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All posts for the month April, 2012

If there is any agreement among the polarized factions in the current political spectrum, it is that this year’s crop of Republican candidates for the Presidency is one of the weakest in years.  That Mitt Romney could not immediately dispatch the likes of Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich leads one to question his strength in the general election.  Whatever you think of Barack Obama, he has demonstrated that he is one tough, savvy politician.  GOP characterizations of him as a “Chicago politician” would only seem to underscore that point.

So we should expect that the eventual GOP nominee is going to deal with an opponent who will not favor colonizing the moon, banning contraception or being able to identify agencies of the United States government or countries where American service people are involved.  It is becoming apparent that any effort by the President to raise an issue will be met by the rote response that it is not a “real issue,” an argument that may not be that far removed from the efforts to suggest that Obama is not a “real American.”  Here are some of the issues that are not “real:”

  • Rights of women:  If memory serves (and it often does not), when the “Tea Party Congress” came to office in 2011, one of their main issues was limiting the right of women to choose an abortion.  While they had not campaigned on this, preferring instead (and inconsistently) to focus on too much “big government,” abortion rights became a major matter.  We have since seen a flurry of activity on this, including the repulsively intrusive requirement that women undergo vaginal ultrasounds before exercising a Constitutionally-protected right to terminate a pregnancy.  Then there was the flap over whether an employer (not just those affiliated with a religious institution) could prevent insurance carriers from covering contraceptive services, which 98 per cent of American women of child-bearing age have received.  What was the GOP response?  John McCain, as quoted by Irin Carmom in Salon, said this “distract[s] citizens from real issues that really matter.”  Upset about vaginal intrusions?  Romney backer Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania advised women to “close your eyes.”  (From Evan McMorris-Santoro in Talking Points Memo.)
  • Fairness of tax code:  While there may be universal agreement on the need to change our tax code, there are sharp differences between the parties on the best way to do that.  The President has proposed the “Buffet rule” that would ensure that millionaires pay at least as much as middle-income tax payers now do.  When confronted on PBS’ NewsHour with the statistic that the top 400 earners in America pay an average rate of 18%  –  less than many middle-income earners  –  Republican strategist Douglas Holtz-Eakin who was a top adviser to George W. Bush and the McCain campaign  –  decried the “pointless battle about fairness.”  And let us not forget Mitt Romney’s statement that the growing inequality among Americans is a matter best discussed in “quiet rooms.”
  • Interest rates on college loans:  I found it remarkable when I learned that the total indebtedness on college loans now exceeds that of credit card obligations.  It is well-established that the unemployment rate for recent college grads exceeds that of the population in general, so the notion that interest rates would double on July 1 would seem to warrant some discussion.  Not to House Speaker John Boehner who referred to the President’s speeches at college campuses last week as a “fake fight,” ”pathetic” and “beneath the dignity of the White House.”  Speaking to voters on an issue that affects them is “beneath the dignity” of the President?  Perhaps he shares Romney’s concern that such matters only be discussed in the “quiet rooms” frequented by Republican donors.

There is, of course, a raft of nonsense that passes for political discourse in our country.  While selection of Romney’s choice for the Vice-Presidency is a significant matter  –  just look at the last two Republican nominees  –  there is no news about it, just pointless speculation.  That beats, however, the complete foolishness about who will be the parties’ nominees in 2016.  Chris Matthews was positively giddy in raising the possibility that Hilary Clinton would face off with Rick Santorum.  All of this is much easier than an informed, fact-based discussion of real issues, even those Republicans would like to ignore because they are inconvenient.

Since the general election campaign began several weeks ago following Rick Santorum’s concession to reality, the speculation has been rife over what face Mitt Romney will wear.  The answer to that question is as simple as it is obvious:  whatever it takes for him to win.

A more interesting inquiry is how the Obama campaign will seek to portray him, with there being two camps within the reelection effort.  One view is that Romney should be portrayed as an endless flip-flopper who can be expected to shake the Etch A Sketch in order to appeal to an electorate not as ideologically right-wing as the Tea Party Republicans.  The other view, championed by Bill Clinton, is to put Romney in a corner surrounded by the right-wing rhetoric from the Republican primaries.  It is interesting that Clinton, who was borderline nasty during the 2008 Democratic primaries, has emerged as Obama’s most effective surrogate and perhaps even his most valued adviser.

Romney has already started walking away from his primary positions.  After being the most strident GOP voice on immigration during the debates, he now thinks that Marco Rubio’s version of the DREAM Act is worth looking at.  When the President took to college campuses to speak out against increasing the interest rate on student loans, Romney agreed quickly even though he was opposed to such notions earlier this year.  Romney did not mention how the government should make up the $6 billion annual expense of keeping the interest rates at their current level, but we know from prior statements it will not be from increasing tax revenue or cutting defense spending.  When he does mention cutting specific programs, it has always been from small-bore items such as the National Endowment for the Arts and, of course, Planned Parenthood.

