes since 2009 we would eventually put him over the line. He has now won two such events since our Blue Ribbon Preakness Analysis. Only one other member of the field has run in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, but this colt has been beaten a combined 27 lengths by him. In a field this bad, this guy could definitely get up for a piece. 11) I’ll Have Another (Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez) – SCRATCHED The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner is undefeated as a three-year old, undefeated on fast dirt tracks and undefeated going two turns. And, his two-turn fast track Beyers this year have been 109, 101, 95 and 96, with the highest number coming in the Preakness. 12) My Adonis (Kelly Breen/Ramon Dominguez) – H e was only a half-length away from winning on The First Saturday in May. Unfortunately, the almost win came in the $51,000 Canonero II at Pimlico, and not in the Kentucky Derby. His two career wins were in September and October, and his career best Beyer of 95 came on a sloppy track in January. He has yet to demonstrate that he can run with the best of his generation.

ANALYSIS

Five of the horses in the field last started in an allowance race, and two of those could not even win at that level. Only one member of the field has won a graded stake on the dirt, with Union Rags having three such victories, including the Champagne at Belmont. With the scratch of I’ll Have Another, I think there are only four possible winners. Here are the ones I would not bet with your money: Unstoppable U, Atigun, Ravelo’s Boy, Five Sixteen, Guyana Star Dweej, Optimizer and My Adonis. Of the remaining four, Union Rags and Dullahan are likely to be unacceptably short odds. While I would have had no hesitancy in picking I’ll Have Another to win because he has clearly been the best three-year old this year, Rags and Dullahan have yet to demonstrate they are in that league. I think it takes a very special horse to wire a 12 furlong race, and Paynter isn’t even the best speed horse in his barn. So I’ll go with Street Life. Tomorrow I could change my mind.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton, the handicapping cat, named after the first Triple Crown winner Sir Barton, has been absent the entire time I have been working on this. © T.E. Noonan 2012

PREAKNESS STAKES 2012

Late Edition

When: Saturday, May 19 Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, MY TV: NBC at about 6:18 with early coverage beginning on NBCSN at 2:30

After all the philosophical problems have been solved, nothing will have been accomplished, so we decided to get into horse racing. – J. Paul Reddam, owner of I’ll Have Another, after winning the Kentucky Derby, paraphrasing philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein

I am tempted to say that the Triple Crown races are the highpoint of any racing fan’s year. The reality, however, is that for serious fans the Breeders’ Cup is much more interesting, and the Dubai World Cup Day presents a truly international racing experience. For the casual fan or observer, though, this is the only racing they will watch. That is why, I suspect, that when the national media hooks on to a story – inevitably a negative one – it is rolled out at this time. So, we have had the first two chapters of a series by the New York Times on serious injuries to both jockeys and horses, and the role played by drugs administered to race horses. Joe Drape and Walt Bogdanich, two of the authors, were just on Terry Gross’ Fresh Air talking about these issues and I found myself saying, “Why do I like this sport?” Fortunately, in the last minute of the interview, Drape, the Times’ horse racing reporter, answered the question. It was not surprising, then, that the winning trainer of the Kentucky Derby has come under scrutiny for his record of drug violations. Doug O’Neill, a California-based trainer who had an engaging interview in the famed walk to the paddock before the Derby, has had more than a dozen violations over 14 years in 4 states. The article by Drape and Bogdanich also points out that O’Neill’s horses break down at twice the average of horses nationally. O’Neill acknowledged “running horses more often than I should, … [but has become] more patient and more cautious.” Among the interesting facts in the article is that only two trainers in the top 20 in earnings – Christophe Clement and Graham Motion – have never had a positive. This, of course, has been and will be a major story going into Saturday’s race – as it should be. Not to be outdone, however, are the politicians in New York who are already in peak form three weeks out from the Belmont Stakes. The controversy between the Cuomo Administration and the New York Racing Association is in high gear. I have devoted a lengthy blog to this subject that you can read here.

THE FIELD

1) Tiger Walk (Ignacio Correas IV/Ramon Dominguez) – He exits an undistinguished 4th place finish in the Wood Memorial, finishing less than two lengths behind Teeth of the Dog. While he hasn’t been embarrassed in the three graded stakes in which he has run, he also hasn’t been close to winning. Other than his maiden, his only other win came in an optional claiming race at Laurel. His Beyer top is the 90 from the Wood. 2) Teeth of the Dog (Michael Matz/Joe Bravo) – I guess the connections of this horse figured they had to go in the Preakness after the Derby success of the two colts who finished in front of him in the Wood Memorial. The winner, Gemologist, was the 3rd betting choice but finished 16th; place horse Alpha fared better, but was still 12th. This guy, a Bluegrass Cat colt out of a Deputy Minister mare, has had an increasing set of Beyer figures over a four-race career, culminating in a 93 in the Wood. While that last number puts him in the hunt with many of these, it would seem a lesser placing is the most he can hope for. 3) Pretension (Christopher Grove/Javier Santiago) – While Pimlico runs a Preakness prep the first Saturday in May, the real Preakness prep is the Kentucky Derby. This race had been known as the Federico Tesio but now it is the Canonero II, an ungraded event with a $75K purse that this year attracted six entrants. The winner, a Bluegrass Cat out of a Street Cry mare, had been dusted in his two previous starts by Done Talking, 14th in the Derby, and Hansen, 9th at Louisville. Prior to those two races, he won a $75K stake for New York-breds where he earned his Beyer top of 83, a number matched in the Canonero II. 4) Zetterholm (Richard Dutrow, Jr./Junior Alvarado) – Speaking of trainers with numerous drug violations in their jacket, this guy would be the leader in the clubhouse except for the fact they cannot get him off the course. New York suspended him for 10 years as a kind of lifetime achievement award – nearly 70 drug positives at 15 tracks in 9 states – but litigation keeps him in the barn. The colt (Silver Train out of a Lord At War mare) has won his last three starts, all in races restricted to New York-breds. With a Beyer top of 85, he seems a bit in over his head here. 5) Went The Day Well (Graham Motion/John Velazquez) – I am starting to think it is time to trim the 20-horse field for the Kentucky Derby. You can no longer handicap the Derby assuming that it will be run as any other race in America. The trouble lines from this year’s event encompass almost the entire field except for, notably, the winner and second-place horse. This guy was bumped at the start, raced seven-wide and after a mile was 14^th. He made up a lot of ground before finishing 4^th, 2 ½ lengths behind the winner and 3 ½ in front of the fifth-placed Creative Cause. He is quite obviously a horse in good form, winning the Vinery with a Beyer of 93, and then a 97 in the Derby after an excuse-filled trip. 6) Creative Cause (Mike Harrington/Joel Rosario) – The 5^th place finisher is another who had less than a dream trip in the Kentucky Derby. You don’t win many races going 8-wide. He lost the Santa Anita Derby to I’ll Have Another by a nose before finishing 3 back at Churchill Downs. He is one of the most accomplished runners of his class, running in eight straight Grade I’s or II’s with the Derby finish being the only one more than a length behind the winner. Despite the wide trip, his Derby Beyer of 97 is close to his career top of 102. 7) Bodemeister (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) – Not surprisingly, he is the morning line favorite. Had the Derby been the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles, he likely would have worn the roses. In this race, he faces a field bereft of quality speed. I know Andy Beyer would throw me off the bus for comparing actual times on different tracks, here are the six furlong splits for Bodemeister, Teeth of the Dog and Pretension, respectively, for the last races in which they lead at that point: 1:09 4/5, 1:13 4/5, and 1:14 2/5. I wish this guy were bypassing this race. He did not race at two, had a grueling Derby as well as a lights out final prep and, I think, could use a break. Baffert, however, has won more Preaknesses then I have, so I guess I’ll stop commenting on this point. 8) Daddy Nose Best (Steve Asmussen/Julian Leparoux) – He had to steady early and was bumped late en route to a 10^th place Derby finish. Leparoux, who has been aboard for this guy’s four wins, replaces Garrett Gomez. This is a fortuitous development for the jock since I got the distinct impression he was being blamed for the defeat of his Derby mount, Union Rags, by the usually even-keeled trainer Michael Matz. The colt last won the Sunland Derby with a career Beyer top of 100. 9) I’ll Have Another (Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez) – The Kentucky Derby winner is undefeated as a three-year old, undefeated on fast dirt tracks and undefeated going two turns. And, his two-turn fast track Beyers this year have been 101, 95 and 96, with the highest number coming in the Derby. What’s not to like, and why isn’t he the morning line fav? Well, the smart guys think Bodemeister had the more impressive Derby, and this guy did have the dream trip of all dream trips. His Beyers, while not near the number one would expect the Preakness winner to have, are as good as anyone else’s with the sole exception of the 108 in Bodemeister’s Arkansas Derby. As the joke goes, I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you. 10) Optimizer (Wayne Lukas/Corey Nakatani) – Trainer Lukas kept his graded stakes winless streak alive after this colt ran 11^th in the Derby. The streak began in 2009 and spans over 100 races. In the Derby analysis I said I viewed one of the most successful Triple Crown trainers ever as now an automatic throw-out when it came to any graded stake, let alone one of the classics. I am not changing my mind here. Lukas did, however, make some news as reported by AP at Kentucky.com. He criticized some recent trainers of Derby winners for “not carrying the banner.” I knew this could not have been a reference to the use of drugs since Lukas is rumored to have put a healthy dose of steroids in the “hay, oats and water” formula. Yet it was. He specifically mentioned both O’Neill and Richard Dutrow. More interesting, however, he is upset that Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, was escorted from a casino after urinating on a slot machine. It must have been an effort to cool down one of those hot ones that slot players think exist. 11) Cozzetti (Dale Romans/Jose Lezcano) – If your claim to fame is a 4th place finish in the Arkansas Derby losing by 10 lengths to Bodemeister, I am not sure the Preakness should be your next stop. While he was only a neck away from a second-place finish, Sabercat, the show horse, ran 15th in Kentucky. Although he did hit his Beyer top of 92 in the Oaklawn feature, he has a single win to his credit. I cannot see him making an impact here.

ANALYSIS

In the Blue Ribbon Derby Analysis we thought it was one of the most competitive fields in years with any one of 13 horses having a legitimate chance to win, while positing that if there were a super horse in the field, its name would be Bodemeister. I don’t think anything has changed since the race was run. As Bodemeister was carving out some of the fastest fractions in Derby history, I was convinced he would not be around at the end. When he opened up a three-length lead at the top of the stretch, my thinking changed to “this could be one of the greatest Derby wins ever.” Alas, it wasn’t to be as the enervating early pace caught up to him. The crazy thing is, he didn’t have to go that fast. Only Trinniberg was near him early on, and absolutely no one thought he was going to steal the race. Bodemeister figures to be the lone quality speed horse in the Preakness field, and there is no more dangerous commodity in horse racing than a fast horse loose on the lead. Yet I remain unconvinced that his lack of racing as a two-year old, and a fairly rigorous (by today’s standards) schedule of 5 races as a three-year old, will not take its toll. The Preakness winner, however, is almost certainly coming from one of the horses who ran in the Derby, although I do not consider Optimizer to be in that mix. From the group of I’ll Have Another, Bodemeister, Went the Day Well and Creative Cause we have four of the top five Derby finishers, who were separated by a total of only three lengths, and the winners of a combined eight graded stakes. Daddy Nose Best, the Derby’s 10^th place horse adds two more graded stakes wins to that total. Four of the five have run a triple digit Beyer, with Went the Day Well coming close with his Derby 97. I think this group makes for, once again, a very competitive field. If the morning lines hold up, I find it difficult to wager on the 9-5 Bodemeister or the 5-2 I’ll Have Another. Value can be found in the 6-1 Went the Day Well and Creative Cause, in addition to the 12-1 Daddy Nose Best. If I have to pick one, I’ll go with Creative Cause. Tomorrow I could change my mind.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton, the handicapping cat has been absent the entire time I have been working on this, relaxing with his brother Fager. Perhaps he is one of the wise guys who thinks Bodemeister, his Derby pick, was the real winner. As we pointed out in the Derby analysis, Barton is the namesake of the first Triple Crown winner Sir Barton, who stood at stud on the farm where Bodemeister was foaled and raised. © T.E. Noonan 2012

KENTUCKY DERBY 2012

Early Edition

When: Saturday, May 5 Where: Louisville, Kentucky TV: NBC at about 6:20 p.m.

The factual information contained herein is from The Daily Racing Form, both the print and on-line editions, The Blood Horse.com and the Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac. The analysis, including even that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless otherwise noted. This year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby is one of the most intriguing in years. Each year presents its unique challenges, but I find this one close to impossible to handicap. At 6:30 p.m. on The First Saturday in May, we could be saying either: (a) Is this at long last a superhorse?; (b) Where did he come from?; or, (c) Both. The most likely nominee for Superhorse status is the colt named after Bob Baffert’s son, Bodemeister (that’s the horse’s name, not the kid’s). But in an age where the Derby winner is often the one stepping up at just the right time, there are any number who could wear that moniker, at least for two weeks. One of the big questions facing this running is the factor speed will play. There seems little doubt that Trinniberg will be in front early, but I have seen no one who thinks he will be anywhere near the front at about the 2 minute point of the race. But what about the other early speed? Will Bodemeister, Hansen and/or I’ll Have Another have their chances compromised, leading to a result akin to what produced longshots Monarchos in 2001 or Giacomo in 2005.

THE FIELD

As prior readers know, I place a great deal of stock in Beyer speed figures. These are numbers derived by Andy Beyers’ peeps and attempts to permit meaningful comparisons among horses that may have raced over different tracks at different times. 1) Daddy Long Legs (Aidan O’Brien/Colm O’Donoghue) — A horse from the UAE Derby will win the Kentucky Derby one of these years, and I had assumed it would be one from Sheik Mohammed’s Godolphin stable, particularly since the Sheik is committed to winning America’s premier race. While he has Alpha in this year’s race, that colt has done all his racing on this side of the Atlantic. It would thus be ironic if the first Derby winner from Dubai is the one trained by Ireland’s own Aidan O’Brien and ridden by a lad named O’Donoghue. There is much to recommend this colt by Scat Daddy from a Meadowlake mare. He is trained by one of the best in the world; O’Brien’s Master of Hounds finished fifth in last year’s race. This guy has one of the highest speed ratings in the field with his Dubai Racing Post Rating of 117 equating to a 105 Beyer by my calculation, and that earned going 1 3/16 miles. On the down side, his only race on dirt was in the Juvenile where he finished a distant 12^th in the 13-horse field. O’Brien discounts that effort because of a bad start. The Meydan race is his only one since that effort, but I think the European trainers are adept at getting a horse ready off such a light race schedule. The biggest drawback is the post. It is a universally-held belief among trainers that the one-hole means certain defeat. 2) Optimizer (Wayne Lukas/Jon Court) – One of the most impressive statistics for a trainer in the Triple Crown, right up there with five consecutive Belmont wins by Woody Stephens, is Wayne Lukas’ six straight in Triple Crown races — and he did it with four different horses. If he wins this year, however, it will be his first graded stakes win since 2009. As of April 12, according to The New York Times, his losing streak in such races is 109. In what would have been inconceivable not that long ago, I consider him an automatic throw-out in a stakes event. This colt, by English Channel from an A.P. Indy mare, hasn’t won since his first start on the weeds at Saratoga. His only placing on the dirt was a good second in The Rebel, ½ length behind Secret Circle, where he earned his career best Beyer of 91, at odds of 28-1. He followed up that effort with a distant 9th in the Arkansas Derby, 20 lengths behind Bodemeister. 3) Take Charge Indy (Pat Byrne/Calvin Borel) – While drawing the first post may mean a certain loss, how do you feel about Calvin Bo-rail breaking from the 3? He is on board the Florida Derby winner, a colt by A.P. Indy out of a Dehere mare, who prevailed over the heavily favored Union Rags. His winning Beyer of 95 was a click below his career best of 96. He has run at Churchill, finishing 5^th in the Juvenile. Borel is seeking his fourth winner, which would tie him with Bill Shoemaker, one shy of Eddie Arcaro’s five. 4) Union Rags (Michael Matz/Julien Leparoux) – This guy became a leading Derby contender when he won Belmont’s Champagne by 5 lengths back in October, giving him an undefeated record in three races. After a wide trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as the even money favorite, he missed beating Hansen by a head. He returned as a three-year old with a convincing romp in the Fountain of Youth, but disappointed with another difficult trip (or ride) in the Florida Derby. He has returned to Churchill looking outstanding and training to match his appearance. He has been installed as the second choice by morning line odds maker Mike Battaglia at 9-2. The big question about him is whether he has the ability to move forward, which he must do to win this race. He ran his career top Beyer figure of 95 at Saratoga on August 15. That’s an impressive fig for a juvenile, but not for a three-year old. He matched that number in the Fountain of Youth, but the concern is that’s his top. The colt is by Dixie Union from a Gone West mare. 5) Dullahan (Dale Romans/Kent Desormeaux) – He is one of the “now” horses following his closing kick to nip Hansen at the wire in the Blue Grass Stakes. That gave him a perfect 2-for-2 on Keeneland’s polytrack, but a 0-for-6 elsewhere. His Blue Grass Beyer of 98 topped his previous highs of 86 on the grass and an 85 running 4^th in the Juvenile at Churchill Downs. As I have noted in the past, I think the Blue Grass is losing its status as a major prep because it does not seem that horses can transfer good Lexington form to the track down the road. The colt is by Even the Score from a Smart Strike mare, and is a half-brother to Mine That Bird. 6) Bodemeister (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith) – If you hear or read anything about this guy between now and 6:30 on Saturday, you will know one of two things: (1) he has been the most impressive and talented member of this crop; and, (2) no horse has won the Derby without racing at two since Apollo in 1882. I don’t know how horse owners could have been so prescient 130 years ago to name a horse after a space craft, but they must have known they had a good one. The colt, by Empire Maker from a Storm Cat mare, won his second career start by 9 lengths prior to running second to Creative Cause, as the favorite in the Grade II San Felipe. He followed that up with a devastating 9 ½ lengths win in the Arkansas Derby, earning his third consecutive triple digit Beyer with a 108. Since arriving at Churchill Downs, he has made a striking appearance, in addition to having an outstanding work over the track. What about that 1882 thing? Not that long ago, there were a number of historical patterns that could be used to eliminate a large number of any field from contention. Those have been falling by the wayside in recent years, but this one has been the most durable for what, in my opinion is a good reason. A three-year old being asked to go a mile and one-quarter on the First Saturday in May must have a solid base. Racing at two certainly builds that since the animal had to get in sufficient condition to race at a young age. But there is a reason to think this guy may have overcome that shortcoming. According to Steve Haskin writing in Blood-Horse.com, the Baffert trainee had 30 works before his first start. That is a lot of conditioning. 7) Rousing Sermon (Jerry Hollendorfer/Jose Lezcano) – His only wins came as a two-year old in races restricted to California-breds, and his top dirt Beyer is 88 (his overall high is 91 on synthetic). What’s not to like? In his last start in the Louisiana Derby, he ran third (87) to 109-1?? shot Hero of Order. He is, however, getting some buzz over his appearance and training at Churchill, often a significant sign. 8) Creative Cause (Mike Harrington/Joel Rosario) – After breaking his maiden with a 98 Beyer in July, this colt (Giant’s Causeway from Siberian Summer mare) ran in seven consecutive Grade I’s or Grade II’s, winning three of them and never failing to hit the board. Despite that impressive resume, perhaps the most impressive of any entrant, he only matched or exceeded that opening Beyer once, a 102 in the San Felipe where he beat Bodemeister. Most recently, he lost by a nose to I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby. He raised some concerns with taking two days off this week to just walk the shed row instead of going to the track. It was reported that he lost a shoe on the flight from California, but that would not seem be the sort of thing that would seem to necessitate a break. His trainer has stated, however, that the two days of walking is the normal practice after one of his charges works. Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form, who reports on works and general appearance wrote that he is getting mixed signals from the colt. This is 71-year old trainer Mike Harrington’s first Derby horse. 9) Trinniberg (Bisnath Parboo/Willie Martinez) – The entry of this colt, by Teuflesberg from a Goldminers Gold mare, was quite a surprise. In seven career starts he has never been beyond 7 furlongs, and will now be asked to tackle 10 against the best horses of his generation. When he ran in the Breeders’ Cup, it was, significantly in the Juvenile Sprint, not the 1 1/16 mile Juvenile. He is definitely fast, having easily won this year’s Swale (99) and Bay Shore (94) on the front end. Those who wager on him will have about 80 seconds of excitement before he gets swallowed by the field. 10) Daddy Nose Best (Steve Asmussen/Garrett Gomez) – Every year there is a “wise guy” or “steam” horse, an entrant who is not among the top betting choices but whom all the smart guys think will win at a good price. This colt, by Scat Daddy out of a Thunder Gulch mare, is the 2012 nominee. I have a hard time believing he will be anywhere near the morning line of 15-1 and is much more likely to go off at 10-1. He is the most heavily raced of the field, with eight of his ten starts coming as a two-year old. Six of those races last year were on grass, including a 6^th place finish by 3 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He has won both starts this year in the El Camino Real Derby (93) on Golden Gate’s polytrack and the Sunland Park Derby where he earned a Beyer of 100. 11) Alpha (Kiaran McLaughlin/Rajiv Maragh) – Kiaran McLaughlin is one of those trainers who moves a horse up in my estimation because of his ability to win races at big prices. This colt, sired by Bernardini out of a Nijinsky II mare and owned by Godolphin, would normally rate a long look in a race such as this. He has, however, been suffering from a leg infection that has caused him to miss a work and, as it turns out, he will not work over the Churchill surface. He ran a very game second to Gemologist in the Wood Memorial, earning a career Beyer top of 98, but his physical issue is a major red flag. At two, he broke his maiden by 6 at the Spa, ran second to Union Rags in the Champagne and was not a factor in the Juvenile. He was 2-for-2 at three before the Wood. 12) Prospective (Mark Casse/Luis Contreras) – He has four wins from eight starts, including two graded stakes (Tampa Bay Derby and Woodbine’s Grey Cup), but there is nothing that gets the pulse racing about him. The Malibu Moon colt from an Awesome Again mare has a Beyer top of 90, and most recently finished sixth (87) in the Blue Grass Stakes, 6 ½ behind the winner. 13) Went the Day Well (Graham Motion/John Velazquez) – From the connections that brought us Animal Kingdom last year, we have this year’s winner of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. The colt, by Proud Citizen from a Tiznow mare began his career racing on grass in England where he had two seconds in as many starts. He came to the States for his sophomore season where he needed two more starts to break his maiden on Gulfstream’s dirt, running Beyers of 80 and 76. He picked up his second win on Turfway’s synthetic surface, receiving a 92 Beyer in his final prep. Even though he is coming off two wins, trainer Motion persuaded Kentucky officials to allow him to add blinkers, resulting in what Motion called “his best work ever.” 14) Hansen (Mike Maker/Ramon Dominguez) – Every year we have the traditional “feel good” story, usually involving an elderly trainer, owner, or disabled child. Just as traditionally, however, we have the “why can’t they just shut up and go away?” story. The con artists who brought us Big Brown are typical of the latter category, and the owner of this colt is in that mold. His name is Hansen — guess where the horse’s name came from. In addition to the cringe-inducing egotism, the owner Hansen has been trying unsuccessfully to dye part of the horse Hansen’s hair blue to match the stable colors. At least when he succeeded, temporarily, in achieving this questionable goal by dyeing the colt’s tail before the Blue Grass Stakes, he had at least made a correct match between his personality and the horse’s anatomy. The colt, however, is a good one, sired by Tapit from a Sir Cat mare. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in which he topped no less than eight Derby entrants. This followed winning his first two starts by a combined 25 ½ lengths, including a win over Turfway’s synthetic surface before the winning effort at CD. It is a move he is hoping to replicate with his last start coming in Keeneland’s poly Blue Grass. While he lost that one to Dullahan, losing your final prep in a good effort means nothing when the band finishes playing My Old Kentucky Home. Two of the biggest concerns about him are that he is another front-running horse in a field with quality speed, as well as the fact that he has a number of Beyers in the 95 range, leading one to wonder if that is his peak. 15) Gemologist (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – An undefeated three-year old showing up at Churchill Downs would usually be the talk of the back stretch. This colt (Tiznow out of Mr. Prospector mare) is only the third choice in the morning line at 6-1, even with the perfect slate and the trainer and jockey who each lead their peers in money won this year. His Beyers have increased with every start, topping out at 98 in the Wood. He also has two wins over the Churchill surface, including one in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club. He is one who appears to have considerable upside potential. 16) El Padrino (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano) – This guy entered the starting gate for the Florida Derby carrying a ton of hype. He won his first start at three earning a 100 Beyer and defeating Take Charge Indy in an optional claiming event. He came back in the Fair Grounds’ Risen Star, beating the well-regarded Mark Valeski and earning a 98 Beyer. He was a short price (5-2) in the Gulfstream race, but finished 4^th, albeit by only 3 lengths, behind Take Charge Indy. Because he did not have an excuse like the third-place finisher Union Rags, he is being dismissed at a morning line of 20-1 while the Rags projects to be 9-2. The colt, who is by Pulpit out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, also has lost both of his prior riders (Velazquez and Castellano) to other entrants, but picking up Bejarano is not too shabby. 17) Done Talking (Hamilton Smith/Sheldon Russell) – If War Emblem had not won in 2002, we would not consider the Illinois Derby a prep race. (Of course, if Mine That Bird had not won, the same could be said of the Sunland Derby although a major contender has emerged from this year’s race.) Prior to hitting his Beyer top of 85 at Hawthorne’s main event, the colt by Broken Vow from a Dixieland Band mare had topped out at 78 finishing a decent 4th in Aqueduct’s Remsen in November. In his only other start this year, he finished 21 lengths behind Hansen in the Gotham. There is simply nothing to suggest that this guy will be a factor, which is unfortunate since it is his 67-year old trainer’s first Derby horse. 18) Sabercat (Steve Asmussen/Corey Nakatani) – It is difficult to think that a loss by almost 10 lengths would cause you to believe that you have a Derby horse, but his third-place finish in Bodemeister’s Arkansas Derby has to be the only reason he is here. While he won a minor stake at Monmouth, and then the Grade III Delta Jackpot as a juvenile, his two starts at three have resulted in finishing a combined 15 lengths behind the winner. The Beyer top for this Bluegrass Cat colt from a Forty Niner mare is 92. 19) I’ll Have Another (Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez) – This colt has come a long way since finishing 19 lengths behind the winner on Labor Day in Saratoga where his Beyer was a 40. He took five months off and came back to win the Robert B. Lewis at 43-1, getting a 96 Beyer in the process. Then he beat Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby, Beyering a 95. Even though he is 2-for-2 this year, including winning one of the major preps, he is not getting much respect, with his morning line set at 12-1. The colt is by Flower Alley from an Arch mare, and trained by one of California’s leading conditioners. One note of caution is that he had shock wave therapy for tightness in his back, and stayed in California rather than coming to Louisville to get in a work over the surface. 20) Liaison (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia) – There is a handicapping angle in which you bet the less-regarded part of an uncoupled entry, in this case going with this guy over Bodemeister. For some inexplicable reason, it is an approach that often works. Baffert himself had a Derby winner using this tack when Real Quiet prevailed over the favorite Indian Charlie in 1998. That, quite frankly, is about the only way you would come up with this colt by Indian Charlie (hmmm…) out of a Victory Gallop mare (double hmmmm….). He started his three-year old career by losing his jockey after clipping heels in the Robert B. Lewis where he was favored. He returned in the San Felipe (top Beyer of 92) finishing five behind Creative Cause and then nine in arrears to I’ll Have Another and Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby. He has, however, made a striking appearance since arriving in Louisville, and is adding the blinkers he wore during his two-year old season when he was 3-for-4 including a Grade I. Hmmmm… higher price of uncoupled entry, sire lost as favorite to stable mate Real Quiet, dam’s sire denied Real Quiet’s bid to win Triple Crown.

ANALYSIS

When I began working on this, I thought there were 11 three-year olds who had a legitimate shot on winning this. After spending a lot of time on this, I eliminated one of those 11 and now think there are 13 with a shot. While this may not prove to be an all-star cast, I think it is one of the most competitive ones in my memory. In every year since the Breeders’ Cup began, one would expect, at most, a handful to make it to this race. This year, nine of the thirteen Juvenile starters are in this field, including the top five. Eight of those nine (Optimizer being the exception) returned to win a graded stake this year. There has not been a large number of triple digit Beyers. If you don’t count the three run by Bodemeister, including a 108, there are only three others run by three different colts. If you count Daddy Long Legs’ Racing Post Rating of 117, which I equate to a 105 Beyer, there are four. There are entrants, however, who are capable of jumping up and running a Derby-worthy Beyer. A major factor in every Derby is the importance of how the horse handles the Churchill Downs surface, as well as the animal’s physical appearance. Those considerations would have led one to Animal Kingdom last year who won convincingly at a long price. I rely heavily on Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form, but will also listen to the televised commentary going up to the race. Here are the seven that I do not think can win: Daddy Long Legs, because of drawing post position 1 and the fact that as of Friday morning had not been on the track; Optimizer, nothing to recommend; Rousing Sermon, low speed figures; Trinniberg, never gone beyond 7 furlongs; Prospective, low speed figures; Done Talking, low speed figures; and, Sabercat, also low speed figures. Having very adeptly eliminated almost a third of the field, there are several who could win but have serious enough questions that I do not think warrant a wager. I do not like Dullahan because of my view that the Blue Grass Stakes is not a major prep, and when a horse’s best races have been on the Keeneland surface I will discount their chances. I won’t go with Creative Cause because of the “mixed signals” Mike Welsch is getting from him during his stay at Churchill. Alpha is off my list because of his physical problems going up to the race. I will not be backing Hansen. He is another that Mike Welsch reports as not looking all that great on the track, in the one time he came to it from the training center where he had been working. His Beyer pattern this year – 96, 95, 96 – suggests a horse who has already peaked. Great!!! Only 45 per cent of the field is left. If I want to put my money where my mouth is and back up my view that this is the most competitive race in years, I cannot bet either of the two likely favorites, Bodemeister and Union Rags. Each looks great and has trained exceptionally well. I think Bodemeister, and I am not swayed by the fact that he would break a 130-year history of no horse winning the Derby without racing at two. I am convinced he has a sufficient bottom based on the reported 30 works before his first race. Union Rags is one I am less certain of. His five-race Beyer pattern going back to August is 93, 95, 94, 92, 95. I am not going to take a relatively short price with the hope that he is due for a breakout race. We’re getting there. Here are two that my gut tells me won’t do it: As much respect as I have for Graham Motion, I can’t see him replicating last year’s triumph with Went the Day Well. I’ll Have Another is a colt who has improved big time this year, but I am leery of a speed horse in a field with lots of speed being ridden by a jockey in his first Derby. At this point I know you are saying, “Did Liaison scratch?” Not of this writing, at least. I recognize the tendency to get a little too caught up in one’s own words, but the more I looked at this colt the more I saw a potential for considerable upside. He was a top-ranked two-year old who removed blinkers for his sophomore year. He wasn’t embarrassed two races back in the San Felipe by Creative Cause and Bodemeister. He is restoring the blinkers and has, at least according to some reports, looked good at Churchill. At odds of 50-1, I think he warrants a flyer. The other price horse I think warrants a good look is El Padrino. He began the year running Beyers of 100 and 98 before disappointing with a 4^th place finish in the Florida Derby, running a 90. While he had no apparent excuse for that effort, he was less than two lengths back of Union Rags. We are down to three: Take Charge Indy, Daddy Nose Best and Gemologist. I’ll pick Gemologist. But tomorrow I will probably change my mind.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

My hope is that adding his photo to the Blue Ribbon Analysis will increase the likelihood of Barton retaining interest in subsequent legs. He has been sleeping in a chair next to me as I write this, but has climbed up in my lap for two entrants: El Padrino and Bodemeister. He may have a particular affinity for Bodemeister because the colt was foaled and raised on the farm where the first Triple Crown winner, Sir Barton, stood at stud. Barton the cat was named after the horse. © T. E. Noonan 2012

BELMONT STAKES 2011

Only Edition

When? Saturday, June11

Where? NBC-TV at 6:16 ET

We may not have much time to get this done. Because of personal plans, I have to get this done quickly. Unfortunately, the entirety of my first draft was not saved, for reasons I think I understand. So, I will do as much as I can in limited time. In case tou are wondering what Barton, the handicapping cat thinks, he is presently irritated with me. Also, after the Preakness, he threw up on my notebook where I keep track of selections. I do not know what I did to irritate him back ten, but he is not being helpful.

THE FIELD

1) Master of Hounds (Aidan O’Brien/Garret Gomez) – In what appeared to be a weak crop of three-year olds going in to theDerby, he looked like a live longshot. In my earlyDerby analysis, I picked him to win. When I read that he did not have a good appearance when he arrived at Churchill, I altered my opinion. He ran a solid fifth in theDerby, 5+ lengths back of the winner, earning a Beyer of 95 in his first ever start on dirt. In two of his three prior starts, one on Meydan’s synthetic and one on the grass, he earned Racing Post Ratings of 115, which I think equates to a 102 Beyer. At a morning line of 10-1 and a top American jockey, he has to be considered a possible upsetter. 2) Stay Thirsty (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – Although he won the Gotham on Aqueduct’s inner on March 5, (earning his top Beyer of 89), his subsequent distant seventh-place finish in the Florida Derby and distant twelfth in the Kentucky Derby do not suggest anything compelling a conclusion he could win theBelmont. He has had a good string of works since theDerby, but had a similar pattern before theDerby, so I give little weight to that factor. 3) Ruler On Ice (Kelly Breen/Jose Valdivia) – His two wins are in a maiden and NW1X allowance, but did get his Beyer top of 86 in the Grade III Sunland Derby, where he finished only a head behind the Preakness show horse, Astrology. In his subsequent start, the ungraded Federico Tesio, he ran second as the favorite, with a Beyer of 83. He is adding blinkers for this event, a tool his trainer has had a 30 per cent success rate with over the past 18 months, but I do not think this is sufficient to move him to the winner’s circle. 4) Santiva (Eddie Kenneally/Shaun Bridgmohan) – I find this colt intriguing even though he has only one win – in a Grade II stake last year at Churchill Downs. In his first start this year, he ran second in Mucho Macho Man‘s Risen Star, finishing 1 1/2 back with a Beyer of 91. He only beat three others in the polytrack Blue Grass as the favorite, and left theDerby starting gate at odds of 35-1. He finished sixth, 5+ lengths back with a Beyer of 95. He has run quite creditably in his last three dirt starts – all graded stakes – and I think he is an upset possibility. 5) Brilliant Speed (Tom Albertrani/Joel Rosario) – Although he won the Blue Grass Stakes on Keeneland’s polytrack in his finalDerby prep, he went of at odds of 28-1 at Churchill. Part of this is attributable to the declining significance of Keeneland’s premier spring race as aDerby prep (or a race of significance for any reason), and part due to his losing his two dirt starts by 40 lengths in maiden events. Nonetheless, he ran well in theDerby, finishing less than three lengths behind the place horse, Nehro, and earning a Beyer of 95. 6) Nehro (Steve Asmussen/Corey Nakatani) – There is a good chance he will be the most overbet horse in the race. In three graded stakes this year, he finished a head behind in the Louisiana Derby and the Arkansas Derby, and completed his own version of a hat trick by running second at Churchill on the first Saturday in May. His profile is one that will haveBelmont bettors jumping all over him on the premise he will get better with more distance. He certainly is a legitimate threat with his last three Beyers (in reverse chronological order) being 99, 98 and 94. 7) Monzon (Ignacio Correas IV/Jose Lezcano) – While no entrant has more wins than this guy’s three, it is hard to generate any enthusiasm for his chances. After two wins by a combined 17 lengths last summer, his only subsequent victory was in the ungraded Count Fleet on the inner at Aqueduct, where he earned his Beyer top of 90. Since then he has run a 72 and 82 in two undistinguished performances in the Sam F. Davis and the Peter Pan. 8) Prime Cut (Neil Howard/Edgar Prado) He has not finished off the board since his first start, and has run second (Lexington Stakes) and third (Peter Pan) in his last two starts in graded stakes. With a Beyer top of 91, he appears to be a cut below many of the others. 9) Animal Kingdom (Graham Motion/John Velazquez) – The Derby winner has run matching 103 Beyers in the first two legs of the Triple Crown and has been training sharply. Other than his low odds, there is a lot to like here. 10) Mucho Macho Man (Kathy Ritvo/Ramon Dominguez) – I’m off this decreasing bandwagon. I liked him in the last two, but I think he has danced one too many to now win a mile and one-half race. It will be his sixth start this year and eleventh career. Twice he has had the excuse of losing a shoe, including in the Preakness, and now has both a new blacksmith and jockey. His Derby Beyer of 99 tied his career top, but is his only one over 94 this year. 11) Isn’t He Perfect (Doodnauth Shivmangal/Rajiv Maragh) – The question mark may be missing from his name, but there is none with respect to his chances here. Thirteen career starts, Beyer top of 87. 12) Shackleford (Dale Romans/Jesus Castanon) – We should have known The Rapture would not happen on May 21 when a jock named Jesus was on a live shot in the Preakness. Many of the experts discount this guy’s chances because front-running horses cannot hold on in a race this long, but lone speed horses are great bets. He is also drawn on the outside of other possible front-runners, giving him another advantage. Possible challenges for the lead? Prime Cut may go and Ruler On Ice is adding blinkers. Interestingly, Mucho Macho Man has had some success running close. Still, I think there is a good chance this colt could wire the field.