While there are those benighted souls who think the ensuing general election campaign will be about issues such as economic policy or foreign affairs, the real campaign began last week with Hilary Rosen’s comment that Ann Romney “never worked a day in her life.”  The Romney campaign, true to its long standing policy of never letting reality get in the way of an opportune political shot, erroneously described Rosen as a Obama “advisor,” and attempted to ratchet up the debate by saying it was Obama, not the Republican Party, that had launched the real “war on women.”  Let’s set aside for a minute whether an ill-advised comment by a previously unknown Democrat is equivalent to a potential Romney Vice-Presidential candidate being in favor of mandating vaginal probes prior to a woman exercising a constitutionally protected right to an abortion, Ann Romney’s lack of work outside her home is not one of our nation’s most pressing problems.

This week brings us the next great issue.  The Daily Caller, a right-leaning site revealed the startling information that Barack Obama has eaten dog.  This revelation, jumped on with considerable gusto by the Romney campaign, is intended to deflect criticism of the Republican nominee-to-be’s driving from Boston to Canada with the family dog riding on the roof of the car.  What’s the source for this scoop?  Uhh … actually it is Obama’s book Dreams from My Father in which he described living in Indonesia as a child.  Again, setting aside the inanity of this factoid as newsworthy, why is the Romney campaign reminding (or informing) people of one of the true embarrassments from their candidate’s personal life?  Unless you are a reader of Gail Collins’ column, this is a topic you may never have encountered. And how does a meal of a child living in a foreign country equate with the actions of an adult engaging in behavior that borders on animal abuse?

Stay tuned for next week’s dramatic news story.

With the Kentucky Derby less than four weeks away, the recent round of prep races has done little to clarify a decidedly murky picture.  Only two major preps remain:  next weekend’s Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes.  Although I have opined that the Blue Grass should no longer be considered a major prep, it has attracted Hansen, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  To add to the confusion, two horses that had been well-regarded before their last prep races, Mark Valeski and El Padrino, are not on the top 20 list of graded stakes earnings that will determine entry into the field if the race is oversubscribed as it undoubtedly will be.

Union Rags has long been regarded as a top contender with a record that was only a head away from being a perfect 5-for-5, the only defeat being after a difficult trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He had another less-than-desirable journey in the Florida Derby in running third behind Take Charge Indy and the unheralded Reveron.  If you cannot overcome difficulty in an eight horse field, how are you going to deal with the chaos that so often ensues in the 20-horse field that is the Kentucky Derby?  Add to that the fact that his Beyer top of 95 was first run in August at Saratoga (matched by the same number in the Fountain of Youth), and there are several reasons to not regard this guy as the favorite.  Take Charge Indy‘s winning figure of 95 is a tick below his career top, and he has a jockey named Calvin H. Borel as his expected rider in Louisville.  The second and fourth finishers, Reveron and  El Padrino, may also being going to Churchill Downs but will have to wait for horses above them on the graded stakes earnings list to not enter, since they are 24 and 23 on that list respectively.

The UAE Derby was run the same day as the Florida event, and produced the highest speed figure run by any Derby hopeful.  Daddy Long Legs earned a Racing Post Rating of 117 which, by my calculation, is the equivalent of a 105 Beyer.  Despite this win, he is unlikely to be viewed as a leading Derby contender since the Dubai race, now run on a synthetic surface, has never produced a top Derby finisher.  More to the point, in the colt’s only dirt race, he finished 12th by almost 20 lengths in last year’s Juvenile at Churchill Downs.

On the following day, Hero of Order upset the Louisiana Derby at odds of 109-1, beating the well-regarded Mark Valeski who finished second.  It was not, however, as much of an upset as it appeared.  Yes, the winner had a career record of only one win and one second in 13 career starts, but his Beyer top of 87 in the Risen Star stakes fit in with this largely mediocre group.  Mark Valeski had earned a 98 in the Risen Star, beating the fourth-place finisher Hero of Order by six lengths, but that race looks like a negative key race given that the winner, El Padrino, showed nothing in the Florida Derby.  The winning Louisiana Derby Beyer of 90 suggests that the Kentucky Derby winner will not be coming out of this group.

Last weekend we saw the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and the Illinois Derby.  The mid-Western race is only considered a prep because the winner came back and won at Churchill in 2002.  Other than that, I think the race has a record similar to that of the UAE Derby.  This year’s version was won by Done Talking, a colt who finished 20 lengths behind Hansen in the Remsen.  His winning Beyer of 86 was better than the last race Beyer of any entrant save one, and is unlikely to produce much of a bandwagon going to Louisville.

The other two races were unique in this season of preps in that the top two choices in each race ran to form, producing exciting finishes.  The still undefeated Gemologist held off Godolphin’s Alpha in winning Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial.  His winning Beyer of 98 is near the top for this year’s final prep races.  At Santa Anita, I’ll Have Another, a 43-1 winner in his prior start, held off Creative Cause, the winner of three graded stakes and third-place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  The winning Beyer of 94 was below the figs run by this pair in their last outing.