ANALYSIS

I’ll be brief. I have so many technical issues with this that I just want to get it out. I think both the Derbyand Preakness winners have legitimate shots here, but both will be a short price. For a good price, I am going with Master of Hounds. I think Santiva, Brilliant Speed and Nehro could fill superfecta slots.

PREAKNESS STAKES 2011

Final Edition

When? Saturday, May 21

Where? NBC-TV at 6:16 ET

“One of our beautiful Preakness fillies [will bring members of the media to the interview area.]”

— Dave Rodham, Pimlico track announcer, at post-position draw for the Preakness

All of the factual information contained herein is from, primarily, The Daily Racing Form, both the print and on-line editions. Other sources include the print and on-line editions of The Blood Horse, Thoroughbred Times, Thoroughbred Times TODAY, Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac and The New York Times. The analytical material, including that which turns out to be correct, is mine unless otherwise noted.

Presumably, Dave Rodham was not referring to Rachel Alexandra, but to females of the human persuasion. This must be part of the effort to increase racing’s appeal to women. On Friday, the day of the three-year old filly (equine) race, the Black-Eyed Susan, there will be a legends race featuring women jockeys. It is now de rigueur for sporting events to pay lip service to breast cancer awareness and research, so the Maryland Jockey Club will contribute an amount equal to the win pool to the Susan G. Komen Race for the Cure.

If Friday is Women’s Day at the Races, there is no question Saturday is for the boys. As I noted in a March 31 blog posting, the mascot for this year’s Preakness is “Kegasus,” a half-man, half-horse with a beer gut. As part of the celebration, there will be a beer garden with $2 drafts starting at 8 a.m. (sic), an infield mug club where your souvenir mug entitles you to unlimited refills (sic), an oxygen bar area with beer pong, and the Jagermeister cornhole (sic) tournament. Now, I enjoy a cold one as much as the next guy (although I have no idea what the last two events entail), but promoting drunken revelry at an event that has had its share of – frankly – scary moments in the past has to be the height of irresponsibility. We have Frank Stronach of Magna Entertainment Corporation to thank for this. It is yet another example of the taste and class he embodies that one wonders why he is not in the Republican presidential field.

Let’s get to the race. It appears that weather will not be a factor.

THE FIELD

1) Astrology (Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith) – This is a well-regarded colt who, while only winning twice, has either won or placed second in four consecutive graded stakes going back to his win in Churchill’s Iroquois on Halloween, and has never been off the board. In two starts this year, he has run second in the Sunland Derby (Beyer 87) and second in the sloppy Jerome where he hit his career Beyer top of 93.

2) Norman Asbjornson (Chris Grove/Julian Pimentel) – If he starts, he will the only one of the first four finishers from the Wood Memorial who actually made it to a race. Since two of those who finished in front of him – Toby’s Corner and Uncle Mo – projected to be short prices in the Derby, one might think this guy warrants a long look. He will get one, since he figures to be on the track longer than most of his competitors. His only wins came at Penn National and an allowance at the track formerly known as Philadelphia Park where his Beyers were 54 and 71. His numbers have gone up, and he did run well in two graded stakes – a second in the Gotham (83) and fourth in the Wood (87).

3) King Congie (Tom Albertrani/Robby Albarado) – His first two starts were on dirt and were miserable, beating only three horses and losing by a combined 31 lengths. He switched to the grass and won three straight, including two ungraded stakes. In his last start, on Keeneland’s polytrack, he ran a good third, losing only by a head. He has a wonderful pattern of improving Beyers in every start, culminating with a 93 in the Blue Grass Stakes. Even though his dirt form was poor, I will discount that factor when the races were the first of his career, and he has demonstrated a steadily improving career.

4) Flashpoint (Wesley Ward/Cornelio Velasquez) – Visions of roses had to be dancing in the heads of Peachtree Stable when this guy won his first start by 6+, and then won the Grade II Hutcheson by 7+ with a Beyer of 102. Maybe it is his breeding (sired by Pomeroy out of a Two Punch mare), or the fact that he only had two sprints on his resume, but he could not keep pace with Shackleford in the Florida Derby, finishing fourth, 8 lengths back. He has since had an excellent series of 5-furlong works, but will once again have to confront Shackleford and other early speed in this event.

5) Shackleford (Dale Romans/Jesus/Castanon) – He has run two good ones at odds of 69-1 and 23-1, but his Preakness price will be much lower given the view that the “shorter” and “tighter” track favors speed horses. Of course, it is only 1/16 mile shorter than the Derby, and at 1 3/16 miles is farther than most of these horses will ever run again. His Derby Beyer of 97 was a career best, but definitely in line with prior figs this year of 93 and 89. He definitely projects to be in the early mix, but will offer far less parimutuel value.

6) Sway Away (Jeff Bonde/Garrett Gomez) – He hasn’t won since his first start in June, but has run decently in four subsequent graded stakes, including a fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (93), only three lengths behind Nehro (second in Kentucky). He added blinkers in his last start, and second-time blinkers is a useful angle, although with a comment line of “[r]ank, wide, lugged in,” one wonders how useful they were.

7) Midnight Interlude (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia) – He is the only one of the five Derby horses who did not run a decent race at Churchill, beating only three horses and finishing 17+ in arrears. He is getting the “Lookin At Lucky jockey switch,” with Baffert moving from Victor Espinoza to Garcia. I am not sure that will be sufficient to overcome a Derby Beyer of 77, and only one career Beyer exceeding 85 – his 97 in the Santa Anita Derby. This is a colt who did not race at two, and has now had five races as a three-year old. I am having a difficult time seeing an upside here. Baffert may agree with me. The Thoroughbred Times Today quoted him as saying, “I’ve always won it with the best horse of the crop. I think I would feel better having The Factor in here.”

8) Dance City (Todd Pletcher/Ramon Dominguez) – Of all the “new shooters” (those who did not run in the Derby), this colt’s last race Beyer of 95 is the best, even if only by two ticks. He has yet to finish off the board in four career starts, and has a steadily improving Beyer profile. In his last race, he finished third in the Arkansas Derby, less than two lengths back. Pletcher is another trainer who does not appear to be enthralled with his horse’s chances: “I think most of the time all the best horses are running in the Derby. You have the occasional Red Bullet who decides to pass, but for the most part, the best horses are in the Derby.” (This quote is also from Thoroughbred Times Today.)

9) Mucho Macho Man (Kathy Ritvo/Rajiv Maragh) – He is the baby of the field, having been born in June (of 2008, that is), but has accomplished a lot. He has only been off-the-board once (a fourth) in nine career starts, has competed in six graded stakes, and was third in the Derby. Pimlico will be the eighth track on which he will have raced. His three consecutive Beyers in the 90’s, topped with a Derby 99, is only exceeded in this field by Dialed In‘s four straight.

10) Dialed In (Nick Zito/Julien Leparoux) – I did not like him in the Derby, and even though he had a decent close, finishing eighth, 7+ back, I do not see any reason to like him here. His last three Beyers have been in the low 90’s, and you have to go back to a January 97 in a one-turn mile to find a number that could win this. A dissenting view can be found in the Daily Racing Form‘s Steven Crist who points out that this guy’s closing half-mile of under 47 seconds has been exceeded only by the 46 3/5 run by a horse called Secretariat.

11) Animal Kingdom (Graham Motion/John Velazquez) – By all accounts he came out of the Derby in great shape, and has not missed an oat in his feed tub. According to Horse Racing TV’s Richard Migliore, his appearance may be even more impressive than it was before the Derby. His Derby win was quite impressive, and with only five lifetime races – and just one on dirt – there is no reason to think that he cannot improve. No one in the field has run a higher Beyer than his Derby 103.

12) Isn’t He Perfect (Doodnauth Shivmangal/Edgar Prado) – Actually, he is far from it. In his debut at Saratoga he finished 47 lengths back and followed that effort up by being eased. He moved to the claiming ranks and broke his maiden for $40K on the Aqueduct inner track. His only other win in 12 career starts came in a race restricted to horses who had raced in a claiming event. His last two starts have been in graded stakes where he, surprisingly, did not embarrass himself – running fifths in the Wood (84) and Jerome (80) – but did little to lead one to think he will win the Preakness. The Wood Beyer is his career top. Nonetheless, this may be the happiest horse of this year’s field. Trainer Shivmangal gives each of his charges a twice daily cocktail of Guinness and egg whites, according to Thoroughbred Times Today.

13) Concealed Identity (Dean Gaudet/Sheldon Russell) – The Preakness will be his first try against graded company, although he does have two stakes wins among his four career wins (from eight starts). His last two wins have come at Pimlico in the 65K Federico Tesio (86) and an optional claimer (83) – where he could have been acquired for $30,000.

14) Mr. Commons (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) – At least he is not called “Mr. Common,” a sobriquet that is about as damning as you can get for a horse. In the Santa Anita Derby, he finished a good third behind Kentucky Derby starters Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top who finished 16th and 19th, respectively. So as key races go, that one – at least so far – has been a big negative one. His last race Beyer of 93 is equivalent to the final Derby preps of Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man and Shackleford, so he cannot be discounted in this spot.

ANALYSIS

The big question, of course, is whether Animal Kingdom is for real, or is he this year’s Super Saver? Is he much better on dirt (see Cigar), or did he just like the Churchill strip, or just have one of those days? I don’t have a clue. All of the experts saw this Derby as being the most wide-open, if not mediocre fields in years. Even I thought that. At the risk of being overly self-laudatory, I had narrowed the field to eight possibles. Two had physical problems (Archarcharch and Pants On Fire). Of the remaining six, five ran one through five. Now either I am a genius (unlikely, particularly since I did not win a dime), or the race was somewhat formful.

In the Derby Blue Ribbon, we discussed how historical trends have been falling by the wayside in picking the winner. Animal Kingdom‘s win caused at least one more (and possibly two) to go. One of the Preakness trends that has proven to be remarkably reliable is that the Preakness winner ran in the Derby. It doesn’t mean he won the roses, but at least contested it. Since 1983, only three who did not run at Churchill have won the Preakness: Rachel Alexandra, Bernadini and Red Bullet. One is a first ballot Hall of Famer, one was a brilliant horse of his generation, and Red Bullet was a highly touted three-year old who missed the Derby for reasons that escape me.

The other trend – at least in my opinion – is that the Preakness is won by a good horse. Admittedly, you have to put the likes of Funny Cide and War Emblem in that group – although each won the Derby. However, when you go down the list of the Preakness winners, you are not asking yourself, “Where did he come from?” The same is not true of either the Derby or the Belmont. I give you Giacomo, Mine That Bird, and Da’Tara as just some of the most recent examples. In fact, I would be willing to wager that many racing fans would not identify the last one as a Classic winner.

So, we need a horse who will not be a major surprise. To me, that means one who has been competitive in graded stakes and has a Beyer number that either is near what it takes to win, or shows room for improvement. Running in the Kentucky Derby is a major positive.

Say goodbye to Norman Asbjornson, Isn’t He Perfect and Concealed Identity. The top Beyer among the three is 87, and they have combined for only eight Beyers in the 80’s in 27 lifetime starts. (That last calculation – combining their stats – is admittedly, as Tom and Ray would say, “Boooogus.”)

In looking at the ones who did not start in the Derby – the “non-shooters” – I want to see a potential champion. Red Bullet is the least accomplished in recent years of those who won the Preakness but did not start on the First Saturday in May. Among Astrology, King Congie, Flashpoint, Sway Away, Dance City and Mr. Commons, I do not see a Red Bullet, let alone a Rachel Alexandra. This is not to say, however, that any of them could not wind up in exactas, trifectas or supers. Each of them, by the way, (except Flashpoint) has a last race Beyer comparable to Animal Kingdom‘s penultimate number.

Of the Derby runners, I cannot make a case for Midnight Interlude, even though he has Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia in his corner (although Baffert’s enthusiasm, shall we say, is somewhat tempered). Each of them, by the way, loses more than 70 per cent of the time. As noted earlier, I do not think Dialed In is that good, and he is a decidedly undesirable wagering prospect as the morning line second choice. I think Shackleford‘s chances will be compromised by the likelihood that the Preakness projects to have a faster pace, decreasing the possibility that he will be first to the wire.

That leaves the winner and show horse from the Derby. The only knock I have on Animal Kingdom is that he will be a very short price (his morning line is 2-1). I am going with Mucho Macho Man. Horses that I think can round out the superfecta are Shackleford, Dialed In, and non-Derby starters Astrology and Sway Away.

In addition, there are two handicapping tools worth noting. The Daily Racing Form is providing frr Past Performances for the Preakness on its web site, and Thoroughbred Times Today has videos of all the preps, including the Kentucky Derby. Go to the “links” page to access either of these sources.

WHO IS THE CAT GOING WITH?

Barton, the handicapping cat and I have been apart during the time I wrote this first edition. We will be reunited on Friday night, and he may provide some of his feline insight at that point. UPDATE: He did jump up to my lap, purring loudly as I was finishing up with the Dialed In analysis.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2011

Final Edition

When? Saturday, May 7

Where? NBC-TV at 6:24 ET

“I’ve always wanted to be number one, just not in the Derby starting gate.” — Jinks Fires on drawing the one hole All of the factual information contained herein is from, primarily, The Daily Racing Form, both the print and on-line editions. Other sources include the print and on-line editions of The Blood Horse, Thoroughbred Times, Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac and The New York Times. The analytical material, including that which turns out to be correct, is mine unless otherwise noted. Every Derby presents its unique challenges, but this year’s edition is one of the most unusual ones I have seen. As hard as I try, it is often difficult to not like the favorite, if only just a little bit. This year, I did not care for either the likely favorite or second-choice, whether it is Uncle Mo or Dialed In. Then Mo scratched. That left as the probable favorite a horse whose speed figures are not even among the best of a weak field. That, of course, makes for the optimal wagering situation when you can toss the favorite and land on more appealing odds. The problem is finding a landing site. Here are the winning prices for the last five major preps: $52.20 (Arkansas Derby), $40.20 (Blue Grass), $29.80 (Santa Anita Derby), $19.40 (Wood) and $7.80 (Florida Derby). If you want to add a couple of others to the mix, the Sunland Derby yielded a $53.20 payout and the Tampa Bay Derby produced an $89.40 winner. If Dialed In did not catch Shackleford at the wire, the Florida Derby winner would have paid $139.80. What this means is that there is not exactly a wealth of well-regarded horses waiting in the wings should the likely favorite falter. In fact, the second betting choice may well be a horse with one career win – Nehro, whose claim to fame is that he almost won two of the major preps. As readers of past editions of The Blue Ribbon Analysis know, I am a strong believer in the value of Beyer speed figures in the handicapping process. For the uninitiated, Beyer figures are developed by Andy Beyer and his colleagues, and assess the relative speed of a race by analyzing a number of factors. This year’s field is noteworthy for the clustering of numbers across a narrow range. Twelve of the entrants have run a last race Beyer between 93 and 98 (I am counting Master of Hounds‘ Racing Post Rating in that number). Uncle Mo, who could’ve been the favorite, not only is not in that group, but does not have a three-year old Beyer that is in the top 18 run by this year’s crop. There have been 11 numbers higher than Dialed In‘s last race 93 (although he did run a 97 this year). THE FIELD

1) Archarcharch (William Fires/Jon Court) – This colt is, without question, one of the most interesting (and bettable) ones in the field. In addition to being a genuine “feel good” story with a 70-year old trainer running his first Derby horse and a jock who is married to said trainer’s daughter, he owns the field’s best last-race Beyer with a 98. He broke his maiden in a stakes at the Fair Grounds the week before Christmas, and won the Grade III Southwest and Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. He has an interesting pattern of winning every other start. Unfortunately, he needs to break that pattern to win the Derby, but watch for him in the Preakness. He is also seeking to become the first horse since Ferdinand in 1986 to win from this post position. Remarkably enough, no post position has produced more Derby winners since 1900, but with the advent of 20-horse fields it seems to be a more daunting task.

2) Brilliant Speed (Tom Albertrani/Joel Rosario) – He exhibited just that in winning the Blue Grass with a closing 3 furlongs of 34 and change, by far the fastest closing time of any entrant. His Beyer was a 93. The bad news for him, however, is that this year the Derby will be run on dirt, and not on grass or a synthetic track. His connections wisely tried him on turf after his two dirt stars resulted in a combined 40 lengths worth of beating. He broke his maiden three starts later on the weeds and ran well in two ungraded turf stakes before upsetting the Blue Grass at 19-1.

3) Twice the Appeal (Jeff Bonde/Calvin Borel) – Along with Rosie Napravnik’s mount, this colt figures to be the most over bet entrant for reasons having nothing to do with his perceived talent. When your jockey has won three of the last four Derbies, including on an absolute bomber exiting the same prep, that is all many people have to know. The colt broke his maiden in a $30K claiming event on December 29, then won a race restricted to former claimers before winning a prep that now has more significance than Keeneland’s Blue Grass — the Grade III Sunland Derby. He has yet to hit 90 on the Beyer scale (Sunland was an 89), but the same can be said about Borel’s second Derby winner, Mine That Bird.

4) Stay Thirsty (Todd Pletcher/Ramon Dominguez) – I don’t always bet on horses, but when I do I prefer ones other than this one. After breaking his maiden at Saratoga, he finished 1 3/4 lengths behind last year’s second-best juvenile, Boys At Toscanova, in the Hopeful. That made him an instant Derby contender even though he followed that up with a 14+ length loss to Uncle Mo in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He opened his sophomore campaign with a win in the Gotham (Beyer 89) before flopping badly in the Florida Derby, finishing almost 17 lengths back.

5) Decisive Moment (Juan Arias/Kerwin Clark) – I have never heard of the trainer or jock, and just learned of the horse when he ran second in the Spiral. After breaking his maiden in his first start, he crossed the line first in one of seven subsequent races – the Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs where he picked up his career best Beyer of 91. In his next two starts, he fell off to a 85 in the Risen Star and 88 in the Spiral.

6) Comma to the Top (Peter Miller/Pat Valenzuela) – Nice investment. He cost $22,000 last year at an auction, and has gone on to earn $778K, including a Grade I and a second in the Santa Anita Derby. If he doesn’t add Derby purse money to that total, it will not be because he did not have a sufficient base. He raced ten times at two (sic) and three more this year, ending his two-year old campaign with five consecutive wins. At three, he disappointed twice with 4th place finishes before almost wiring the SA Derby field, losing by a head after drifting out, earning a 97 Beyer. I’d be tired too if I raced as often as he has.

7) Pants On Fire (Kelly Breen/Rosie Napravnik) – If you like this colt, you will have to accept a lower price because I anticipate a lot of people will be betting on what would be the first woman jockey to win the Kentucky Derby. Indeed, of the five women who have ridden in the Derby, none has finished better than 11th. (There are also two women trainers, seeking to become the first of their gender to win the Derby, but that will not capture the attention of most fans.) Napravnik won the riding title at the Fair Grounds with over 100 wins, and all I can say is that she must be one good rider to overcome all of the inside games that are endemic at the New Orleans track. She also came a couple of steps from winning yesterday’s Oaks on an 16-1 shot with a ride that was reminiscent of Calvin Bo-rail. How about the colt? He is definitely flying under the radar, even though he won the Louisiana Derby with a 94 Beyer, beating Nehro and Mucho Macho Man, each of whom is likely to be a shorter price. His only other win in eight starts was a romp in the slop at Delaware.

8) Dialed In (Nick Zito/Julien Leparoux) – He is the likely post-time favorites. His role as possible favorite came when his furious finishing kick in the Florida Derby edged the 69-1 front running Shackleford. He broke his maiden at Churchill in November in his first career start before winning the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. His next start was in an unorthodox spot, running against an allowance field of some older horses, losing to his stable mate, the unremarkable Equestrio. His Beyer top of 97 was achieved in the Holy Bull, following that up with a 90 and a 93 in the Florida Derby. I simply am not willing to accept short odds on a horse who does not appear to be that fast, even if he has one of the best records in the field.

9) Derby Kitten (Mike Maker/Javier Castellano) – So here’s my question: Why do you use “Derby” in a horse’s name and then not enter him in a single race carded for the dirt? It may be because the sole time he did race on the dirt (an event taken off the grass), he finished 27+ lengths back of the winner. He became the last horse to qualify for the field when he won the Lexington at Keeneland on April 23 and Toby’s Corner was declared from the field on Tuesday. That first-time try on an artificial surface earned him his career top fig of 91, ten points better than his prior top.

10) Twinspired (Mike Maker/Mike Smith) – He likes Keeneland’s polytrack surface, having broken his maiden in his first start and missing by a nose in the Blue Grass. As we have noted elsewhere, however, Keeneland form does not transfer to Churchill form. His only other victory in eight career starts came on Turfway’s artificial surface where he won a minor stake. In his lone dirt start, he ran the poorest race of his career, losing by almost 12 lengths with a Beyer of 58. His Beyer top is a 93 in the Blue Grass.

11) Master of Hounds (Aidan O’Brien/Garrett Gomez) – This year’s European import will be making his first dirt start. He broke his maiden in his fourth career start in Ireland, but then ran third in a Grade I in the UK. He was favored (at 4-1) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill, but finished 6th by 3 lengths after having to steady early. In his only three-year old start, he switched to Dubai’s artificial surface at Meydan where he was nipped at the wire by the brilliant three-year old filly Khawlah. His Racing Post Ratings for the Group I turf race and the Group II UAE Derby were matching 115’s. I have found that subtracting 12 from those figures yields an approximate Beyer equivalent, meaning that he ran a 103 in each event.

12) Santiva (Eddie Kenneally/Shaun Bridgmohan) – His sole win came in a two-turn graded stake at Churchill, the only time he was ridden by Bridgmohan. He then ran second to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star, making him the favorite for the Blue Grass. He finished 9th in that event, with a Beyer of 82. His top fig is a 91 in the Risen Star.

13) Mucho Macho Man (Kathy Ritvo/Rajiv Maragh) – Trainer Ritvo will be giving Jinks Fires a run for his money to be this year’s “feel good” story. The 42-year old Boston native (from the family of the racing Petros) had a heart transplant in 2008, saving her life. While her horse has only two wins, he is not lacking for commercial appeal. There was some talk with the Village People, and the 3M Corporation is also getting involved. In eight career starts, he has only been off the board once, when he was bumped hard in the chute as the favorite in Dialed In‘s Holy Bull. Since then, he won the Risen Star (Beyer 94) and finished 3rd in the Louisiana Derby by 3/4 length (93) after losing a shoe and grabbing a quarter. His Beyer top is a 99 in Aqueduct’s Remsen on Thanksgiving weekend. One negative about him is that he was foaled in June, an unusually late date for any thoroughbred, let alone one trying to run 10 furlongs on May 7. He does, nonetheless, have 8 career starts, including two at 1 1/8 miles.

14) Shackleford (Dale Romans/Jesus Castanon) – This is an interesting horse. He has run three 1 1/8 mile races this year, and is a head away from winning two of them. His opening fractions in the Florida Derby were fast: 46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5, before being nailed at the wire by Dialed In. Despite that pace, he finished almost seven lengths in front of the third horse. He also broke his maiden at Churchill in November, running a 85 Beyer in the process. This year’s numbers have been 89, 58 and a 93 in the Florida Derby.

15) Midnight Interlude (Bob Baffert/Victor Espinoza) – Only Archarcharch and Nehro have run a higher last race Beyer this year than this War Chant colt’s 97. He has four life time starts – all this year – with wins in the last two, including the Santa Anita Derby. As we will hear constantly, no horse in this century or the last has won the Derby without racing as a two-year old, and this guy waited until only three days were left in January to begin his path to Louisville.

16) Animal Kingdom (Graham Motion/Robby John Velazquez) – Johnny V replaced Robby Albarado after the latter’s Derby week got off to an inauspicious start when he was thrown from a horse on Wednesday, and then had injury added to insult when the horse stepped on his face, fracturing his nose. The Derby marks the first time the colt will race on dirt. In four life-time starts, he has two W’s and two seconds, including a win in the Grade III Spiral at Turfway six weeks before the Derby. His career top Beyer of 93 fits in this field. One big question about him is his breeding, being by Leroidesanimaux out of a German mare, suggesting that turf would be his preferred surface.

17) Soldat (Kiaran McLaughlin/Alan Garcia) – Only Uncle Mo has run a higher Beyer than this guy’s 103 in a Gulfstream allowance run on a sloppy track. He broke his maiden in a graded stake on the Saratoga lawn, and won the graded Fountain of Youth on Gulfstream’s dirt before failing miserably in the Florida Derby, finishing 5th, 10 lengths back. His fast track Beyer of 96 in the Fountain of Youth is one of the field’s best.

18) Uncle Mo (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – SCRATCHED In case you haven’t heard, the reigning two-year old champion suffered his first defeat in the Wood Memorial, a loss that has been attributed to a gastrointestinal infection. Since then, he has improved and is training well at Churchill. He was truly brilliant as a two-year old, breaking his maiden by 14+ lengths at the Spa, and then easily winning two Grade I’s, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he Beyered an eye-popping 108. That is not only an exceptional number for a two-year old, but one that would win many Derbies. He began his Derby campaign with an easy win over four over-matched rivals in an ungraded one-turn stake at Gulfstream. His Beyer that day was the lowest of his career, an 89. On the same day, he could have run in the more competitive Tampa Bay Derby, but his connections opted for the softer spot. In the Wood, he “yielded” at the 1/16 pole, finishing behind Toby’s Corner and Arthur’s Tale, earning a Beyer of 92 – the second poorest of his career. There are increasing concerns about his three-year old year, although there is a good chance he will go to the post as the favorite. At a Derby press conference, owner Mike Repole refused to answer a direct question about whether the colt was pin-fired, an indication that he has sore shins. And on Wednesday, Repole announced that a five member panel, including three vets, would decide whether Mo should go. I think there are too many questions about this guy, and would not bet on him to win.

19) Nehro (Steve Asmussen/Corey Nakatani) – How does a horse with a single win project to be the third – and possibly second – betting choice in the Kentucky Derby? It’s the strong closing kicks he displayed in his last two starts, in which he finished a neck behind Pants on Fire in the Louisiana Derby and a neck in arrears to Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby. Many observers figure that if a horse just misses at 1 1/8 mile, the extra furlong can only help. They may be right, and this colt does have among the best last two races as anyone in the field, running Beyers of 98 and 94.

20) Watch Me Go (Kathleen O’Connell/Rafael Bejarano) – Only Comma to the Top has more wins than this guy’s four. The first three came in the standard progression of maiden, allowance and optional claiming followed by many ordinary horses. He became a Derby horse when he shocked the Tampa Bay Derby at 44-1, the longest shot of the many long shots who won preps. He followed that victory with his first trip outside Florida, running 6th in the Illinois Derby, 17 lengths back as the favorite. If you take out his less-than awesome Tampa Beyer of 84, his top is a 76. This is clearly a horse that should return to the optional claiming ranks, not the Kentucky Derby.

ANALYSIS

“The prospective field for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby could be the worst in decades. Except for Uncle Mo – the champion colt whose current form is suspect – not one of the other 19 entrants would rate as a serious contender in an average Derby.” — Andy Beyer in the May 6 Daily Racing Form Thanks, Andy. That makes everything easier. Let’s narrow our choices by identifying those we cannot see winning. In no particular order, I place Brilliant Speed, Twice the Appeal, Decisive Moment, Stay Thirsty, Watch Me Go, Twinspired and Derby Kitten on that list. That gets us down to 12, and I have already said I do not like Dialed In even a little bit, particularly as the favorite. That leaves eleven to deal with. In past Blue Ribbons, we have identified historical trends that have served to eliminate contenders. As the years have gone by, however, many of those trends have become meaningless. A Dosage Index over 4.00 was first to go, then no gelding has won since …, and the winner must have raced within the preceding four weeks. I think there are two, however, worth adhering to. The first is that the winner must have raced at two. That one has held up since 1883. This factor drops Midnight Interlude from consideration. The other is a little more subtle. The winner must have had a good race in his last start. He (or she) need not have won, but cannot have had a poor effort. The Daily Racing Form of April 30 pointed out that 14 of the 21 winners since 1990 did not win their final prep. More significantly, I think, is that the poorest finish by any of those 21 was Thunder Gulch‘s 4th place finish by 4 1/2 lengths. Mine That Bird and Giacomo are the only others who finished as low as 4th. Applying this criterion, we can eliminate Soldat (5th, 10+ back) and Santiva (9th, 6+ back). We’re down to eight: Archarcharch, Comma to the Top, Pants On Fire, Master of Hounds, Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford, Animal Kingdom and Nehro. Archarcharch was my top pick until the draw put him in post position 1. Jon Court is going to have to use some speed to get out, and still run the risk of being bounced into the rail. I do not see Comma to the Top getting 10 furlongs, particularly with breeding by Bwana Charlie and a Stormy Atlantic mare. His drifting out in the Santa Anita Derby is not a positive sign. His connections were not planning on the Derby until apparently being infused with Derby fever. Shackleford‘s hope is to get loose on the lead. But he will have to contend with several others with a similar mind set, and I cannot see him lasting. Of the five remaining, I do not think Animal Kingdom will win. In the earlier editions of this publication, in fact, I had even listed him in the group that I could not see winning. He has, however, received rave reviews for his general appearance and the way he has been training. I, therefore, moved him to be in the mix at the end. Physical appearance is the reason I removed Master of Hounds from the list of most serious contenders. In the First Edition, I actually picked the him to win. One of the most important factors for handicapping the Derby, however, is how the horse is taking to Churchill Downs. Mike Welsch analyzes workouts for the Daily Racing Form and reports that Master of Hounds looked “dull…listless and stiff.” From the final three of Pants On Fire, Mucho Macho Man and Nehro, I am going with Mucho Macho Man. Be sure to check out my Triple Crown blog on the Blog page at tnoonan.com for post-Derby and pre-Preakness analysis.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton, the handicapping cat is getting more difficult to read. As I was writing this, he climbed up on my lap and purred loudly for only one entrant, Mucho Macho Man. This is unusual because one of his favorite activities in sleeping on me while I work at the computer. © Singing Bridge Stables 2011

BELMONT STAKES 2010

Final Edition

When? Saturday, June 5

Where? ABC-TV at 6:32 ET

“If they have vomit on the tips of their shoes, I know I’m in trouble.”

— Bob Baffert, on NBC-TV, explaining how he knows if a jockey is nervous

*****

“the future of England’s dwindling pub industry rests with Wayne Rooney’s groin”

— New York Times, quoting Bloomberg News, on the UK’s hopes in the World Cup

*****

All of the factual information contained herein is from, primarily, The Daily Racing Form, both the print and on-line editions. Other sources include The Blood Horse, Thoroughbred Times, Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac and The New York Times. The analytical material, including that which turns out to be correct, is mine unless otherwise noted.

It is perhaps a measure of my anticipation of this Saturday’s final leg of the Triple Crown that I have to turn to soccer for interesting quotes – not that there is anything wrong with soccer since I hope to see as many games as I can. But the unbridled anticipation of seeing springtime in bloom at Keeneland’s race track, and the hope for another Triple Crown run before the Preakness, has yielded to the heat and thunderstorms over Long Island Sound for the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes.

While much commentary has been devoted to the absence of the Derby and Preakness winners, I think the real problem is that we are looking at a particularly uninspiring crop of three-year olds – and I am including Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky in that assessment. The Belmont has two Grade I winners – even though there are a number of two-year old and Derby prep Grade I’s – and only three others who have won a stake race of any grade. Four of the entrants have a single career win, and 8 starters have never exceeded a 95 on the Beyer scale. The most roubling aspect of that last fact is that this race could well be won with a 97 or 98.

But the Belmont appears to be an excellent betting race (i.e., wide open), and we should not lose sight of the fact that Belmont is offering a card that includes six Grade I or Grade II stakes. (Don’t spend a lot of time hoping to see the Grade I Manhattan, however, since it cannot be shown on either TVG or HRTV and the national networks would prefer to show an endless amount of nonsense rather than a truly interesting race on the undercard.)

THE FIELD

1) Dave in Dixie (John Sadler/Calvin Borel) – He must be running because owners Ike and Dawn Thrash knew Calvin Borel was available. There is little else to suggest this could be the winner of the Belmont Stakes. He won his first race on Del Mar’s poly, ran a decent second in the Robert B. Lewis to begin this year, but since then has been undistinguished, to put it mildly. He followed a 6th place finish in the San Felipe (beating one horse) before finishing 16 lengths back in the Illinois Derby in his only dirt start, achieving a Beyer of 72.

2) Spangled Star (Richard Dutrow/Garrett Gomez) – The owners could certainly use the $600k share of the winner’s purse since this guy has earned only $50K in his first eight starts. He broke his maiden in his sixth start, although – to be fair – only his third on dirt. He ran third in his only start in over three months in the one-mile Grade III Withers. While his Beyer in that race of 87 puts him in a group with many of these, I have to assume Dutrow will not fool with the New York drug testers by loading this guy up (at least any more than he already has).

3) Uptowncharlybrown (Kiaran McLaughlin/Rajiv Maragh) – He was highly regarded after winning his first two races at Tampa Bay by a combined 15 lengths. Things have not been so great since then, although he was in the hunt in the three Grade II or III stakes in which he has run. His four Beyers this year have been between 88 and 91, a pattern that does not suggest the jump needed to win this race (which I think is a 98).

4) Make Music for Me (Alexis Barba/Joel Rosario) – He ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby at odds of 30-1. Still looking for his second career win, he does have the distinction (along with the Derby’s show horse) of having his only win be in a stakes (on the grass). He is clearly a good horse. In nine career starts, seven have been in stakes (5 Grade I’s), and two of his three poorest efforts have been in his only maiden races. Were it not for his breeding (Bernstein, out of a Carson City mare), he would be an intriguing long shot.

5) Fly Down (Nick Zito/John Velazquez) – Only the Derby and Preakness second-place horses have a career Beyer higher than the 99 this colt earned in his dominating Withers performance. But for stable-mate Ice Box‘s scintillating work three days earlier, his 47 2/5 on the Oklahoma training track would stand out. There is a lot to like about this clearly improving horse.

6) Ice Box (Nick Zito/Jose Lezcano) – The likely favorite tore up the usually slow Saratoga training track with a 46 3/5 work on May 27. Many think he was clearly the best horse in the Derby, finishing second only because of the mountain of trouble he encountered. He won the Florida Derby with an imposing closing kick, and is the only entrant with two Beyers of 99 or higher (the other being a century).

7) Drosselmeyer (Bill Mott/Mike Smith) – He has been favored in six of eight life-time starts, being odds-on in three of them. That would make him an imposing presence here, except for the minor fact that he only won two of those – back-to-back maiden and allowance wins. His shortest price was in his last, losing to Fly Down by six in the Dwyer at 7-10. His last five Beyers have congregated in the range of 85 to 92, and it is hard to see a sufficient jump in his numbers needed for the W.

8) Game on Dude (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia) – Who says the Derby winner isn’t here? This gelding won the Lone Star Derby, a more recent win than the one accomplished in Loiusville. His preceding start on the muddy Churchill surface was less than auspcious, finishing almost 20 behind the winner. That start, by the way, was in the Derby trial. Nonetheless, he improved big time after switching trainers to Bob Baffert and adding blinkers. His win at Lone Star resulted in his career high Beyer of 95.

9) Stately Victor (Mike Maker/Alan Garcia) – The easy winner of Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes ran eighth in the Derby, albeit it with the almost universal trouble encountered once the gates opened. His best race was the Blue Grass, where he earned a 94 Beyer; his Derby fig was 91. In four lifetime starts on dirt, his only finish on the board was a second in a Saratoga maiden race.

10) Stay Put (Steve Margolis/Jamie Theriot) – While no one in the field has more wins, two of his came in optional claiming races. He did not embarass himself in his two stakes appearances, finishing a combined five lengths back in the Derby preps run at the Fairgrounds. His last three Beters have been 90, 90 and 89, suggesting he has hit his peak.

11) First Dude (Dale Romans/Ramon Dominguez) – He figures to be the second betting choice based on his second-place finish in the Preakness where he was 24-1. His lone win came at Gulfstream in a maiden, but he followed that up with a half-length loss to Fly Down in an allowance. Then came losses to Ice Box and Stately Victor before tiring in the late stages of the Preakness as the front-runner. That resulted in his Beyer top of 101, an 11-point jump over his previous best.

12) Interactif(Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – He is making his first dirt start since Saratoga’s opening weekend, and his first start overall in almost two months. His Beyers improved by 20 points when he moved from dirt to grass as a two-year old, but it is difficult to make too much of that for a colt running fairly well in stakes, although his last win came in October.

ANALYSIS

Although Ice Box is the most accomplished of the entrants to date with his Florida Derby victory and second in the Kentucky Derby, this looks like a wide-open race that anyone could win. There is simply not a great deal of separation on the Beyer scale between the lowest and highest figs, particularly when one considers how a three-year old can progress – and, conversely, regress – from one race to another. As a deep closer, Ice Box is vulnerable to those in front of him who get the first jump on the final turn.

The Preakness place horse, First Dude, figures to go to the front early, but I think he will be pressured by both Game On Dude and Interactif. So, if this pace analysis turns out to be accurate, and the front runners wear each other down and Ice Box is left with too much to do, who will benefit? I think Fly Down. Possible price play? Stately Victor.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton the handicapping cat has demonstrated as much interest in the Belmont as, unfortunately, most of the sporting world and many in the horse racing community. He did nothing to express a view, and is out of sorts on Belmont morning having just returned from a visit to the vet.

PREAKNESS STAKES 2010

Final Edition

When? Saturday, May 15

Where? NBC-TV at 6:10 ET

“We wanted to give everyone a chance to bet on the Kentucky Derby.”

— Joe Donahue, on WAMC, explaining why the calling hours for his 90-year old aunt were suspended between 4:00 and 7:00

If you would like to own a Kentucky Derby winner, there is one for sale. WinStar Farm, not to be confused with those lovable and elderly winners of Derbies past, has stated their willingness to part with Super Saver. As a friend once said to me, “you don’t go broke making a profit.” While that is certainly my goal in the thoroughbred racing and breeding business, one would like to think there is some room for sentiment with the winner of the race that every owner, trainer and jockey says they would most like to win.

Now, winning the Derby may becoming old hat for Calvin Borel who once again entered the record books with his third win in four years. While there are eight others with at least three wins, no one has ever done it in such a compressed time frame. The prior king of Churchill Downs racing, Pat Day, was only able to manage 1 win in 22 tries. It may be my imagination, but I think Borel, who was unknown outside the racing community before his win on Street Sense in 2007, has so taken to the public attention that I think even he is starting to pronounce his name “Bo-rail.”

Let us not leave the Derby without a negative shout-out for the coverage of the Kentucky Oaks by Bravo (the network not the jockey). I understand you cannot expect too much from a network that appears to be on a 24/7 diet of the “Housewives of” foolishness, but does it have to be inflicted on those who simply want to see a horse race? The Oaks is the second biggest race on dirt for fillies in this country, and we have to be subjected to embarrassing and cringe-inducing “features” during Bravo’s coverage.

So what are the big stories going into this year’s Preakness? One has to do with the advertising slogan, “Get Your Preak On,” that apparently has more than a few folks upset. The other, however, is a continuation of last year’s controversy concerning the consumption – or non-consumption – of alcohol in the Pimlico infield. As we recounted last year, Pimlico officials banned the bringing of alcohol to the infield because they were upset that You Tubes of inebriates racing along the tops of port-o-johns upset them. The ban worked. There was considerably less drunkenness in last year’s crowd. There were also considerably less crowd in last year’s crowd. After achieving an average attendance of 117,000 in the two preceding years, last year’s tally dropped to 71,768. The solution, of course, is obvious – sell a $20 ticket that allows one to consume all the beer one can drink. That’s right – the solution to rampant drunkenness is to adopt the time-tested policies of fraternities across the nation and allow patrons to drink all they can without having to worry about running out of money.

Let’s move on to the race. Here is the expected field for this year’s Preakness Stakes, with post positions, trainers and jockeys:

1) Aikenite (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – This colt has not won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga in early August, although he is placed in three graded stakes on the dirt since then. Most recently, he ran 2nd in the Derby Trial on a muddy track, earning his career best Beyer of 96, a last race number exceeded only by the real Derby’s winner and 3rd place finisher. His company lines include several of the entrants here, including Pleasant Prince, Paddy O’Prado, Dublin, Jackson Bend, First Dude and Lookin At Lucky. Pleasant Prince is the only one he has finished in front of, although he was in the neighborhood of the others at the finish line with the exception of a poor finish in the Blue Grass Stakes.

2) Schoolyard Dreams (Derek Ryan/Eibar Coa) – This is the only entrant who has ever finished in front of Super Saver, by a half-length (with a 6-pound weight break), in the Tampa Bay Derby. Although that is probably his career highlight to date, he finished less than two lengths behind Jackson Bend – a horse who will attract betting interest – in Eskendereya’s Wood Memorial. His Tampa Bay Derby Beyer of 94 is his career high.

3) Pleasant Prince (Wesley Ward/Julian Leparoux) – If you toss his loss by a nose to Derby second-place finisher Ice Box in the Florida Derby, he has never run a Beyer higher than 89. He ran 99 in the Gulstream event, but followed that performance with a 78 on Keeneland’s synthetic surface and 83 in the muddy Derby Trial where he finished almost 7 lengths behind Aikenite. He is one of the five horses in this field who have only won one race. That’s right, almost half the field in a American classic race have only won once.

4) Northern Giant (Wayne Lukas/Terry Thompson) – This is the third one we have looked at with only a maiden win to his credit. It took this colt two years and six starts to cross the finish line first and earn his career best Beyer of 92. While he did place in two subsequent graded stakes, he was a distant 14 lengths behind Super Saver and Dublin in the Arkansas Derby. It turns out that he had a medical condition that would have interfered with his performance.

5) Yawanna Twist (Richard Dutrow/Edgar Prado) – After bolting through his first two races restricted to New York-breds, he ran a decent second to Awesome Act, the fifth betting choice in a race called the Kentucky Derby. He followed that performance with a second as the favorite in the Illinois Derby. His Beyer top is a 96 in the Gotham. He is trained by Richard Dutrow of Big Brown “fame,” and is ridden by a jock who used to be one of the nation’s best. I do not know what has happened to Edgar Prado, who has become a 12% rider, but it is no longer a positive to see him on a horse.

6) Jackson Bend (Nick Zito/Mike Smith) – Can you say “wise guy” horse? As is the case with the Derby, he is one of only three entrants with a triple digit Beyer, although he acquired his last year and the other two ran one-three at Churchill, while he was finishing 19 in arrears. His top fig this year is a 93. Trainer Zito is not running the fast closing Ice Box here because he does not like to run one back so close to a big effort. Because this guy’s Derby could not be classified as big, he is a natural fit. As we pointed out in the Derby analysis, you ignore high-priced Zito horses in major races at your peril. Hence the “wise guy” designation.

7) Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia) – I made all my comments about bad luck last time, so you will have to get your fill on NBC-TV. Baffert decided a change was in order given that things were not going as well as anticipated, so took someone who may be the best jockey in the country off, and replaced him with Martin Garcia. It is hard to fault the decision – sometimes a change is needed to try for a different karma. Despite a horrible post and trip in the Derby, he finished well, barely 2 lengths from finishing on the board, his only off-the-board result in his career. He is the two year-old champ, 6 for 9 lifetime, and a Beyer high of 98 (on a dirt track). I think he is the one to beat.

8) Super Saver (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel) – Although many have said he got the perfect trip in the Derby, trainer Pletcher also thinks the colt’s tactical speed is what gave him the perfect trip. He apparently came out of the Derby in good order, and has the highest career Beyer in the field at 104. His win was not a fluke. While he may not be the second coming of Secretariat, his only race where he finished more than 2 lengths back was his maiden effort at Saratoga – and he was still second. If you want a negative, he has never won on a fast track that is not Churchill Downs.

9) Caracortado (Mike Machowsky/Paul Atkinson) – He began his career five-for-five with the first win coming on a dirt track – for a claiming price of $40K – on the California fair ground circuit. The California fairs should not be mistaken for Northampton or Marshfield, but they are also not Saratoga, or even Del Mar. He culminated the winnning streak with a win in one of Santa Anita’s Derby preps, the Robert Lewis, where he hit his career best Beyer of 98. He lost as the favorite to Derby morning line second-choice Sidney’s Candy, before finishing a little over a length behind Lookin At Lucky in that one’s 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby.

10) Paddy O’Prado (Dale Romans/Kent Desormeaux) – One of the five with a single lifetime win, although his came in a graded stake, and he did run third in the Derby. He is, obviously, a talented colt who has demonstrated proficiency on turf, sythetics and a sloppy Churchill Downs (his only two dirt starts). I can’t wait to see how he handles fast dirt as we anticipate the Pimlico strip will be.

11) First Dude (Dale Romans/Ramon Dominguez) – Although it is the best name based on breeding in the field – the dam is Run Sarah Run – his Beyer top is a 90, earned in an allowance race that he didn’t even win. Although he finished only a length behind Paddy O’Prado in the Blue Grass, it is difficult to rely on the form from that race.

12) Dublin(Wayne Lukas/Garrett Gomez) – Lookin At Lucky‘s former rider will be this guy’s seventh jockey in 10 starts. I continue to think he will win a good race one of these days, but the patience of the punting public may be running out. Despite going off at odds of 7-2 or lower in five consecutive starts since his last win, his Derby price of 20-1 was one of the highest on the board. Do not forget, however, that in his final Derby prep he finished only a neck behind Super Saver.

ANALYSIS

One of the more interesting trends in handicapping the Preakness is the importance of the winner having started in the Kentucky Derby. It is not always the case that the winner exited the Derby since in two of the past four years, neither Rachel Alexandra nor Bernardini started in the first jewel. I think the liklihood of this year’s winner emerging from among the seven non-Derby starters in large part depends on whether you think one of those seven is of the calibre of the 2006 or 2009 winner.

Even if you do not think there is a Horse of the Year among the seven non-Derby starters, you may think this is a suspect group of three-year olds, so you do not need a great horse to bring home the Woodlawn Vase. That was my view going into the Derby, where I speculated that that field looked more like a Grade III contest than a Grade I. (Incidentally, in the Derby Analysis, I cited Andy Beyer for the proposition that only three runners from the 2009 event went on to win another race. As I handicapped the Oaks and Derby cards, I noticed that all three of them were, coincidentally, running on those two days. I went back and checked his article, and what he said was that only three won a race later in 2009. My apologies if you lost any wagers relying on that bit of trivia.) The Derby results did not present any shocks, but when you think a race is completely wide-open and almost anyone could win, it is hard to have a surprising outcome.

I think the two best horses in the Preakness field are Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky. They have each been consistently good over their two year careers, and have now banked over $3 million between them. There is an additional group to whom the phrase “promising” might apply, but not “good.” Aikenite, Pleasant Prince, Northern Giant and First Dude each have only a maiden win to their credit, and the latter two would need a big jump in their Beyers (10 points or more) to be a factor here. Paddy O’Prado also has only one win to his credit, but that was in a graded stake on the weeds, and he did finish third in the Derby with a Beyer of 100. Jackson Bend is not only trained by a trainer who may have one of the best ROI’s for three-year old stake races, but has only once not run in the exacta – that being his 12th place finish in the Derby. Nonetheless, he is a horse who seemed better at two than three. There are also questions on whether his pedigree indicates suitability to run classic distances.

The biggest question marks are the quartet of Schoolyard Dreams, Yawanna Twist, Caracortado and, once again, Dublin. As noted in the analysis, Schoolyard Dreams is the only entrant to have ever finished in front of the Derby winner. Although I do not put any stock in the type of analysis “Horse A beat Horse B three races back, so Horse A is better,” because it ignores the reality that young horses change as they age, sometimes for better, sometimes not. In this case, I think Schoolyard Dreams has the potential to move forward. Yawanna Twist is a lightly-raced horse who also has the potential to move forward. Caracortado had demonstrated proficiency in the first five races of his career – being undefeated will do that – before seeming to regress as the races got tougher although still running creditably against good animals. Finally, there is Dublin. He hasn’t won since Labor Day, but ran well in his first three graded stakes this year before finishing 7th in the Derby, 1/2 length behind the favored – and possible Preakness favorite – Lookin At Lucky.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

I have been having difficulty adding photos to my web site – i.e., I have not been able to do it. For some reason, there is a large photo of our two cats on the home page, with Barton, the handicapping cat being the one peering around the edge of the cat toy. This is by way of saying that I have figured out the problem with photos, and will soon have additional ones up of our 3-month old filly Kima. And, yes I do have three grandchildren, so that will be rectified soon as well.

Barton climbed on me, purring loudly and digging his face in to my neck, for one entrant – Pleasant Prince. When I started writing about Northern Giant, he got down and left. In what may be a Freudian handicapping angle, I have several times entered “Pleasant Price” instead of “Pleasant Prince.”

WHO DO I LIKE?

I think the two most likely winners are either Super Saver or Lookin At Lucky. I do not think either are so solid, however, as to offer any betting value at what may be odds of 2-1 or less. At what figures to be a square price, I would pick Dublin. He ran OK in the Derby, 1/2 length behind Lookin At Lucky, and also has the important factor of having raced in the Derby, and is getting a major positive jockey switch. One who did not race in the Derby, but who I find intriguing, is Caracortado. In addition to his merits, he is making that switch from a synthetic surface to dirt. This has been a successful move by several California horses this year in prep races, and he also figures to be a price.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2010

Final Edition

When? Saturday, May 1

Where? NBC-TV at 6:25 ET

WEATHER ALERT: TORRENTIAL RAIN IS FALLING ON CHURCHILL DOWNS SATURDAY MORNING

All of the factual information contained herein is from, primarily, The Daily Racing Form, both the print and on-line editions. Other sources include The Blood Horse and Thoroughbred Tmes. The analytical material, including that which turns out to be correct, is mine unless otherwise noted.

Not to overstate the obvious, but this year’s race took a big hit when unquestionable favorite Eskendereya was declared because of filling in a leg. We are deprived not only of the numerous mispronunciations of his name, but the only three-year that appeared to be a special one. Then we witnessed the new favorite and second choice draw the two worse post positions for their styles in the post position draw, making this race even more wide-open than it had been on Wednesday morning. Not that every Derby field is loaded with future Grade I winners, but this group looks suspiciously like a Grade III event. Of course, when one of them jumps up to win impressively, we may change our opinion, notwithstanding that last year’s impressive winner started looking like a Grade III horse after his two weeks of fame.

Before looking at this year’s field, The Blue Ribbon, which does not accept advertising, would like to point out an extraordinary opportunity. Borders is offering a 50 percent discount on the memoirs of George W. Bush. While it will not be ready until, remarkably, after the election, you can get the big discount now without having to wait for it to hit the remainder bins, probably in January. I know I can’t wait to read a book by the president who in 8 years displayed not a shred of introspection or intellectual curiosity as the most powerful person in the world. Be sure to order it now!!

1) Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez)(removing blinkers) – Reading his trouble lines indicates this is either one very unlucky horse or a very talented one. His last four trouble lines include “bumped late,” “jumped heels” and a “steadied.” Despite that, he is a head away from winning 7 of 8, including four Grade Is. His most impressive effort – and his biggest losing margin – came in the Santa Anita Derby where he looked like he might have to be eased after running into a world of trouble, but ended up running like gangbusters to finish third behind Sidney’s Candy. What could possibly be the knock on a multiple graded stakes winner in what appears to be an undistinguished field? He doesn’t appear to be any faster than any other entrant. His Beyer top – earned, significantly, on dirt – is a 98 in Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes which certainly puts him in the mix with the rest of these, but is shy of the 109 and 106 run by Eskendereya. It is also difficult to take a short price on a colt who can get into a mess o’ troublein smaller fields without wondering what can befall him in the 20-horse roller derby run at Churchill. Drawing the one hole for the Derby may prove to be the unluckiest development yet for this guy. Over the past 12 years, the Derby draw had trainers drawing a number and then picking their post in order. The inside position was always the last one selected. Any inclination I had to pick this one on top dissipated with the draw.

2) Ice Box (Nick Zito/Jose Lezcano) – He is one of my nominees for this year’s wise guy horse. In a field full of speed, he will be running late as he did in winning the Florida Derby. His Beyer top of 99 was earned in that race, putting him a point under the number run by the filly Devil May Care four races earlier on the card. His two-year old career was undistinguished, losing three times in New York before breaking his maiden at the Meadowlands. He returned at Gulfstream before being dusted by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth (as was everyone else), and then winning the Florida Derby. He was as fortunate in the post position draw as Lucky was not. His closing style allows him to save ground all the way.

3) Noble’s Promise (Ken McPeek/Willie Martinez) – If you like Lookin At Lucky, be sure to give this one a close look, particularly at what will be a considerably more appealing mutuel. In three starts against the favorite, he finished less than two lengths total behind, including a third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and second in the Grade I Hollywood Futurity. He missed by a head to the chalk in the Rebel (Beyer top of 98) before running into a world of trouble on his own when finishing 5th as the fav in the Arkansas Derby.

4) Super Saver (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel) – Let’s see. He is one of only two entrants with a win at Churchill and will get the services of one Calvin Bo-rail. If he wasn’t trained by a trainer who is 0 for 24 at the Derby, he could be the favorite. In all seriousness, this is a serious contender. Not only does he have a five-length win in Churchill’s juvenile Jockey Cup, but he ran creditably in the Tampa Bay Derby and Arkansas Derby where he got his career best Beyer of 98. Pletcher’s Derby woes will be discussed elsewhere, but we are talking someone who kicked some serious butt in Derby preps and has a 28 percent winning percentge this year. (I must say I feel foolish trying to justify his record as a trainer.)

5) Line of David (John Sadler/Rafael Bejarano) – He is undefeated in three starts since adding blinkers, including the Grade I Arkansas Derby where he ran a 98 in his first start on dirt and in a stake (at odds of 17-1). He is another of the early speed times along with stable mate Sidney’s Candy, although he may be the quickest of the group. He reached the half-mile pole in the Arkansas Derby in 1:10 3/5 before holding on to win, running the last 3/8 in 38 3/5. One word of caution regarding this colt comes from Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch who reported that the colt had to struggle to complete a six furlong work on Monday, although the wet track may have been a factor in his performance. One of the key factors in analyzing Derby entrants is how they work and handle the track. While most of the starters will look good, those who do not get marked down.

6) Stately Victor (Mike Maker/Alan Garcia) – There’s a good reason he was 40-1 winning the Blue Grass at Keeneland. After breaking his maiden on Saratoga’s lawn, he could finish no better than 5th in five subsequent races with a best Beyer of 81. The Blue Grass 94 is his career best, which does not place him far behind the others. The Blue Grass’ value as a Derby prep is becoming a subject of considerable discussion. Although Street Sense was able to parlay a decent run into the roses, few others have come out of this race in recent years and had any impact on the outcome on May’s First Saturday. The colt’s owners are Kentucky’s Attorney General and his father. The younger Conway is running to replace one of the US Senate’s reigning clowns in Jim Bunning (who pitched in the first major league game I ever attended). I think the horse’s victory would be a greater upset than that of the AG in Massachusetts losing to someone whose main accomplishment had been appearing in Cosmopolitan sans visible clothing.

7) American Lion (Eoin Harty/David Flores) – His wire-to-wire win in the Ilinois Derby – his first start on dirt – resulted in a career best Beyer of 98. While he runs near the front, he does not appear to need the lead, but may not be fast enough to stay close to the real burners in here – chasing Sidney’s Candy in Santa Anita’s San Felipe resulted in his only off-the-board finish, a fourth.

8) Dean’s Kitten (Mike Maker/Robby Albarado) – It’s one thing for a California horse to try dirt for the first time in America’s most prestigious race, but why would owners who have raced only in Kentucky, New York and Florida do it? Let me modify that. They did run in an off-the-turf Pilgrim at Belmont in the colt’s only dirt start, finishing last by 33 lengths to a colt named Eskendereya. Even though he won the Lane’s End (on a synthetic track) with a Beyer best of 93, there is simply nothing to recommend this one.

9) Make Music for Me (Alexis Barba/Joel Rosario) – He is the middle of the sandwich in the starting gate of horses with no or poor dirt performances trying to win the most demanding race this country has to offer. He also shares the distiction with Paddy O’Prado of having only one life-time win, and that being a stakes on the grass, where he ran his Beyer top of 93 – his best figure by 10 points. I have a hard time distinguishing among these three and cannot see any of them winning.

10) Paddy O’Prado (Dale Romans/Kent Desormeaux) – I know you “can’t win it if you’re not in it,” but is that a reason to run in the Kentucky Derby? Along with Dean’s Kitten, this is an East Coast horse who has ample opportunity to run on God’s good real dirt but has spent his career since his debut on grass or phony surfaces. That first start on dirt? Seventh by 11 lengths with a Beyer of 46. He ran second in the Blue Grass which I guess is sufficient reason to come back for this one. His best fig is a 93 on the weeds.

11) Devil May Care (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)(adding blinkers) – The notion of entering the filly became public so late that she was not included as a possibility in the Racing Form’s Saturday edition of Weekend. We can surmise that the reason for the late decision was the declaring of Pletcher’s Eskendereya from the field. She broke her maiden in Saratoga’s slop and won Belmont’s Grade I Frizette before joining a long list of equines who did not transfer dirt form to the fake surface at Santa Anita. Her return to the races as a sophomore did not exactly scream out “Kentucky Derby” after she finished fifth, 13 lengths in arrears as the odds-on choice. She rebounded nicely in the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream, winning and running a faster time (with a 100 Beyer) than Ice Box‘s Florida Derby on the same card. As many learned last year, “running like a girl” can mean finishing in front of the best boys in the world. It happens all the time in Europe.

12) Conveyance (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia) – Will this colt be going to the lead? Is the Pope in serious denial? In five career starts, he has trailed only one horse, that being Endorsement who finished in front of him in the Sunland Park Derby. This guy is going to be a serious player, even if it is limited to setting a torrid pace setting up the late runners. No one – not Lookin At Lucky or Sidney’s Candy (or even Eskendereya) – has three Beyers 96 or higher.

13) Jackson Bend (Nick Zito/Mike Smith) – Can you guess who is one of only three entrants with a triple digit Beyer and the only one to do it at two? That’s right, it is this one. He was a highly regarded two-year old, if your circle of regard was limited to Florida-breds in restricted stakes. In truth, he has not been that bad facing open company, running second in three graded stakes this year, most recently a 10-length defeat to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial. His top fig this year is only a 93, the second-lowest of the field, and he is another who likes to run near the front. Neither his figs nor his running style are ones likely to be felicitious in this year’s edition. One should never discount, however, trainer Zito’s ability to get horses to run big in major races.

14) Mission Impazible (Todd Pletcher/Rajev Maragh) – It is hard to get overly excited about this one, although he can also not be ruled out. After twice racing in April as a juvenile, including a third in a graded stake, he took the rest of the year off to come back in January at Gulfstream. He followed that effort up with a decent 4th in Oaklawn’s Southwest before winning the Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds, achieving his Beyer top of 94.

15) Discreetly Mine (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) – Yet another that does not get the blood flowing, but who cannot be tossed as an impossibility. He had a decent juvenile campaign, breaking his maiden at the Spa (beating Super Saver) before finishing second in Belmont’s Futurity and Champagne. He won the Risen Star at the Fairgrounds before faltering as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby, finishing 4th by 1 1/4 lengths to Mission Impazible. His Beyer top is a 94 in the Risen Star.

16) Awesome Act (Jeremy Noseda/Julian Leparoux) – The other nominee, along with Ice Box, for this year’s wise guy horse. He began his career across the pond where he was so undistinguished he went off at 32 to 1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf for God’s sake. He did finish a close fourth but then began a dirt career. He won Aqueduct’s inner turf Gotham before joining the list of Eskendereya’s distanced opponents. His Beyer top is a 98 in the Gotham. Trainer Noseda has had a difficult job training the horse, having been stranded in Europe because of the Eyjafjallajỗỗkul volcano.

17) Dublin (Wayne Lukas/Terry Thompson) – His career has been marked by constant hype since winning Saratoga’s Hopeful as the favorite, making him the traditional “Derby favorite” off a 7 furlong race in September. Since then, here have been his trouble lines: “drifted wide no bid,” “no response,” “rank early” and “weakened” until he achieved a “not enuf” in just missing in the Arkansas Derby. I had dismissed him initially, but the more I look at his past performances, the more I think he is capable of springing the upset. He has hit the board in all three Derby preps this year, running Beyers of 97, 93, 96.

18) Backtalk (Tom Amoss/Miguel Mena) – He not only has not hit a triple digit Beyer, he hasn’t met the double digit 88 for a speed figure. Although he won Saratoga’s Sanford Stakes – as the favorite, no less – and ran a decent 4th in the Hopeful, he simply has not progressed as a three-year old. His career best fig of 87 was run in the slop in a minor stake at Delta Downs. Most recently, he ran a 75 in finishing 14 lengths behind American Lion in the Illinois Derby. He is, however, the only entrant beside Super Saver with a win at CD, and this guy has two.

19) Homeboykris (Rick Dutrow/Ramon Dominguez) – How good are my prognostication skills? I used to hope every year that the Yankees would fire Joe Torre who is one of the owners of this colt. Why did I want Torre fired? I figured it would screw up the Yankees. Back to the matter at hand. This entrant has even less chance at winning than the Sox did in the 2004 ALCS when Mariano was on the mound, three outs away from a sweep. He does have a Grade I win to his credit, but it was the October 10 Champagne where he got his Beyer top of 89. Since then, he has been winless, most recently in a February 27 allowance. Are there any positives? Of course. Trainer Dutrow – he of Big Brown fame – said that all the horse “needs is hands.” While that seems unlikely – or not particularly useful for a horse – Dutrow was referring to those on the arms of Dominguez.

20) Sidney’s Candy (John Sadler/Joe Talamo) – He swept Santa Anita’s Derby preps, finishing with an impressive front-running score in the Santa Anita Derby in which he beat the much-troubled Lookin At Lucky by 6. As one of only three entrants with a triple digit Beyer – albeit a “scraping the paint” 100 – he must be considered a top challenger. He does, however, possess two big negatives – never having run on the dirt, and being part of what figures to be a hot pace along with a slew of other speed types. I tend to discount the former. Just as happened last year, horses leaving California for the first time ran well on dirt surfaces in preps. A bigger concern from my perspective is that a passel o’ speed is going to enervate them all, setting the race up for someone coming frm off the pace. This is not the post position one would hope for with a front running horse. If Talamo has to use too much of his horse in clearing the field, that could seal this one’s fate. Along with the post drawn by Lookin At Lucky, my inclination to wager on him has been tempered by the post.

ANALYSIS

Beyer Speed Figures

For regular readers of this publication (at least those who do not limit themselves to the cat’s selections), you know I place a high value on Beyer speed figures in assessing the relative merits of participants in a race. The distribution of top Beyers in this year’s field constitutes a remarkable statistical convergence. I looked at the best Beyers earned on dirt in an entrant’s last two races. Eleven of the sixteen who have raced on dirt had figures between 97 and 100. Over half the field have numbers that are practically identical. Three more have a top fig that is either 93 or 94, and two have 87 or 88. The four non-dirt horses have top figs of 93 or 94 on a synthetic surface or grass. Since a young horse approaching a top effort can increase a Beyer top by 10 or more points, I do not think Beyers are an important consideration this year. As I noted at the outset, this looks much more like a Grade III event than America’s premier race. I am not sure how different that is than any other year. As Andy Beyer pointed out in the Wednesday Racing Form, only three of the 19 starters in last year’s event won a race after the Derby – and that three does not include the winner.

Dirt versus synthetics

As noted in the discussion of Sidney’s Candy, I am not sure the transfer of a horse with only synthetic form going to dirt is as significant as going the other way. If the last two Breeders’ Cup taught us anything, you cannot assume that dirt form will carry over to a synthetic. This year alone, however, American Lion, Conveyance, Line Of David and Lookin At Lucky (with Noble’s Promise a head back) each won a Derby prep in their first start ever on dirt. Last year, Pioneerof the Nile would have been the winner but for 50-1 shot Mine That Bird, and he had never raced on dirt. Although I have learned (the hard way) not to bet dirt form on a synthethic surface, I am starting to believe the obverse is not the case.

Todd Pletcher

Had Eskendereya made it to the starting gate, the amount of type spilled on Todd Pletcher’s 0 for 24 record in the Derby would have filled a lake. Guess what? If he wins this year, his number of “losers” will still increase to 27. The simple fact is that of those 24 who did not win, there were several years when he had multiple entries (as with this year’s four). Rarely did he have a highly regarded horse, and I do not think he ever had the favorite. Two of those non-winners, by the way, ran second at huge odds. In other words, I do not think his record in the Derby should be a negative handicapping factor. Indeed, his overall record, including those in Derby preps, should be given positive consideration. Perhaps an even more remarkable statistic is that of Bob Baffert. According to Horse Racing TV (HRTV), Bob Baffert’s poorest finish from seven starters is a fifth. Who was that off-the-board runner? Point Given.

The uncoupled entry

One of the more unusual handicapping theories is picking the more lightly regarded part of a trainer’s entries. Since coupling horses has been significantly diminished, if not eliminated, in stakes races, it is remarkable how often the higher priced part of the uncoupled entry wins. Real Quiet would be one example of this in the Derby – I think Baffert had the favorite that year. Another example would be Grindstone – although in that year he was coupled with Wayne Lukas’ more highly regarded entrant. This year, we have several possibilities to apply this theory. For Baffert, we have Conveyance uncoupled with Lookin At Lucky. Nick Zito has Jackson Bend going with Ice Box. John Sadler is also in the act with Line of David running with second morning line choice Sidney’s Candy. Even Mike Maker has two, although it would be hard to identify the less regarded part of the Dean’s Kitten/Stately Victor combo. Finally, Todd Pletcher has co-third choice Devil May Care entered along with Super Saver (15-1 morning line), Mission Impazible (20-1) and Discreetly Mine (30-1).

Likely pace scenario

There has already been much discussion of the probability of a furious pace scenario, with several out there winging on the front end. This normally means that the race is set up for a horse coming from off the pace or a deep closer. Sometimes the expected speed duel does not materialize because one of the projected participants runs into difficulty, or one of the expected pace setters proves to be the speed-of-the-speed and gets an uncontested lead. Before the gate is even loaded, we have already had the former, with Sydney’s Candy drawing post position 20. I have long maintained that a superior jockey or horse (see Big Brown) can overcome this problem, but here we have the inexperienced Joe Talamo and a horse who is not a certainty for the Hall of Fame. It is impossible to appreciate the scene at Churchil for the Derby if you have not been there, but when you have more than 100,000 fans ginned up – in a manner of speaking – after the playing of My Old Kentucky Home screaming, one has to wonder how Talamo doesn’t try to capture the moment by gunning his mount to the lead, seriously compromising his chances.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

For first-time readers, I have a cat, Barton – named after the first Triple Crown winner Sir Barton – who has demonstrated some success in picking winners of Triple Crown races, particularly the Derby. Recently he has not been successful or interested – not that I am one to throw stones.

Since I departed the ranks of those gainfully employed, Barton and his brother Fager (yes, named after that one) have viewed my constant presence around the house as a much more effective means of catering to their particular needs which, after all, are not that complicated. One of those needs is a convenient lap in which to sleep or receive the deference due. Even though I have been working on this for the better part of two days, Barton only climbed on to my lap once and purred loudly as I wrote about one entrant. OK, enough drama – who was it? Line of David, whose sire is by Tale of the Cat.

WHO DO I LIKE?

I realize fully there is considerably less interest in my pick than Barton’s. I wish I could be as definitive as a cat, but I think this year is incredibly competitive. Adhering to the adage “make wagers, not picks,” I cannot go with any of the five projected in the morning line to be Lookin At Lucky, Sidney’s Candy, Awesome Act, Devil May Care and Ice Box. I am not saying they cannot win, but we should be able to get a good price in this year’s field, although the three co-choice prices of 10-1 are not too shabby. If I could only bet one, I would go with Super Saver.

I wrote the preceding paragraph on Wednesday. Since then, there have been two significant developments. The first is that heavy rain is falling at Churchill Downs as of 8:00 a.m. on the First Saturday in May. The second is the absolutely whacko betting (from my perspective) that has already occurred. The favorite is Super Saver (sic) at 7-1. Lookin At Lucky is 9-1 and four others are 11-1: Ice Box, Devil May Care, Sidney’s Candy and Paddy O’Prado (sic again). The longest shot on the board? Discreetly Mine at 41-1.

The odds are easier to deal with than the weather. The weather throws the entire situation into a state approaching chaos. While some entrants have experience on a sloppy or muddy track, most do not, and many of the West Coast runners may never have even trained on such a surface (except at CD this week). Another analytical method are Tomlinson mud ratings published by The Daily Racing Form. Although I think Tomlinson ratings are suspect, they tend to be more reliable when the number is high, indicating that the horse’s pedigree indicates an affinity for wet tracks. Those with particularly high numbers (over 400 on a scale going to 500) are Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Line Of David, Awesome Act and American Lion. Those with past wins on sloppy tracks include Super Saver, Devil May Care and Backtalk. Paddy O’Prado, who is being widely touted for his outstanding work on the sloppy Churchill Down surface last week, actually ran poorly in an actual race on the surface, running a 46 Beyer in his first career race.

The surprising tote board, at least early Saturday morning, also must alter one’s judgment. Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy become much more appealing, while Super Saver becomes considerably less so. While the latter’s favoritism may be a tribute to the influence of The Blue Ribbon Analysis, it more likely reflects the presence of Calvin Bo-rail. Paddy O’Prado’s relatively short price is likely a reflection of that great work on a sloppy track. I haven’t seen prices on those not mentioned above, but among the group that may warrant a wager are Noble’s Promise, American Lion, Conveyance, Awesome Act and Dublin.

BELMONT STAKES 2009

Final

When? Saturday, June 6

Where? ABC-TV at 6:27 ET

“No comment.”

– Calvin Borel

All of the factual information contained herein is from other sources: Daily Racing Form, The New York Times, and The Saratogian. The analytical material, including that which turns out to be correct, is mine unless otherwise noted.

How jacked is New York for the Belmont Stakes? On the day before the race, The New York Times had no articles on it. The Times does a very good job in covering horse racing, yet on the day before downstate New York’s biggest race, they had no coverage – none, zero, nada, zip, nil. (Interesting how all of these words begin with “n” or “z.”) In the days leading up to the Derby and the Preakness, they often had two – and sometimes three – pieces. For the Apple’s big event (horse racing wise) – none. On a day they did cover the race, the paper-of-record predicted that attendance would be down between 30,000 to 40,000 from the originally anticipated crowd. That would be even more than the fall-off in the Preakness caused by Pimlico’s decision to bar the BYOB tradition of prior runnings.

Why the drop? In case you haven’t heard, there is neither a Triple Crown on the line, nor is Rachel Alexandra, the Preakness winner, appearing to challenge Mine That Bird. Now, I personally think a crowd of 50,000 for a race at Belmont for a not particularly inspiring edition of the Third Jewel is not all that bad, particularly when one considers that the typical Belmont Saturday crowd is lucky to hit five figures. There is a tremendous card, although we can assume that ABC will emulate NBC and not televise the Manhattan, a Grade I race that drew a field of 13. For my rant on this topic, see my blog entry for May 17.

Here is the field:

1) Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer/Garrett Gomez) – In his lone start on a dirt track – albeit the sloppy Churchill surface (we need an acronym for this observation since it will come up again, so let’s use the snappy ATSCS – he ran his lowest Beyer this year (86) after performing decently on California’s synthetic surfaces. So his fast dirt form is still unknown, making him a not unattractive pick if his morning line of 10-1 holds up.

2) Dunkirk (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) – He was well-fancied in the Derby going off at 5-1, but had a fair amount of trouble (“stumbled, steadied”) in finishing 11th, 19 lengths back. His prior dirt Beyers (108, 98) are ones that warrant serious consideration, but he will be an unattractive 4-1, if not lower.

3) Mr. Hot Stuff (Eoin Harty/Edgar Prado) – He is very similar in his Beyer profile to Chocolate Candy, including the designation of ATSCS, with decent performances in California, but a 15th at Churchill. I find it odd that he continued to work on Keeneland’s polytrack rather than take a spin at Belmont. His connections are top-notch, but it is hard to pick him to win.

4) Summer Bird (Tim Ice/Kent Desormeaux) – I started to like this one a little bit for the Derby, where he ran 6th, after a nice finish in the Arkansas Derby. He is sired by the Belmont bomber Birdstone, so his pedigree may not be an obstacle for this event.

5) Luv Gov (Wayne Lukas/Miguel Mena) – A maiden winner who was not embarrassed in his 8th place Preakness finish (of 13 entrants), he appears to be an unlikely winner. D. Wayne said that was his Belmont prep. Even though Lukas is one of the most successful trainers in history, his next graded stakes winner will be his first since 2007.

6) Charitable Man (Kiaran McLaughlin/Alan Garcia) – I am developing a very bad habit of betting any horse with this trainer/rider combo, no matter how much they appear not to fit. In fact, the more unlikely the fit, the better I like it. This guy (the colt, that is) definitely fits. He is 3-for-3 on dirt, including two graded stakes wins at Belmont. His distance breeding is impeccable (Lemon Drop Kid/Saint Ballado mare), and has trained nicely since his May 9 win in the Peter Pan.

7) Mine That Bird (Chip Woolley/Calvin Bo-rail) – He proved he was for real with his dramatic Preakness finish. Borel’s “no comment” was in response to whether the gelding would have passed Rachel if the Preakness were a little bit longer. My guess is that his response would have been “No!!” were the filly entered. Borel is trying to make history – again – by becoming the first jock ever to win a year’s Triple Crown races riding different animals.

8) Flying Private (Wayne Lukas/Julien Leparoux) – He followed his last-place Derby finish with a decent 4th in the Preakness. He is one of two Lukas entrants and, if there is going to be a major upset, this colt could be the one.

9) Miner’s Escape (Nick Zito/Jose Lezcano) – One of three entrants making their Triple Crown debut (Charitable Man and the next guy are the others), he appears to be clearly overmatched. That is exactly what one would have said (and I did) about Nick Zito’s two recent Belmont winners.

10) Brave Victory (Nick Zito/Rajiv Maragh) – Ditto, and this one doesn’t have the breeding.

SELECTIONS

You have two horses with good form on synthetic surfaces and unimpressive races on a sloppy track – Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff – who appear to be indistinguishable, and it is difficult to make a case for either. There is the seemingly overmatched group, each of whom is trained by Hall of Famers Lukas and Zito – Luv Gov, Flying Private, Miner’s Escape and Brave Victory. Then there is the group that has shown definite promise on dirt – Dunkirk, Summer Bird and Charitable Man, any one of whom could win and not be a shocker. Finally, there is a classic winner and an excellent second in a second one – Mine That Bird. I’ll be rooting for him and picking him. I think Charitable Man is the most likely upsetter, with Summer Bird a minor bomber and Flying Private a major one.

WHO DOES THE CAT LIKE?

Barton, the handicapping cat, has shown no interest in this year’s Triple Crown races. He cannot stand going to the vet, and I am beginning to suspect that he is expressing an aversion to the drug use in thoroughbred racing. We can hope there will be improvements in this area for next year’s Crown, but I am not holding my breath.

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PREAKNESS STAKES 2009

Final

When? Saturday at about 6:00

Where? NBC-TV

“Usually the police are chasing me, not escorting me. The last time I ended up in jail.”

-Chip Woolley on his escort to Pimlico

All of the factual information contained herein is from other sources: Daily Racing Form, New York Times, Saratogian, Thoroughbred Times, and Blood Horse. The analytical material, including that which turns out to be correct, is mine unless otherwise noted.

This year’s Preakness has been filled with controversy. Is it whether a filly should challenge the boys? Is it appropriate for the connections of some boys to play games to keep the girl out of the clubhouse? No, it was Pimlico’s decision to prevent patrons from BYOBing to the infield. Interestingly, they did not do so the year following one customer’s decision to run out on to the track during the running of a race and get in with the ones who were supposed to be there. Nor did they do so because of the widespread knowledge that the Preakness infield behavior could rival that of both the Derby and the Indy 500 (is there an infield at Indy?) No, it was because video of said conduct was being circulated on YouTube.

One of the more interesting events is the Porta-John racing. Now as my mind went wild with how one would race a portable toilet, it appears that the race takes place on top of a row of the structures, with other patrons either spraying beer on the contestants or throwing full cans of beer at them. The ban has inspired an effort to boycott the Preakness, and as one young man said, “It used to be our thing, and now it has a more corporate feel to it.” He is absolutely right. Who among us has not come upon a line of porta-johns and not wanted to climb up on the first one to challenge the times of some of the great ones of the sport? If the attitude of Pimlico existed in Greece in the 19th century, we would not have the Olympic Games. OK, enough of this nonsense, what about the race?

The match-up between the filly and the “unexpected” Derby winner has me pretty excited. The filly is a great story in her own right – she was 27-1 in her first race where she beat only three others – but the gelding is the stuff of movies. The trainer is walking around on crutches because of a motorcycle accident that has also interfered with his bareback riding. The trainer and owner “met” at a bar fight where they seemed to be more than disinterested observers. Their post-Derby press conference is one of the most interesting I have ever seen. The trainer and owners came across as surly, although I suspected there was a reason. I think they were so shocked that they won, they could not deal with it. They had that “deer in the headlight look” that often accompanies unexpected newsmakers. Their stated objective in coming to Churchill was the dream of a 6th place [sic] finish. I am happy to note that the initial impression they left does not appear to reflect the reality. First of all, trainer Woolley made a big point of thanking the gelding’s trainer in Canada for the horse’s success. It may not seem like a big deal, but it is a graciousness you do not often see in any endeavor, let alone horse racing. The day after the race, the connections went out to the statue of Barbaro and spent 90 minutes giving those waiting in line roses from the garland that Mine That Bird wore. That brought a tear to my eye. So I understand the desire for Rachel to put on a show, but I think the Derby winner coming through in the Preakness would also be a great moment.

We also have the added feature of the Derby-winning jockey getting off the horse to move to another in the field. There are a lot of events that haven’t happened in a long time – no unraced two-year old has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882, no filly has won the Preakness since 1924, etc. But this is the first time the Derby winner’s jock moved to a competitor. After he won the Oaks, Calvin Borel said that Rachel Alexandra was the best horse he had ever been on. Since he had ridden Street Sense to his Derby win two years earlier, I was kind of surprised. But he repeated it the day after this year’s Derby. OK, I believe him.

THE FIELD

1) Big Drama (David Fawkes/John Velazquez) – Only Rachel Alexandra has matched this colt’s Beyer of 108, although she ran hers going a route of ground. He is a very intriguing possibility, being a disqualification away from entering this event with a six-race winning streak. Said disqual came in his only start as a three-year old, the 7-furlong Swale Stakes at Gulfstream in March, where he set the track record and did not win. He twice won stakes at 1 1/16 miles as a juvenile, including the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot. He has an ascending Beyer pattern over seven lifetime starts, culminating in the 108. The biggest question, of course, is whether a single start as a three-year old – and that one at 7 furlongs – gives him a sufficient base to compete here.

2) Mine That Bird (Chip Woolley/Mike Smith) – While I am not going to say this gelding’s Derby win was as impressive as the effort turned in by Rachel Alexandra the day before, it sure as hell was impressive. This guy was waaaay back for a good part of the race. When he finally kicked in, he left his competitors looking like they were in quicksand, not mud, drawing off to a 6 3/4 length win, the biggest winning margin since Assault in his 1946 Triple Crown year. How does a horse that sold for $9,500 as a yearling, finish last in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and 4th in the ungraded Sunland Derby, rock the racing world with such a dominating performance? You got me. It could be mediocre competition, but no one looked more mediocre than he going in. It could have been the track condition – a sealed sloppy track – but why did no other entrant handle it as well. It could have been a pronounced rail bias, something known to everyone watching the telecast, but apparently not to the jockeys of Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem who were treating the inside as though it were saturated with the swine flu virus. The other possibility is that is an animal who came into his true form at the absolute perfect time, particularly if you bet on him. He was the Canadian two-year old champion, and was purchased for the Derby after that season for $400K. His new owners were not pointing for the one in Kentucky, but the Sunland Derby in racing hotbed New Mexico. One suspects they are not unhappy with the outcome.

3) Musket Man (Derek Ryan/Eibar Coa) – The third-place Derby horse has shown that he is – as they say in the business – a “useful” horse. He is now 5 for 7 lifetime, with wins in the Tampa Bay (Grade 3) and Illinois Derby (Grade 2). If you believe, as I do, that the healthy 3-year old boys are a mediocre lot – with the possible exception of the Derby winner – there is no reason this one cannot carry his mediocrity to a win in the Preakness.

4) Luv Gov (D. Wayne Lukas/Jamie Theriot) – There is a man in America praying quite heavily that this bomber does not do what Mine That Bird did in the Derby. If you are Elliott Spitzer, you are having nightmares about waking up Sunday morning and seeing the headlines in the Post and Daily News. His prayers should be answered, however, because this race is being used – and I am not making this up – as a Belmont Stakes prep. Had the Barbaro Stakes not been discontinued, he would have gone there. (Speaking of the Barbaro Stakes, this formerly was known as the Sir Barton Stakes. I will have to go back and check to see if Barton (the cat) felt so dissed after his namesake’s losing the stake in his honor that his handicapping prowess has tailed off. I have yet to work on my excuse.) But, back to the race. Trainer Lukas has one of the most remarkable streaks in Triple Crown history. He trained six consecutive winners over three years – with four different horses. I put that up there with Woody Stephens’ five consecutive Belmonts, but you never see it mentioned. Now? He has not won any of the 48 graded stakes he entered over the last two years. The colt required 10 starts to break his maiden (on Derby Day at Churchill, no less) and appears to be quite overmatched.

5) Friesan Fire (Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez) – Going in to the Derby, I thought he was one of the three best colts in the division. When two of them declared from the field because of injury, he seemed to be the most likely winner. His chances were compromised when his departure from the gate resulted in cuts on his legs and a trail of blood over Churchill Downs. His Louisiana Derby Beyer of 104 on a sloppy track represents the third highest in the field. Nonetheless, there are legitimate questions about his quality, even if he did have a Derby excuse. I am also concerned about his level of fitness since he came into the Derby off a seven-week break, and could not have gotten much from his Derby run when his jockey refused to push him when it became clear he was going nowhere.

6) Terrain (Albert Stall/Jeremy Rose) – I could not figure out why he was here. But, he did run 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, ahead of the last place finisher, Mine That Bird, a head behind Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby, and a good 4th in the Blue Grass Stakes. I’ve learned my lesson (for now) – I am not saying he cannot win.

7) Papa Clem (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) – This is another colt who has demonstrated his honesty. After second-place finishes to Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire, he won the Arkansas Derby (Beyer 101), before finishing fourth in the Derby, not far behind Pioneerof the Nile and Musket Man.

8) General Quarters (Tom McCarthy/Julien Leparoux) – Little did we know that the Derby’s feel good story of an improbable dream would be upstaged by one wildly more improbable. At least this colt came to Churchill after a win in one of the major Derby preps, Keeneland’s Blue Grass. His 10th place Derby finish, 17 1/2 lengths back of the winner, did little to inspire one to think that the Preakness will be his race. Keep in mind, however, that he does own one of the field’s highest Beyers on a fast dirt track, a 102 in the 1 1/16 mile Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay.

9) Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) – The big question about him going to the Derby still is there. Can a colt with demonstrated proficiency on a synthetic track carry that form to a conventional dirt surface? We do not know unless a sloppy sealed track at Churchill Downs is your definition of conventional. Had Mine That Bird been blocked instead of squeezing through on the rail, this would have been the Derby winner with the lowest Beyer ever recorded (95) for America’s greatest race. He figures to be a low price – perhaps even favored over the Derby winner – and I am still not willing to get on board.

10) Flying Private (Wayne Lukas/Alan Garcia) – After finishing last in the Derby at odds of 47-1, why not go to the Preakness? His Racing Form commentary reads thusly: “five wide into the first turn when within striking distance, held on well for five furlongs and stopped.” Since the Preakness is run at 9 1/2 furlongs, his Derby effort is not suggesting he will be wearing the Black-Eyed Susans. The only reason to select him is if you think this is the year for absolute bombers winning each of the Triple Crown races.

11) Take the Points (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado) – He should be a factor in this race, possibly compromising the chances of Rachel Alexandra. He figures to be going for the early lead, along with Big Drama, bringing the filly along in their wake. I had started to write that it is hard to see him as a serious contender, until I noticed that his Beyer top of 99 was earned on a dirt track. His declining figs since were two races on Santa Anita’s poly, including a good 4th in the Santa Anita Derby.

12) Tone It Down (William Komlo/Mario Pino) – His claim to fame is finishing third in the Preakness prep, the $75,000 Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico. To say that field was nondescript would be charitable. No one had ever won a stakes race of any caliber, and the one that had participated in a graded stakes lost by 26 lengths.

13) Rachel Alexandra (Steve Asmussen/Calvin Borel) – That was one jaw dropping win in the Kentucky Oaks. At the quarter pole she was in second. A half-mile later she was in front by more than 20, running as if she were out for a morning gallop. Her Beyer of 108 – and, again, she was not running hard – has not been exceeded by any of the boys she will be facing on Saturday. Only five of her Preakness competitors have run a triple-digit Beyer, and each has only done it once. She has done it in her last four races, all stakes (three graded), with a combined margin of victory of almost 40 lengths. So no filly of her generation is going to beat her now, and now we will learn if colt or gelding can do it. I do not think any colt can, but maybe the gelding will. The one possible chink in her armor is that her two career losses each occurred when she was coming into a race after a 15-day break, the same gap she will be facing here. Those two losses came as a two-year old, and she is clearly a much better three-year old.

SELECTIONS

I am looking forward to this race as much as any in recent years. The Mine That Bird/Rachel Alexandra match-up is tantalizing in so many ways. Even if that duel does not materialize, will the filly enter the stratosphere with a performance like her Oaks? Or, is Mine That Bird going to captivate the nation at a time we could use some escapism? If neither is the winner, I think almost anyone could win this event – but that just adds to the intrigue.

Quite frankly, I have a difficult, if not impossible, task of separating Musket Man, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, General Quarters, and Pioneerof the Nile. I honestly do not see how one could make a strong case for any one of them over the other.

Of the non-Derby entrants that do not have the first name of a woman, I think the most intriguing one is Take the Points. I look past those two synthetic Beyers to a 99 on fast dirt and think this is one who could make a move forward. I can see Big Drama holding on for a piece, but not the W.

I am going with the adage “pick bets, not horses.” If Mine That Bird is near his morning line of 6-1, I will bet him to win.

WHO IS THE CAT GOING WITH?

For first-time readers, I have a cat named Barton, who was named after the first Triple Crown winner. Early on, he demonstrated an interest in handicapping. He once took a stack of losing parimutuel tickets from my dresser and spread them on my half of the bed, in what I construed to be either a taunting gesture or a remonstrance. Next he started sitting on the monitor while I worked on the Blue Ribbon Analysis. Before the 2003 Derby, he started jumping up and knocking down the refrigerator magnet for the New York-bred program. He was telling me to pay attention to Funny Cide. Although his method of making selections changed, he started a streak of successfully picking winners. Lately, he has been off (although I am not one to cast stones in this area). For this year’s Preakness, he has displayed little interest, and I would not be surprised if he does not even watch the race.

So, you are really on your own now.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2009

Final Edition

The storied Blue Ribbon Analysis is inching towards the 21st century by posting its content on-line for the first time. My hope was to be doing a regular blog during the prep season, but I have too much going on this year to do it. Perhaps it will happen after the Derby. I also hope to do regular blog postings about horse racing, as well as other matters, so check back to see if I succeed. At the outset, let me identify the sources of the factual information contained here. The Daily Racing Form is my primary source, and I have also used material from The New York Times, Albany’s Times Union, a Derby seminar hosted by the National Museum of Horse Racing, and the Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac. All of the analytical material, including that which turns out to be accurate, is mine unless noted otherwise. I have had mixed feelings about this year’s version of the race. Initially, I thought there were only three realistic possibilities for winning. There are, however, a number of interesting stories – many more than in recent years – making for intriguing possibilities. We have Sheik ‘Mo from Dubai sending over two entrants, each of whom has already experienced success stateside. Will Pioneerof the Nile emulate the West Coast colts he has beaten and achieve success running on dirt for the first time? Is Dunkirk a special animal who can become the first horse in two centuries to win without having raced at two? Will Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez recover from last year’s traumatic Derby and win with a colt who has not raced in seven weeks? And last, but certainly not least, will the retired school principal from Louisville, of all places, win the Kentucky Derby with the only horse he trains? I think I know what the post-race buzz will be, however, no matter who wins the Derby. Will Rachel Alexandra take on the boys in the Preakness? I just witnessed one of those rare jaw-dropping experiences – a filly who won the Kentucky Oaks by more than 20 lengths as if she were out for a pleasant gallop. Even as I write this, the HRTV commentators are discussing the fact that she is not nominated to the Triple Crown and would have to be supplemented. But, no matter what happens on Saturday, that winner will be immediately confronting the question of whether he is better than she. And, in late breaking news – I have always wanted to write that – the morning line favorite and my pick to win, I Want Revenge, has been scratched because he jogged sore this morning. He now joins A.P. Indy and Buddha as morning line favorites scratching the morning of the race. There is a lot going on in the sport of thoroughbred racing, almost all of it negative. I will save those rants and raves on the state of the game for the Preakness Analysis, although I may also start to blog it. This is a new medium for me, and I hope to get the hang of it quickly enough. Here is this year’s likely field, with trainer and jockey: 1) West Side Bernie (Kelly Breen/Stewart Elliott) – His claim to fame is running 2nd in I Want Revenge‘s Wood, missing by 1 1/2 lengths with a Beyer of 101. He has not crossed the finish line first in the 7 months since his victory in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile on Turfway’s synthetic surface. Although his best Beyers have been on dirt, he does not appear to have the class to win this. 2) Musket Man (Derek Ryan/Eibar Coa) – His only loss in six career starts was by 6 1/2 to General Quarters in Tampa Bay’s Sam F. Davis. He came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby and Illinois Derby, making him the only two-time Derby winner in the field, not all that bad for a colt who brought only $15,000 at the Keeneland September yearlings sale. While his last Beyer improved to a 98, it is hard to see a son of Yonaguska out of a Fortunate Prospect mare relishing a mile and one-quarter. 3) Mr. Hot Stuff (Eoin Harty/John Velazquez) – He needed five starts to break his maiden, where he also ran his Beyer top of 96. In his last two starts, he ran 3rd on Santa Anita’s synthetic in the Sham and Santa Anita Derby where he finished only 2 lengths in arrears to Pioneerof the Nile. The only reason to pick him for the win is the hope that he will improve significantly on dirt, a surface he has never tried. 4) Advice (Todd Pletcher/Rene Douglas) – It was a big deal not that long ago when Trainer Todd had five entrants in this race. This year he has three, and it is perhaps a measure of his chances to break an 0 for 21 Derby schneid that he is not getting much buzz. Not only that, but his main man, John Velazquez, is not even riding for him. It is unlikely this colt will be his ticket to the winner’s circle. His only dirt start was a 5th in the Sunland Park Derby (77 Beyer), albeit with a troubled start, and his breeding of Chapel Road by a Hennessy mare is not exactly screaming, “give me 10 furlongs.” 5) Hold Me Back (Bill Mott/Kent Desormeaux) – Every negative I just noted about the preceding entrant’s race record applies to this guy. His only dirt start, in the Remsen, resulted in a fifth place finish and a 77 Beyer. His breeding, however, is of a different sort, being by Giant’s Causeway from an Unbridled Song mare. I must be candid that I love Bill Mott as a trainer, and this entrant is not harmed my Desormeaux in the irons. A win would be a major upset, but a finish on the board is not out of the question. 6) Friesan Fire (Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez) – I had kind of forgotten about this one. He last ran March 14 in a dominating win on a sloppy Fair Grounds race track. Trainer Jones apparently intended that this would be his last race before the big one, even though it is seven weeks out. He does have four excellent works since then, including a blistering 57 4/5 at Churchill. Trainer Jones does know how to get a horse ready for the Derby, having finished second in the last two runnings, including the ill-fated Eight Belles. While that fast work on April 27 was reminiscent of the much criticized fast one put in by Hard Spun, keep in mind that that entrant beat them all, except, of course, for one. One interesting negative I heard – and this is why horse racing is so infinitely fascinating – was advanced by Jean Wood, a commentator at the National Museum of Racing’s Derby seminar. She had spoken with a trainer who thought that A.P. Indy‘s run well at the Fair Grounds, but often do not replicate that form elsewhere. (Speaking of fascinating, Saratoga Springs, which regularly has snow on the ground well into April, was experiencing the most beautiful day of the year this past Saturday. Nonetheless, 210 people from a small town showed up to hear about the Derby.) The colt has steadily increasing Beyers this year, culminating with a 104 on the Fair Grounds slop. It is a pattern I like to see with a Derby contender, making this guy one of my real strong possibilities. His biggest negative is not having yet run beyond 1 1/6 miles, but I am letting the trainer’s recent Derby experience offset that factor. 7) Papa Clem (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) – This is an interesting animal. He has been running competitively with the best of this year’s sophomore crop, running second in the Robert Lewis, splitting Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge, being second best to Friesan Fire‘s Louisiana Derby romp, and then winning the Arkansas Derby where he beat one-time Derby fave Old Fashioned (who came out of the race with an injury). His best Beyer is on the dirt, a 101 in the Hot Springs event, and he has the breeding (Smart Strike, Belong to Me mare) to suggest he could be a significant factor in this race. One troubling consideration, however, is his training at Churchill. He apparently worked a very disappointing 7 furlongs and had to come back the Thursday before the main event to breeze an even 34 seconds. If you think Friesan Fire‘s 57 and change on Monday is a cause for concern, you cannot like this guy’s effort. 8) Mine That Bird (Bennie Wooley/Calvin Bo-rail) – How the mighty have fallen. I don’t mean this gelding who has yet to run a Beyer exceeding 81, but jockey Borel, who was the toast of Louisville a mere two years ago with his paint-skimming victory on Street Sense. The jock is the only reason to like this one. I have never heard of the trainer ( a robust 1 for 32 this year), and a horse whose best fig is an 81 is not going to win the Kentucky Derby. 9) Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher/Chris DeCarlo) – He will be a prominent player in this year’s race. Not because you will hear his name mentioned in the stretch call, but because he figures to be flying early. He only lost by a neck to Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby (best Beyer of 90), but this colt has no chance to win, or even hit the board. Indeed, he has a good chance to lengthen Pletcher’s streak of last place finishes to five. 10) Regal Ransom (Saeed bin Suroor/Alan Garcia) – This son of Distorted Humor is a mortal lock to win money for you in this year’s race. Go to Louisville bars on Friday night and bet all comers they cannot identify the top earner in this year’s field. While knowledgeable fans will figure the winner of the UAE Derby is the one, most imbibing wagerers will focus on his 30-1 morning line. Can you make money if you bet on him to win? It is not out of the question. The Sheik of Dubai has vowed he will win America’s most prestigious race. His earlier attempts have not resulted in a finish on the board, but this year could be different. He was the even-money winner in his first start at Saratoga (93 Beyer), beating at least two next-out winners. He went off as the favorite in the Grade 1 Norfolk on Santa Anita’s synthetic surface. After moving his tack to Dubai, he ran 2nd to Desert Party twice before besting him in that Derby. In that last race he earned a Racing Post rating of 112, which I translate to a 100 Beyer. 11) Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer/Mike Smith) – He will get some wise guy play. He not only finished in front of probable favorite I Want Revenge, but closed well to lose by only a length to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby. He has never raced on dirt and, similar to Pioneerof the Nile, one can only play him if one assumes he will improve his best synthetic Beyer (94) by at least 10 points when he makes the surface switch. 12) General Quarters (Thomas McCarthy/Julien Leparoux) – There is one certainty about this team – they will be this year’s “feel good” story. The horse was a Keeneland yearling purchase for only $20,000, and then was claimed in his first start for $20K – from an owner who is a major player and, apparently, one of the least likeable individuals in thoroughbred racing. The colt has gone on to win over $600,000, including W’s in the Sam F. Davis and Keeneland’s Grade 1 Blue Grass. The owner is a retired school principal from – of all places – Louisville, KY. This is not only the only horse he trains, but the colt’s earnings have surpassed the trainer’s combined earnings over the last 19 years. Before acquiring his Derby hopeful, trainer McCarthy had been in the winner’s circle only 13 times in the preceding18 years. It is hard not to root for someone who so loves this sport and has persevered all this time. Can he win and bring a tear to every eye not already moist from the playing of My Old Kentucky Home? No. Winning the synthetic Blue Grass almost guarantees an up-the-track finish in the Derby. The colt’s breeding – sired by Sky Mesa – is likely to come up short over 10 furlongs. 13) I Want Revenge (Jeff Mullins/Joe Talamo) – SCRATCHED In my opinion, no entrant had a more impressive race than this colt’s Wood Memorial. He broke poorly, taking him out of his normal running style, ran into serious traffic as he was about to make his move, and still won easily. His first six races were on southern California artificial surfaces where he demonstrated competence, but had no one saying probable Derby winner. He was twice beaten by Pioneerof the Nile, albeit by small margins. When he headed to New York to run on real dirt, he became a different – dominating – race horse. He won the Gotham by 8 1/2, earning a 113 Beyer. His eventful trip in the Wood resulted in a 103, a remarkable number considering all the trouble he seen. There is nothing not to like about this horse. His jockey, Joe Talamo, on the other hand, has less Kentucky Derby experience than I do. His only exposure was as a one-time race goer, and I have been over 15 times. He does, however, have a considerable weight advantage. As a 19-year old making his first Derby start, one has to be somewhat concerned that the circus atmosphere on Churchill could unnerve him. Trainer Mullins also has some negatives as well, although not of the sort that could harm his colt’s performance. On Wood Memorial day, he was observed injecting another of his horses with a drug, causing the horse to be scratched from the race and Mullins being hit with a suspension. Nothing like yet another drug incident after last year’s steroid controversy to drum up interest in the sport. There is another major negative. One of the owners is IEAH, the oleaginous owners of Big Brown. Last year, I discussed how these guys gave Wall Street a bad name because of their apparent shenanigans when that was their day-time job. That was back in the day, however, before Wall Street gave itself a bad name and, as is now apparent, these clowns were typical of that “profession,” not outliers. 14) Atomic Rain (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo) – Kelly Breen has one less entrant than Bob Baffert, Nick Zito and Wayne Lukas combined? If the race were at Monmouth Park, he might be the post-time favorite, since every horse ridden by Joe Bravo at the Jersey shore is. Ironically, this colt’s only win came at Monmouth in his first career start. He has since been winless, twice losing first level allowance races. He is a great bet to run last. 15) Dunkirk (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado) – I love this talented colt. Not because I think he will win, but because he will attract a lot of the wise guy money, driving up the price on other more likely winners. He is undefeated, with all three wins coming this year. Let me be the first to tell you – no horse has won the Derby without racing as a two-year old since Apollo in 1882. (Apollo, incidentally, is also one of the few geldings to win America’s race.) I used to be a big believer in historical trends being an excellent indicator of Derby success. But the traditional standards have been falling by the wayside – say hello to Strike the Gold (dosage), Funny Cide (gelding and New York bred), Barbaro (no race within four weeks), and Street Sense (only two races as a three-year old). So, I am no longer trapped by history, but I do not think this guy is ready to win this one. From my perspective, he was one very tired animal after making an impressive move in the Florida Derby that fell short of catching Quality Road. He is not one who looked like he was hoping for another furlong. I think another consideration – mentioned by my spouse and breeding expert – is that when owners spend $3.7 mil for a yearling, they are probably thinking Derby, not the Mass Cap, and will enter no matter what. 16) Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) – Let me get something out of the way right off the bat. Is this name so great that you would run two words together to stay within The Jockey Club’s lmit of 18 characters (including spaces)? I find running all the words together tacky enough, but this? The one thing that would salvage this name is if they brought jockey R.L. Ffrench from overseas to ride him. Having said that, your success in betting this race depends on how you assess his chances. He wil be the second or third choice, but has never run on dirt. Among his five synthetic wins are four consecutive ones in either Grade I or Grade 2 events. After the Robert Lewis, where he beat both Papa Clem and I Want Revenge, he was my Derby pick. But then his next two, I thought, were not impressive even though he won both. Much is made of the fact that horses losing to this colt went on to win the two major Derby preps on dirt. I Want Revenge moved east after two losses to Pioneerof the Nile and became a seeming monster. Papa Clem followed the same eastern trek, taking down the Arkansas Derby in the process. Can this colt so the same? Quite frankly, no one knows, least of all me. His top Beyer has been a 96. While I Want Revenge upgraded 21 points to a 113 and then a 103 in his trouble trip Wood, Papa Clem improved ten points to a 101. If you like Pioneerof the Nile, you have to project an improvement of 15 points or more. 17) Summer Bird (Tim Ice/C.R. Rosier) – This colt makes Dunkirk look like a grizzled veteran. While each has only three career starts, this guy didn’t make it to the starting line until March 1. Should he win, you can expect to see half of next year’s field coming into the Derby with only two months of experience. He did run impressively in the Arkansas Derby, closing well to finish 1 1/4 lengths back of Papa Clem, earning a 99 Beyer. Nonetheless, I cannot see such a lightly raced horse wearing roses. 18) Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito/Shaun Bridgmohan) – Unfortunately for his connections, there will be nowhere to hide when you appear before 150,000 fans at the scene and millions more on TV and computer monitors around the world. He took five starts to break his maiden and he has since finished fourth in three straight stakes races. His Beyer top of 90 has been followed with two successive declining numbers. This is not the direction to be moving in for the biggest race in this country. 19) Desert Party (Saeed bin Suroor/Ramon Dominguez) – He is the other part of the uncoupled entry from the sands of Dubai. Purchased as a two-year old for $2.1 million, he won Saratoga’s Sanford as the odds-on choice on a muddy track. After experiencing trouble in the Hopeful, finishing 6th, he moved to Dubai where he twice beat Regal Ransom in preps for the UAE Derby before losing to his stable mate by 1/2 length in the Run for the Oil, earning the equivalent of a 99 Beyer. I think he has a definite shot to make an impression in the Derby and is a threat to hit the board at a square price. 20) Flying Private (Wayne Lukas/Robby Albarado) – There was a time when Wayne Lukas was criticized for running horses in the Derby with the apparent sole intent of keeping his string of consecutive Derby starts intact. He stopped doing it after the immortal Deeds Not Words finished last about 10 years ago. This colt appears to be in that not-so-proud tradition since he appears to have a much better shot of finishing last than first. He hasn’t won in seven starts since breaking his maiden at Saratoga. While he did run a good second in Hold Me Back‘s Lane’s End on polytrack, earning his Beyer top of 94, he was not impressive in a 5th place finish in the Arkansas Derby. SELECTIONS There are two very important factors in arriving at a selection, neither one of which lends itself to analysis until the week of the race. The first is the track condition. As I write this, I am watching the Oaks card where the track is sloppy, with more rain in the forecast. Who will benefit from an off track? We saw what Friesan Fire is capable of when the dirt turns to mud. Others who have run well on an off surface include Nowhere to Hide (at Belmont) and Desert Party (stakes win at the Spa). Those who have displayed a negative affinity are Flying Private (Saratoga) and Join in the Dance (Monmouth and Churchill where he did run 2nd, but with a 51 Beyer). Keep in mind also, that those who have only run on a synthetic surface have not had the opportunity to display form on a wet track. A second measure of likely wet track affinity is in the Tomlinson number, a numerical ranking published in the Daily Racing Form that attempts to predict performance based on pedigree. I have a significant problem with the Tomlinsons because they are based only on the first generation of parents. While they can be accurate when the number is high (indicating possible proficiency on the surface), they often are horrible when the number is low. That, of course, is good if one is looking for a wagering angle if one hopes others are following the low number and discounting a horse’s chances. The only two entrants with comparatively low numbers are Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird, neither of whom I would discount if the track is wet. In other words, I will not be using the Tomlinsons in my handicapping. The second factor that is of crucial importance is how horses are training over the Churchill Downs strip. Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form has shown himself to be a knowledgeable observer over the years. Based on his reporting, I would be concerned about Desert Party, General Quarters, Musket Man, and Summer Bird. Those he found impressive include Advice, Hold Me Back, I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile, Regal Ransom and West Side Bernie. With I Want Revenge out of the race, I think this becomes a much more wide-open event. I was hoping to get a better price on Friesan Fire, but the possibility of a wet track will probably dash those hopes. I think that Regal Ransom is a very live long shot, and that Hold Me Back could be a nice-priced factor in the exotic wagers, and I think either could win at juicy mutuels. Horses that are likely to be short prices that I do not like include Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk and Papa Clem. I think it will be very difficult to leave Pioneer out of the exotics, but will not have that problem with the other two. WHO IS THE CAT GOING WITH? I know most of you scroll immediately to this section, even if I put it last in the hope you read my stuff. Even though I did not put in the time I have in other years because of time constraints, Barton showed no interest at all until I was writing about one of the entrants. He circled around me, brushing his tail against my legs, then jumping into my lap, purring loudly and nuzzling me as I wrote about one horse. That one is Desert Party. Is it because he is out of a Tabasco Cat mare? How do I know? I do know that when I started writing about the next one on the list – Flying Private – he jumped down as if someone had just opened a can of tuna.

One comment on “HORSE RACING”

Mark Miller on May 15, 2014 at 5:25 pm said:

Enjoying your analyses. I hope that I’m correct that Chrome is the real deal in the Preakness (then again I thought Orb was a sure for the Triple after last year’s Derby). My gut tells me that he destroys this field.

Tom Noonan

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